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Topic # 59029 25-Mar-2010 11:03
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Currently, the govt. are proposing $1.5b to subsidise the fibre roll out initiative (which will most likely be matched by a company in the private sector). There has been a lot of discussion on how this is no way near enough, I agree, but more so that the cost will prevent NZer's from having access to fttd.

With current speculation about fttd, I see it as a realistic future for NZ. so the debate lies whether we do it now... or in ten years (when it is possible well over due and NZ is caught, again, catching up with the rest of the world).

IMO, with the knowledge and understanding we have now, I don't see the point in leaving it for another x amount of years. We have around 40 companies who are interested and wish to participate in the govts. initiative (NZCFH) along with Vectors strong campaign (the straw ads) which gaining a lot of awareness for the general public.
I feel now is the time - the internet will ONLY become more and more important and influential in our lives so why not have the best!

#fttd

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  Reply # 311222 25-Mar-2010 12:01
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Hi, it's nice to have a strong debate around the cost vs. benefit, but there are a few issues that don't really seem to have been talked through, mostly the negative ones.

Why do you think FTTD is a better prospect than expanding the existing FTTN rollout Telecom have in place from a cost/benefit model?

How much do you think an ISP is going to be paying a month for each FTTD line, and at what speeds (50, 100, 1000)? Full speed all the way to ISP's handover gear?

What is the wholesale model actually going to be? Crown Fibre Data centres where ISP's deploy their own kit and build their own access products over the "raw" fibre?
(So will CF also be putting in the backhaul needed? Thats a lot of very expensive 100GB lines)




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  Reply # 311268 25-Mar-2010 13:33
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From a basic point of view, having FTTD enables users to access the full benefits that fibre has to offer - not just the benefits only to the node then a slow connection from there to the house. As the Vector campaign puts it, it's like having water run through straws to your house from the mains. . Here are some basic comparisons of FTTD:FTTN which clearly portray FTTD's benefits:

FTTN might get another 10 years out of the copper.
FTTD is built to last at least 40 years and to be ready in 10 years when copper expires, we must start now.
FTTN implies DSL technology, which is highly asymmetrical, i.e. download speeds are far higher than upload speeds. With more and more user content being uploaded this will become more and more of an issue.
FTTD offers fully symmetrical connections.

FTTN gives a variable access speed that depends on how far away you are from the cabinet.
FTTD gives a known deterministic access speed that does not degrade with distance up to the maximum allowed by the standards.

It will depend on which ISP consumers decide to go with in terms of cost and speeds - but IMO, by the time NZ reaches its final goal of FTTD, there will be plenty of ISP's and offers available from a wide range of sources as it will become a strong market - and correct me if i'm worng, but the more competition we have for the best speeds in the world - the less it will cost in the future. Sure it will cost a bit more than what we are currently paying - but right now we're paying for substandard material which is soon to be outdated - and I've heard all too often of people paying large sums of money for so called 'fast braodband connections' while actually receiving painfully slow ones - some becoming almost unusable which is simply a nusance for consumers - Fibre would enable much more reliability for the cost involved.
However, no one is in a position to fully answer the topic question of cost at this point, but it is unlikely that the house owner would have to bear the full cost of the connection, but I could be wrong.

I'm not sayign FTTD is the godly creation fit to cure mankind - I'm simply pointing out its uses for the modern technical advances which are being made on the digital front, and that copper will soon be outdated so the costs we bear now, Will eventually reach much greater benefits for those who use it!

#fttd


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  Reply # 311271 25-Mar-2010 13:54
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I think you should also add a disclaimer to all your discussions that you are starting which clearly states that your AD Company is getting paid by vector to advertise on their behalf

This will offer transparency I think as all readers know there is a definitely a vested interest here so these opinions are more likely to be Vectors than your own.


Thats my thoughts anyway.




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Ultimate Geek
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  Reply # 311275 25-Mar-2010 14:00
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As the Vector campaign puts it, it's like having water run through straws to your house from the mains.


I guess this is why I'm asking what kind of speeds you are talking about enabling?
How many drips/second is your first Fibre product Vs. the potential for VDSL2/Bonded VDSL2?

FTTN might get another 10 years out of the copper.
FTTD is built to last at least 40 years and to be ready in 10 years when copper expires, we must start now.

Not sure if that is true at all, how about the option of extending an existing FTTN network into FTTD rather than building a completely new one from scratch?
In the next 10 years, what wireless technology will evolve that may enable hybrid services delivered over both wireless base stations and fixed lines?

FTTN implies DSL technology, which is highly asymmetrical, i.e. download speeds are far higher than upload speeds. With more and more user content being uploaded this will become more and more of an issue.
FTTD offers fully symmetrical connections.

Agreed, but uploads are usually not as time-sensitive as downloads, and the upload speeds for VDSL2/bonded VDSL2 are more than adequate.
FTTN gives a variable access speed that depends on how far away you are from the cabinet.
FTTD gives a known deterministic access speed that does not degrade with distance up to the maximum allowed by the standards.

No argument here, the backhaul provisioning and contention does become quite interesting though.

It will depend on which ISP consumers decide to go with in terms of cost and speeds

I don't think you got my point here, all ISP's will have to pay Crown Fibre "line rental" for each customer, and the Government will regulate this price. One commentator a couple of days ago put that at $65/month per line, before any ISP costs to provision a port and bandwidth at the end of the fibre, nevermind a profit margin or support costs.
Contrast this with the current UBA price ISP's are unhappy about, at $22ish/month.


There is an awful lot of spin around the benefits of FTTD, but people need to start asking the questions around how much it is really going to cost vs. the benefits we imagine it will bring compared to the alternatives.

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  Reply # 311279 25-Mar-2010 14:04
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Phil, they have already pointed that out ;)
http://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?ForumId=49&TopicId=58629

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  Reply # 311283 25-Mar-2010 14:11
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Cymro: I don't think you got my point here, all ISP's will have to pay Crown Fibre "line rental" for each customer, and the Government will regulate this price. One commentator a couple of days ago put that at $65/month per line, before any ISP costs to provision a port and bandwidth at the end of the fibre, nevermind a profit margin or support costs.
Contrast this with the current UBA price ISP's are unhappy about, at $22ish/month.



Maurice Williamson started quoting figures of $18 per month before the last election. This was a figure scoffed at by many people at the time as being about 50% less than a sustainable access cost.

With our low population density rollout costs are always going to be very significant.

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  Reply # 311284 25-Mar-2010 14:13
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Yep cheers Ross,

But if people didn't read that thread and see that he is actively getting paid to promote Vectors opinion and lets face it thats probably the sole reason Stuart is here , i just think if he starts these type of discussions then a disclaimer is probably appropiate at the beginning....

Thats my thoughts anyway and I bow down to the Mods in all things on this forum Sealed




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  Reply # 311296 25-Mar-2010 14:47
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I think in this case a disclaimer should be present in all posts. Perhaps in the signature?





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  Reply # 311307 25-Mar-2010 15:11
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sbiddle:
Cymro: I don't think you got my point here, all ISP's will have to pay Crown Fibre "line rental" for each customer, and the Government will regulate this price. One commentator a couple of days ago put that at $65/month per line, before any ISP costs to provision a port and bandwidth at the end of the fibre, nevermind a profit margin or support costs.
Contrast this with the current UBA price ISP's are unhappy about, at $22ish/month.



Maurice Williamson started quoting figures of $18 per month before the last election. This was a figure scoffed at by many people at the time as being about 50% less than a sustainable access cost.

With our low population density rollout costs are always going to be very significant.


CommsDay Australasia had a very interesting analysis on the Australian NBN and potential wholesale costs 2 weeks ago, placing them somewhere around $A65-70 for the ISP, and showing that for the business case to stack up required a bullish growth in broadband spend and penetration of services.

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  Reply # 311322 25-Mar-2010 15:43
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Cymro:
sbiddle:
Cymro: I don't think you got my point here, all ISP's will have to pay Crown Fibre "line rental" for each customer, and the Government will regulate this price. One commentator a couple of days ago put that at $65/month per line, before any ISP costs to provision a port and bandwidth at the end of the fibre, nevermind a profit margin or support costs.
Contrast this with the current UBA price ISP's are unhappy about, at $22ish/month.



Maurice Williamson started quoting figures of $18 per month before the last election. This was a figure scoffed at by many people at the time as being about 50% less than a sustainable access cost.

With our low population density rollout costs are always going to be very significant.


CommsDay Australasia had a very interesting analysis on the Australian NBN and potential wholesale costs 2 weeks ago, placing them somewhere around $A65-70 for the ISP, and showing that for the business case to stack up required a bullish growth in broadband spend and penetration of services.


There have also been a few people lately quoting current FTTH prices here in NZ and comparing them to costs for any new FTTH rollouts which is rather flawed and totally ignores plenty of things. I'd be interested to know (any maybe Phil can tell us if it's not top secret) what the access cost is for customer on the current FTTH rollouts?

Deploying fibre in new subvisions is dead simple compared to upgrading existing infrastructure - you've got easy access to ducts and don't need to go digging up any streets or footpaths.


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  Reply # 311340 25-Mar-2010 16:29
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Yep, have to agree with you there on the greenfields installs being a lot cheaper.

The whole backhaul/wholesale model being proposed is what interests me the most, is CF going to be providing full line speed (or varied price/speed products?) over the fibre to regional handover points?
CF data centres where ISP's will deploy their gear to terminate the connections?
Will we see new Wholesale players entering the market to soak up this sunk cost and compete with Telecom Wholesale?



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  Reply # 311624 26-Mar-2010 13:51
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Sorry for any misunderstanding - but yes I am working for the ad agency who is supporting Vectors campaign to roll out Fibre to the Door.

And it is true that I am no expert on the subject but I do, however, agree with what Vector are trying to do along with many others. It is also quite beneficial, to me, to read what the real issues are - which is happening now! I can now take a much stronger view on the subject with the knowledge Geekzone has provided me - but for now, I think I'll leave the technical details to you guys.

Cheers

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  Reply # 311629 26-Mar-2010 14:19
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sbiddle:
Cymro:
sbiddle:
Cymro: I don't think you got my point here, all ISP's will have to pay Crown Fibre "line rental" for each customer, and the Government will regulate this price. One commentator a couple of days ago put that at $65/month per line, before any ISP costs to provision a port and bandwidth at the end of the fibre, nevermind a profit margin or support costs.
Contrast this with the current UBA price ISP's are unhappy about, at $22ish/month.



Maurice Williamson started quoting figures of $18 per month before the last election. This was a figure scoffed at by many people at the time as being about 50% less than a sustainable access cost.

With our low population density rollout costs are always going to be very significant.


CommsDay Australasia had a very interesting analysis on the Australian NBN and potential wholesale costs 2 weeks ago, placing them somewhere around $A65-70 for the ISP, and showing that for the business case to stack up required a bullish growth in broadband spend and penetration of services.


There have also been a few people lately quoting current FTTH prices here in NZ and comparing them to costs for any new FTTH rollouts which is rather flawed and totally ignores plenty of things. I'd be interested to know (any maybe Phil can tell us if it's not top secret) what the access cost is for customer on the current FTTH rollouts?

Deploying fibre in new subvisions is dead simple compared to upgrading existing infrastructure - you've got easy access to ducts and don't need to go digging up any streets or footpaths.






Not really top secret Steve but I really can’t pass on the cost of deployment as I don’t actually know , WxC's model has never been in the business of owning and deploying major infrastructure and were never a believer in LLU solving NZ’s broadband issue as the intentions of the bigger providers was to build a Fiber Cabinet network that would bring much improved access delivery, we are happy with a competitive wholesale access model and this is what we do now with the current FTTH deployments in trial with Telecom, they will be providing wholesale access to SP (Service Providers) to deliver their own services on Telecom Retail included so we will all .

 

Remember also for new Fiber deployments in Subdivisions a lot of cost is also carried by the developers

 

I see that a lot of people think that the Whole of NZ needs high speed internet to survive and whilst I agree that the overall speed and performance need to increase and improve do we think it’s hugely justified that the government needs to spend Billions of dollars on Fibre to the door whereas improvements in copper technology and aggressive rollouts will deliver big improvements for our national network, and I believe once providers move of the ATM backbone with artificial 32k limits (this is the cause of most current DSL contention and speed issues)on to IP network core a huge improvement will be seen so the questions will need to be asked will Billions of dollars of government money benefit the masses, and the important one to also remember folks is our bottleneck right now is INTERNATIONAL !!!! the cost to SP’s is huge so a good look at this would probably help as well.

 

Having been deploying FTTH for a while now and whilst not directly passing on numbers , the actual take up rate of customers wanting a High Speed 30/6 Mb product vs a Voice Only product is very interesting, I would like to see what people thing the ratio would be of the numbers of new home owners and their requirements for HIS (High Speed Internet) vs LSI (Low Speed Internet) which is basically a voice only offering.

 

Post your best guess here J

 




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  Reply # 311642 26-Mar-2010 14:59
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maverick: Having been deploying FTTH for a while now and whilst not directly passing on numbers , the actual take up rate of customers wanting a High Speed 30/6 Mb product vs a Voice Only product is very interesting, I would like to see what people thing the ratio would be of the numbers of new home owners and their requirements for HIS (High Speed Internet) vs LSI (Low Speed Internet) which is basically a voice only offering.

Post your best guess here J

Phil, I had a good look around the Fusion over Fibre part of your website, and nowhere does it give the specs of the LSI service.  All it says is this:


Basic Internet & Phone Service

Without knowing what the specs are, it's hard to post a guess as to the likely uptake.

My gut feeling would be that very few people are prepared to stump up for the 30/6 VHSI product because for most people, it is a gross overkill.

In my own household, my wife and I use the internet a lot, but raw connection speed is not the determining factor of our experience, International speed is as you pointed out earlier.  The only time where this really comes into play is with streaming video clips, as we have discussed many times.  Neither of us are into torrenting, so it is the international throughput for a single connection which is key, and that is something which is still less than ideal with most ISPs in NZ.

I can't see anything changing in that regard, until we have a competing cable to the SCC, which is ironically not needed solely for capacity reasons, but merely to bring some much-needed competition into the marketplace.

For the above reasons, I don't see that FTTH will really bring any significant benefit on its own, even though it is a really cool technology and all that...





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  Reply # 311652 26-Mar-2010 15:21
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Opps should have said, VHSI 30/6 and VLSI 128k




Yes I am a employee of WxC (My Profile) ... but I do have my own opinions as well Wink

             

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