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  Reply # 298749 13-Feb-2010 23:08
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Thanks Stuve: I've padded it out a bit.

Q2 08 - 2.366
Q3 08 - 2,401 +35
Q4 08 - 2,427 +26
Q1 09 - 2,464 +37
Q2 09 - 2,502 +38 XT campaign starts April & XT launches in May.
Q3 09 - 2,511 +9 2degrees campaign starts
Q4 09 - 2,484 -27 First Term of 2degrees
Q1 10 - 2,493 +9 Second Term of 2degrees

So a heavy disruption in figures from Q3 09. Hard to tell if its XT or 2D causing disruption. But the gut obviously says its 2D given that their campaign started in Q3 09.

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Reply # 298878 14-Feb-2010 16:24
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In the news report on the drop in cellphone use during peak traffic times, none of the telecos would provide exactly what volumes calls had dropped by.  I would've thought that the total number of customers you have would be in the same boat.

Anyone else surprised that 2 degrees have released this? Too commerically sensitive I would've thought.

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  Reply # 298882 14-Feb-2010 16:41
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nate: In the news report on the drop in cellphone use during peak traffic times, none of the telecos would provide exactly what volumes calls had dropped by.  I would've thought that the total number of customers you have would be in the same boat.

Anyone else surprised that 2 degrees have released this? Too commerically sensitive I would've thought.




There had also been a fall in calls during rush-hour – during the drive to and from work.

Telecom spokeswoman Rebecca Earl said there had been a 2.7 per cent drop in peak-hour calls after the law was introduced.

2degrees customers were reportedly using 5.8 per cent fewer voice minutes during the 4pm to 6pm rush-hour and Vodafone had a 1 per cent decrease in calls.

http://www.stuff.co.nz/national/crime/3318616/Police-report-drop-in-drivers-on-phone


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2degrees mobile

  Reply # 298914 14-Feb-2010 19:50
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Hi all - lots of interesting comments and theories in this thread.
Just responding to Nate around the drop in call volumes during what we call the "driving home time" which is between 4 and 6pm.
To clarify we have not seen a drop in overall call volumes at all - infact the opposite.
But we certainly have seen a change in behaviour - what we call a trend - during the driving home time.
Now that may be reflective of the demographic of our customer base - could we go so far as to say perhaps our customers are more socially responsible and concious in their decision making, or could it even be more reflective of their age and corresponding use of mobile phone that has made them more aware of the changes in legislation. Even we don't know to that level of detail at the moment.
Regardless we are pleased to see that 2degrees customers are heading the changes in legislation and changing their mobile phone usage and behaviour to adjust.
Well done to our customers we say!!
Cheers




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  Reply # 298923 14-Feb-2010 20:17
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cookernz: Thanks Stuve: I've padded it out a bit.

Q2 08 - 2.366
Q3 08 - 2,401 +35
Q4 08 - 2,427 +26
Q1 09 - 2,464 +37
Q2 09 - 2,502 +38 XT campaign starts April & XT launches in May.
Q3 09 - 2,511 +9 2degrees campaign starts
Q4 09 - 2,484 -27 First Term of 2degrees
Q1 10 - 2,493 +9 Second Term of 2degrees

So a heavy disruption in figures from Q3 09. Hard to tell if its XT or 2D causing disruption. But the gut obviously says its 2D given that their campaign started in Q3 09.


voda by itself only tells part of the story.
you also need to look at the Telecom customer base changes too which can be found here on page 6

http://media.nzherald.co.nz/webcontent/document/pdf/telecomresultinvestorpresentation.pdf

also, either your numbers are out of sync,  or the Telecom investor pack is incorrect, because you show the 9k growth being in Q3 09,  and the telecom pack shows it being in Q4 09


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  Reply # 298928 14-Feb-2010 21:25
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Q2 08 - 2.366
Q3 08 - 2,401 +35
Q4 08 - 2,427 +26
Q1 09 - 2,464 +37
Q2 09 - 2,502 +38 XT campaign starts April & XT launches in May.
Q3 09 - 2,511 +9 2degrees campaign starts
Q4 09 - 2,484 -27 First Term of 2degrees
Q1 10 - 2,493 +9 Second Term of 2degrees

NonprayingMantis:

also, either your numbers are out of sync, or the Telecom investor pack is incorrect, because you show the 9k growth being in Q3 09, and the telecom pack shows it being in Q4 09



No, he's showing the 9k growth in Q1 10 which hasn't finished yet (Jan-Mar 2010). Subtract a quarter off each date. (Just a guess - I haven't checked the figures.)




 



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  Reply # 298936 14-Feb-2010 21:46

I got the figures from NBR, I should have got them from Voda themselves I just worked backward, sorry if I got the quarter wrong...

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  Reply # 298949 14-Feb-2010 22:37
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2degrees: Regardless we are pleased to see that 2degrees customers are heading the changes in legislation and changing their mobile phone usage and behaviour to adjust.
Well done to our customers we say!!


My point was more, I'm surprised how forward 2degrees has been in saying the exact number of customers they have.  Using the new cellphone legislation as an example, no-one would say exactly how many fewer minutes were being used at that time (only quoting percentages), so I thought that minute volumes were commerically sensitive - in the same sense, the number of phones on the network would also be commercially sensitive and not for the public to know.

Somehow I don't think either Telecom or Vodafone will be very forthcoming in outlining exactly how many connections they have (fair enough!).

Thanks Bryony for your reply Smile

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  Reply # 298975 15-Feb-2010 08:42
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Using the new cellphone legislation as an example, no-one would say exactly how many fewer minutes were being used at that time (only quoting percentages), so I thought that minute volumes were commerically sensitive - in the same sense, the number of phones on the network would also be commercially sensitive and not for the public to know.



The number of phone minutes used to be published by Telecom, I'm not sure if that still happens.  Like I said a long time ago, when 2Degrees first started, a simple way to find out how much money is being spent with 2 degrees is just to ask dairy owners what proportion of topups are 2 degrees.


Another possible way is to just aim an antenna at a 2 degrees cell tower, and see how much radio activity there is.  By tracking over time you can see how much growth there is.

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  Reply # 298981 15-Feb-2010 09:34
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nate:
2degrees: Regardless we are pleased to see that 2degrees customers are heading the changes in legislation and changing their mobile phone usage and behaviour to adjust.
Well done to our customers we say!!


My point was more, I'm surprised how forward 2degrees has been in saying the exact number of customers they have.  Using the new cellphone legislation as an example, no-one would say exactly how many fewer minutes were being used at that time (only quoting percentages), so I thought that minute volumes were commerically sensitive - in the same sense, the number of phones on the network would also be commercially sensitive and not for the public to know.

Somehow I don't think either Telecom or Vodafone will be very forthcoming in outlining exactly how many connections they have (fair enough!).

Thanks Bryony for your reply Smile



Did you read this thread?



Both Voda and Telecom report how many connections they have by quarter - and this has been the basis of many of the posts (i.e. comparing how many connections voda and telecom got compared to 2D).

Hoiw you managed to miss that I just don't know.

The post directly before your post 298878  for example where cookernz gives a lit sof vodafones connections by quarter for the last 3 years.

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  Reply # 298984 15-Feb-2010 09:42
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TinyTim:


Q2 08 - 2.366
Q3 08 - 2,401 +35
Q4 08 - 2,427 +26
Q1 09 - 2,464 +37
Q2 09 - 2,502 +38 XT campaign starts April & XT launches in May.
Q3 09 - 2,511 +9 2degrees campaign starts
Q4 09 - 2,484 -27 First Term of 2degrees
Q1 10 - 2,493 +9 Second Term of 2degrees

NonprayingMantis:

also, either your numbers are out of sync, or the Telecom investor pack is incorrect, because you show the 9k growth being in Q3 09, and the telecom pack shows it being in Q4 09



No, he's showing the 9k growth in Q1 10 which hasn't finished yet (Jan-Mar 2010). Subtract a quarter off each date. (Just a guess - I haven't checked the figures.)


actually there are two quarters where voda gets 9k growth.

specifically in the Telecom pack they are shown as Q4 08/09 and Q2 09/10

In cookernz they are shown as Q3 09 and Q1 10.

The quarter is usually referred to by reference to financial year, not calendar year,  so Q2 09/10 refers to Oct to Dec 2009 (the last quarter to finish.)






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  Reply # 298988 15-Feb-2010 09:55

there are 4 quarters in the year.

Jan-march April-june (1st half) July-sep Oct-Dec (2nd half)

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  Reply # 298989 15-Feb-2010 09:57
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nate: Somehow I don't think either Telecom or Vodafone will be very forthcoming in outlining exactly how many connections they have (fair enough!).


Both Telecom and Vodafone report these numbers. Vodafone New Zealand might not publish it here, but just read the Vodafone PLC (Group) quarterly reports to get the full numbers.




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  Reply # 298990 15-Feb-2010 10:00
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Stuve: there are 4 quarters in the year.
genius Tongue out


Jan-march April-june (1st half) July-sep Oct-Dec (2nd half)


actually quarters are usually refered to by reference to financial year, not calendar year. The financial year for these companies runs from July 1st  through to June 30th of the following calendar year

So fior Telecom and Vodafone reporting "Q2 2010"   means the quarter of Oct-Dec 2009.

(I feel like I'm repeating myself here)


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  Reply # 299242 15-Feb-2010 20:27
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NonprayingMantis:
Stuve: there are 4 quarters in the year.
genius Tongue out


Jan-march April-june (1st half) July-sep Oct-Dec (2nd half)


actually quarters are usually refered to by reference to financial year, not calendar year. The financial year for these companies runs from July 1st  through to June 30th of the following calendar year

So fior Telecom and Vodafone reporting "Q2 2010"   means the quarter of Oct-Dec 2009.

(I feel like I'm repeating myself here)




Yes, results are normally for the financial year, but they would *usually* say 2009/10 rather than 2010 for the current FY.

Voda says it had 2.5 million customers at the end of 2009 (from their company info page) hence why I thought what Stuve/NBR had as Q1 2010 was actually quarter ending 31/12/09. Doesn't Voda have any of their old media releases on their website any more to check?

(sorry for the trivialities...)




 

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