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..So here goes...
I have heard from a handful of highly credible sources in the investment/finance/stock trading industry that 2degreesmobile have no plans what so ever to solidify themselves as a genuine 3rd mobile operator.
The people I have been speaking to monitor investment plans, business plans, markets etc etc VERY closely and are all singing from the same song sheet on this...
According to them and to use their words, 2degreesmobile have made it VERY clear that their business strategy is to sell up to the highest bidder (Vodafone or Telecom) when they reach 5% market share.
The expected bidders according to the people I've been speaking to are obviously Vodafone NZ and Telecom NZ, although presumably TelstraClear or perhaps one of the other ISP's would do their best to find themselves in a position to bid as well.
I personally don't want to beleive this, but my sources are reputable.
Some of the factors of this assessment that I can see supporting what I've said are:
- Trilogy Wireless bought a 51% stake in 2degreesmobile a week before launch.
- Based on what Trilogy have done outside the US to date, there is a pretty clear record of them going into countries (Bolivia, Honduras, Equador to name a few) managing the inception and launch of a mobile network and then selling it off.
- Hautaki Trust appear to have failed in their attempts to raise 20 million dollars by the end of October so you can only assume (based on reports) that their 26% shareholding will be absorbed by Trilogy Wireless and the remaining shareholders. (please someone correct me on this if in fact Hautaki Trust have managed to postpone or meet their deadline.)
- The absorbtion of shares would give the green light for a snap auction of the type I'm suggesting.
- If the MTR issue is not sorted then 2degrees are running at a loss for some of their services which supports the concept of a 'marketshare grab'. Perhaps the whole 'drop the rates mate' campaign is a smoke screen.
- Their pricing and services packages have no complexity to them what so ever which indicates at least for now, no real long term strategy.
- There doesn't appear to be anything in the pipeline in terms of offering new technology or services that Telecom and Vodafone do not currently offer (unless you count EDGE)
Some of the factors of this assessment which do NOT support what I've said so far:
- Why roll out a mobile network in the main centres providing coverage in areas that are already covered by Vodafone and Telecom if they plan to sell up? (its quite common now for every 1 tower, to see 2 more within a few hundred meters of each other)
- They have a clear rollout plan for their network that in theory would never be completeted by the time they reach 5%, yet they have spent a good amount of money suring up the RMA side of things country-wide.
Like I said, I really hope this is a major misjudgement or misinterpretation on the part of my sources and you may or may not agree or understand the relevance of my breakdown of factors listed.
But I would like feedback on this!
Someone tell me it isn't so!
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