The Future of WP7 at Nokia

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#505125 11-Aug-2011 17:55

I think they dug themselves into a massive crater one shovel full at a time.

But the idea that making the N9 which by all accounts is a really cool phone ... and then not selling it to the people who could afford it and would want it?

That is like saying: "Ya know what? This shovel stuff is too slow, where is the dynamite?"

Just plain crazy.

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BrentR

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#505140 11-Aug-2011 18:42

crackrdbycracku: I bet we won't see the N9 in NZ, but then again maybe we are a developing economy?

Have you not seen this page? http://www.nokia.co.nz/find-products/all-phones/nokia-n9/check-availability?intc=ncomprod-fw-ilc-bdy-nokian9_228x96-na-nokiacom-nz-en-1todtmt44c868

alexx

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#505159 11-Aug-2011 19:35

No good news here for the future of Windows Phone.

http://www.informationweek.com/news/windows/microsoft_news/231300314

InformationWeek:
Microsoft's share of the smartphone market is plummeting at an alarming rate--so much so that the company's last ditch effort to make an impact in mobility, Windows Phone 7, may be irrelevant by the time it manages to ship the much-anticipated Mango update and realize its partnership with Nokia later this year.

Data released Thursday by comScore shows that Microsoft's average share of the U.S. smartphone OS market over the three months ended in June came in at just 5.8%, down from 7.5% from the three months ended in March, and down from 8% for the three months ended in January.

Meanwhile Nokia's US plan is Windows Phone only:

http://www.informationweek.com/news/mobility/smart_phones/231300596

InformationWeek:
Nokia will no longer sell smartphones and feature phones based on the Symbian operating system in the U.S. once the company's partnership with Microsoft takes effect with the debut of devices powered by Windows Phone 7.

Nokia also now has no plans to introduce its highly anticipated, MeeGo-based N9 into the U.S. The device, viewed by many pundits as the company's slickest offering to date, features a unique touch screen that lets users return to the main interface from any app with a single swipe of the finger.

I'm not sure why a dual operating system strategy couldn't have worked for Nokia... better to have a plan B, than be left fighting over 5.8% of the market. Certainly having more than one option hasn't hurt Samsung and others.

Having said that, do Windows Phone threads even belong in a Symbian forum?

Putting Meego threads here make sense - at least Symbian and Meego share some development tools.
e.g. Qt/QML.

#include <standard.disclaimer>

billgates

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#505164 11-Aug-2011 19:45

alexx: No good news here for the future of Windows Phone.

http://www.informationweek.com/news/windows/microsoft_news/231300314

InformationWeek:
Microsoft's share of the smartphone market is plummeting at an alarming rate--so much so that the company's last ditch effort to make an impact in mobility, Windows Phone 7, may be irrelevant by the time it manages to ship the much-anticipated Mango update and realize its partnership with Nokia later this year.

Data released Thursday by comScore shows that Microsoft's average share of the U.S. smartphone OS market over the three months ended in June came in at just 5.8%, down from 7.5% from the three months ended in March, and down from 8% for the three months ended in January.

The marketshare is declining for Windows mobile, not Windows Phone. Windows Phone's marketshare is only going up but at a very slow rate. Windows mobile is dropping at a faster rate every month than the adoption of Windows Phone by customer hence you see the drop for Microsoft.

The good news is that in May the marketshare for WP7 was 5.8% as per comscore and in June it was also 5.8% so it looks like that Windows Phone sales have started to pick up and hopefully the next comscore report will show an updwards marketshare trend for Microsoft.

Do whatever you want to do man.

alexx

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#505170 11-Aug-2011 19:53

billgates:

The marketshare is declining for Windows mobile, not Windows Phone. Windows Phone's marketshare is only going up but at a very slow rate. Windows mobile is dropping at a faster rate every month than the adoption of Windows Phone by customer hence you see the drop for Microsoft.

The good news is that in May the marketshare for WP7 was 5.8% as per comscore and in June it was also 5.8% so it looks like that Windows Phone sales have started to pick up and hopefully the next comscore report will show an updwards marketshare trend for Microsoft.

However that means that the loss of Windows mobile market share is not being fully replaced by Windows Phone marketshare. I'm not sure how anyone can see 8% in Q1 down to 5.8% in Q2 as a plus for Microsoft.

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crackrdbycracku

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#505171 11-Aug-2011 19:58

BrentR:
crackrdbycracku: I bet we won't see the N9 in NZ, but then again maybe we are a developing economy?

Have you not seen this page? http://www.nokia.co.nz/find-products/all-phones/nokia-n9/check-availability?intc=ncomprod-fw-ilc-bdy-nokian9_228x96-na-nokiacom-nz-en-1todtmt44c868

No I hadn't. It looks like an amazing phone. Such a pity that there will be so little support from developers.

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billgates

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#505174 11-Aug-2011 20:01

alexx:

However that means that the loss of Windows mobile market share is not being fully replaced by Windows Phone marketshare. I'm not sure how anyone can see 8% in Q1 down to 5.8% in Q2 as a plus for Microsoft.

I am not seeing it as a overall plus but what I explained above was that, every month since the introduction of Windows Phone or even earler than that, Microsoft's marketshare has been going down every month. In May the marketshare was 5.8% and in June, it stayed steady at 5.8%. This was not the case for any of the earlier months. Just saying that finally Windows Phone sales have caught with the loss of Windows Mobile sales drop that has been happening for good couple of years now. Hopefully the next comscore Quarterly report will actually show marketshare slightly going up for Microsoft.

Also, don't take the reports too seriously because Nielsen reported Microsoft's US marketshare to be at 9%. So which company would you believe?

http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/?p=28516

The only report's I bother to consider are IDC and Gartner. Their findings are very similar most of the time.

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nikrolls

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#505411 12-Aug-2011 11:45

crackrdbycracku:
BrentR:
crackrdbycracku: I bet we won't see the N9 in NZ, but then again maybe we are a developing economy?

Have you not seen this page? http://www.nokia.co.nz/find-products/all-phones/nokia-n9/check-availability?intc=ncomprod-fw-ilc-bdy-nokian9_228x96-na-nokiacom-nz-en-1todtmt44c868

No I hadn't. It looks like an amazing phone. Such a pity that there will be so little support from developers.?

This is again speculation made popular by US blogs who, let's face it, make their money by stirring the pot. I am involved in the MeeGo developer community myself and I can assure you it is very strong, especially after the foundation that Qt on Symbian has laid.

crackrdbycracku

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#505583 12-Aug-2011 14:58

nikrolls:
crackrdbycracku:
BrentR:
crackrdbycracku: I bet we won't see the N9 in NZ, but then again maybe we are a developing economy?

Have you not seen this page? http://www.nokia.co.nz/find-products/all-phones/nokia-n9/check-availability?intc=ncomprod-fw-ilc-bdy-nokian9_228x96-na-nokiacom-nz-en-1todtmt44c868

No I hadn't. It looks like an amazing phone. Such a pity that there will be so little support from developers.?
This is again speculation made popular by US blogs who, let's face it, make their money by stirring the pot. I am involved in the MeeGo developer community myself and I can assure you it is very strong, especially after the foundation that Qt on Symbian has laid.

I don't know how the rest of the world feels but to me the 500,000 apps in the Apple store don't really impress me. How many fart noise makers does a person need? Me? 0

What I want is about 10 really good apps. Nokia has the best Maps there are, that's one. The others shouldn't be that hard to do.

I wonder what the plan is if the N9 is sold at a realistic price and actually becomes popular. The script says Nokia sells low cost, low spec phones to 'developing nations' and people who don't know any better until the WP7 (now WP7.5 by some rumours) are available.

But what if people actually say "We want the N9!"?

We want a new proper (meego) Nokia phone. We don't want to wait for a Windows phone, we don't trust them after the previous problems and we won't buy them.

Publicly there is nothing to stop Nokia from starting 'plan B'. But would they? Are there private reasons they have to stay with MS?

Now that would be fun.

CrackedbyCracku

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Technofreak

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#505819 12-Aug-2011 23:11

I don't know how the rest of the world feels but to me the 500,000 apps in the Apple store don't really impress me. How many fart noise makers does a person need? Me? 0

What I want is about 10 really good apps. Nokia has the best Maps there are, that's one. The others shouldn't be that hard to do.

I feel the same way. So many apps are not all that useful and of the ones that are, many are just a different flavour of the same thing. Nokia (or Ovi) maps is brilliant, as for other i use most, there's four square, You tube, Opera, Skype, Sports tracker, Upcode, and Quick Office.

I wonder what the plan is if the N9 is sold at a realistic price and actually becomes popular. The script says Nokia sells low cost, low spec phones to 'developing nations' and people who don't know any better until the WP7 (now WP7.5 by some rumours) are available.

But what if people actually say "We want the N9!"?

We want a new proper (meego) Nokia phone. We don't want to wait for a Windows phone, we don't trust them after the previous problems and we won't buy them.

Publicly there is nothing to stop Nokia from starting 'plan B'. But would they? Are there private reasons they have to stay with MS?

Now that would be fun.

CrackedbyCracku

I've pondered this question too, and I think it's a very real possibility that people will want the N9 and Meego successors to the N9. You just have to look at the reviews the N9 has received even from reviewers in the US who have bagged Nokia in the past. In fact I believe Meego is Nokias's plan "B".

I also given some thought as to why the N9 is rumoured not to be sold in certain markets particularly the US. The developed/developing market is a red herring. I think it has all to do with not pinching the thunder from WP7. I think Meego right now has to the goods to be better than WP7 with no doubt further improvements for Meego as it is developed.

The success of WP7 for MS and Nokia's immediate future in the US market hangs on the success of the new Nokia WP7 phones. I believe the US market is going to be initially the major market for the Nokia WP7 phones. I suspect there may be private reasons between Nokia and MS. I don't think MS wants to see the N9 go head to head with the WP7 Nokias, hence no N9's in the US, and perhaps some other major western markets like the UK.

If WP7 goes well then Meego will probably fade however if WP7 bombs then I think we will see Meego flourish. Nokia's plan "B".

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crackrdbycracku

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#505964 13-Aug-2011 13:14

Technofreak:

I've pondered this question too, and I think it's a very real possibility that people will want the N9 and Meego successors to the N9. You just have to look at the reviews the N9 has received even from reviewers in the US who have bagged Nokia in the past. In fact I believe Meego is Nokias's plan "B".

I also given some thought as to why the N9 is rumoured not to be sold in certain markets particularly the US. The developed/developing market is a red herring. I think it has all to do with not pinching the thunder from WP7. I think Meego right now has to the goods to be better than WP7 with no doubt further improvements for Meego as it is developed.

The success of WP7 for MS and Nokia's immediate future in the US market hangs on the success of the new Nokia WP7 phones. I believe the US market is going to be initially the major market for the Nokia WP7 phones. I suspect there may be private reasons between Nokia and MS. I don't think MS wants to see the N9 go head to head with the WP7 Nokias, hence no N9's in the US, and perhaps some other major western markets like the UK.

If WP7 goes well then Meego will probably fade however if WP7 bombs then I think we will see Meego flourish. Nokia's plan "B".

The more I think about this the more it seems, again, to be the answer to another question. I hate to say this, yeah again, but it is the wrong question.

I agree completely with what you say above. But what undoubtedly seems to be happening appears to be the answer to the question: How can Nokia best advance the interests of Microsoft in their goal to break into the mobile market after failing time and time again?

Does this seem more than a little insane to anybody else?

Yeah, no doubt a very good Meego phone going head to head with a WP7 phone on Nokia hardware would be bad for MS. Better, or worse depending or perspective, yet would be a Nokia range, the N9 at the high end and a mid range lower spec for the rest of us. Nokia would have a major advantage here as they would not be battling it out with all the other Android mid-range phones, this is currently the hardest market in phones in my opinion.

Nokia customers are fanatically loyal. I know I was one, and there is a large part of me which would love for my next smartphone to be a Nokia. I think one of Elop's major failings, externally, is not understanding how much people outside the US want to buy Nokia phones, they are just looking for an excuse.

The question I want an answer to is this: How does sabotaging the N9 and thereby the future of the Meego platform benefit Nokia?

We have spoken at length of Meego being the 'plan B', but that may also be the wrong question. Maybe the question we should be asking is this: Why is Stephen Elop not pursuing a two platform strategy when the only people really benefiting from this are Microsoft?

OK, Elop has spoken at length about not wanting to distract from the goal of producing quality WP7 phones but putting all Nokia' eggs in the unproven MS basket seems a little extreme to me.

I think the reports and reviews of the N9 prove Meego has the potential to be more than 'plan B'. If MS fails, again, in mobile it's not so bad for them they still have PC etc but if Nokia goes down because they threw away Meego and didn't have another option, well that's just sad.

crackedbycracku

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Technofreak

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#505973 13-Aug-2011 14:00

crackrdbycracku:
The question I want an answer to is this: How does sabotaging the N9 and thereby the future of the Meego platform benefit Nokia?

That's a very good question. Two word answer. "It doesn't"

A question I'd like an answer to is how could Stephen Elop say this back in February, "MeeGo had been the collective hope of the company, and we'd come to the conclusion that the emperor had no clothes. It's not a nice thing," and yet a Nokia Meego device and by all reports a very good device, is to be released to the market well before a Nokia WP7 device.

We have spoken at length of Meego being the 'plan B', but that may also be the wrong question. Maybe the question we should be asking is this: Why is Stephen Elop not pursuing a two platform strategy when the only people really benefiting from this are Microsoft?

Another very good question, the cynic in me says Stephen Elop stands to benefit from this well past his time as CEO at Nokia.

Yeah, no doubt a very good Meego phone going head to head with a WP7 phone on Nokia hardware would be bad for MS. Better, or worse depending or perspective, yet would be a Nokia range, the N9 at the high end and a mid range lower spec for the rest of us. Nokia would have a major advantage here as they would not be battling it out with all the other Android mid-range phones, this is currently the hardest market in phones in my opinion.

Nokia customers are fanatically loyal. I know I was one, and there is a large part of me which would love for my next smartphone to be a Nokia. I think one of Elop's major failings, externally, is not understanding how much people outside the US want to buy Nokia phones, they are just looking for an excuse.

As I have said before Nokia needs a point of difference, being just another WP7 handset maker dosen't do it no matter how good WP7 might end up being.

I agree that on the whole Nokia owners are very loyal. I would go even further that are also looking for a smartphone with a difference.

OK, Elop has spoken at length about not wanting to distract from the goal of producing quality WP7 phones but putting all Nokia' eggs in the unproven MS basket seems a little extreme to me.

I think the reports and reviews of the N9 prove Meego has the potential to be more than 'plan B'. If MS fails, again, in mobile it's not so bad for them they still have PC etc but if Nokia goes down because they threw away Meego and didn't have another option, well that's just sad.

crackedbycracku

I agree that it seems a little extreme to put all of your hopes on an OS that's probably a bit more than just unproven it's been around a while now and it's market share is continuing to languish at low levels.

Microsoft could cut WP7 loose tomorrow and it would hardly put a dent in the MS operation, however the outcome for Nokia would be very different if they have all their eggs in the WP7 basket.

One senior Nokia person has left due to being unhappy with the way Stephen Elop is leading Nokia. I would strongly suspect that there are still many at Nokia who still believe in the future of Meego and Symbian and working away to secure the future of these OS's. Even to the point that the N9 is as good as it is rumoured to be solely to prove a point to Mr Elop. If I were at Nokia, right now I would be wanting a plan B.

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crackrdbycracku

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#506658 15-Aug-2011 11:27

Technofreak:

As I have said before Nokia needs a point of difference, being just another WP7 handset maker dosen't do it no matter how good WP7 might end up being.

I agree that on the whole Nokia owners are very loyal. I would go even further that are also looking for a smartphone with a difference.

If I were at Nokia, right now I would be wanting a plan B.

From a Nokia point of view this just gets worse and worse.

http://www.theregister.co.uk/2011/08/12/ms_mango/

It might not be just the Japanese who get to use Windows Phone 7.5, codenamed Mango, next month, as an international rollout is now being rumoured.

Pocket-lint reckons "multiple trusted sources" have told it that on 1 September, Microsoft will start rolling out the new version of its mobile OS to existing, as well as new, customers
Manufacturers received the final version of Mango last month, for integrating into their products, so a 1 September launch would seem timely.
But it wouldn't let Nokia steal the march on the competition by having the first Mango handsets on US shelves, as many imagined Microsoft would allow. Nokia isn't expected to launch its first Windows Phone handset(s) until October, in plenty of time for Christmas, but if everyone else gets to download Mango first then Nokia will be entirely reliant on its new hardware to wow the market.

That's one point of difference gone, against what I have said earlier on it looks more and more like Nokia will be 'just another MS handset maker'. Especially given the past history MS has with hardware partners this is a very bad place to be in. This deal made sense when it looked like Nokia would have a 'special relationship' but now not so much.

the cynic in me says Stephen Elop stands to benefit from this well past his time as CEO at Nokia.

This just looks more and more like Elop is an MS plant acting in the best interests of MS not his own company. For crying out loud, what kind of deal did he sign Nokia up to?

Can someone please tell me I am wrong and point out the error of my ways?

Crackedbycracku

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Technofreak

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#506681 15-Aug-2011 11:50

crackrdbycracku:
That's one point of difference gone, against what I have said earlier on it looks more and more like Nokia will be 'just another MS handset maker'. Especially given the past history MS has with hardware partners this is a very bad place to be in.

Several handset manufacturers have come off second best with Microsoft when it comes to mobile OS's. One I think of is Motorola. What OS are Motorola using now?

Perhaps this is one reason why WP7 has had such a poor uptake. Are most handset manufacturers "running scared" of the Microsoft blight? Was the only way for Microsoft to get a major manufacturer to take on their OS, to get a their man on the inside. Whether or not Stephen Elop is a plant, I would bet a lot of money that Nokia wouldn't have chosen WP7 without him as CEO.

Was Meego as bad a Stephen Elop said it was? I see Sony Ericsonn are listed as possible users of Meego for their handsets.

Can someone please tell me I am wrong and point out the error of my ways?

I don't think you are wrong.

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crackrdbycracku

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#506706 15-Aug-2011 12:27

Several handset manufacturers have come off second best with Microsoft when it comes to mobile OS's. One I think of is Motorola. What OS are Motorola using now?

What I was actually thinking of was the original table PC debacle of the 1990's. MS told hardware partners that there was a great new market for tablet devices in the enterprise space and that they must all build machines to MS specifications to run MS software.

Yeah, and then over ten years later Steve Jobs comes along with an actual understanding of the market and people actually buy the things. Nobody is sure why people tablets as they don't actually do anything a laptop, netbook , phone or desk top can't do, usually faster or cheaper, but the things sell like hot cakes.

If I had been one of those hardware partners who must have sunk millions into the failed MS tablet strategy I would have a hard time forgiving MS. But Elop seems to be heading down similar road with Nokia and phones. The difference is that the phone space is not empty and 'ready for the taking' it is actually populated with established players, Android and iOS.

This is sad as a good Nokia phone running an MS OS which could seamlessly talk to my PC and MS OS tablet, also made by Nokia, would be very attractive to me.

What am I missing?

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