I hope Russell Stanners had a good Xmas. My new years prediction is that it will be his last one as CEO of Vodafone New Zealand. I also pick 2015 as the year Vodafone could well exit the New Zealand market.
For many years Vodafone New Zealand was the Southern Hemisphere money tree. It was the jewel in the crown of the Newbury based global empire – New Zealand was a far off country where margins were good and the profits kept flowing back to the Northern Hemisphere most years. A blind eye was turned to the operation because it delivered results. Unfortunately that money tree now has a toxic illness. Following in the footsteps of Vodafone Australia which over the course of a few years lost it’s way and has now been haemorrhaging money with no light at the end of the tunnel, Vodafone New Zealand is now following Australia into the same tunnel. Before Grahame Maher was sadly taken from this earth way too early he set up both companies on their respective paths to success. He must now turning in his grave to see what has become of both companies.
In 2012 Vodafone New Zealand purchased TelstraClear for $880 million, a deal that made sense to many, but to others started ringing alarm bells. Telstra had been very frugal in the New Zealand market and their investment had seen traditionally low capital expenditure over a number of years, even when the New Zealand operation was clearly in need of it. Internally inside Telstra many looked at the New Zealand regulatory environment and saw that making inroads was going to be difficult, and that generating a return on large capital investment would probably not occur. Even their plans to build a mobile network were scuttled, part way through the construction of the network in Tauranga the plug was pulled.
It’s safe to say many at Vodafone through the purchase of TelstraClear was a bargain. They inherited a massive nationwide fibre network that would reduce their reliance on Spark and Chorus, a huge residential customer base (TelstraClear had more residential broadband customers than Vodafone) and a relatively large number of corporate customers. Somehow throughout the due diligence process, Vodafone seemed to miss the duct tape that held TelstraClear together. To some TelstraClear was shambolic mess of different technologies, multiple CRM systems and products and services that simply didn’t deliver or work the way they were supposed to. Vodafone did however inherit some fantastic technology – the cable network in Wellington and Christchurch, and the IPTV playout system that now forms the basis of the UFB Vodafone TV offering. They could have done a lot more with this technology, but have chosen not to. They could have done a lot with their Vodafone TV set top box (aka the former T-Box) but chose not to as well. Making the guy who knew all about this redundant during the last round of restructuring before Xmas probably wasn’t the smartest move either.
In many ways however they were too slow at achieving any synergies that should have occurred as a result of the merger, and failed to predict the ruthless cut throat competition that was about to hit the Broadband market in New Zealand. The mass introduction of unlimited plans and price cuts in 2013 and 2014 that have seen retail margins plummet, with many plans only delivering very small margins. Orcon famously said in late 2013 that it took 27 months to make a profit from a customer signed up to a residential DSL based broadband connection.
Buying TelstraClear has certainly burdened Vodafone financially - October 2014 saw Vodafone New Zealand announce a $27.9 million dollar loss – it’s first in 13 years. In the good old days before the TelstraClear merger in 2011 it made a $151 million profit, and sent $130 million back to Newbury. Cost cutting and large scale redundancies have occurred within the company in the past year, and customer service now seems to be at an all time low. Posts of social media suggest average wait times when calling their call centre are often 1hr +, with many people talking about giving up after numerous calls with long wait times.
There have been plenty of rumours over the years about Vodafone pulling out of New Zealand and plenty of mainstream media who have been sucked in by these rumours and written speculative stories. These were all laughable as there was never a reason for Vodafone to want to pull out, but times have now changed. Vodafone sold their Fiji operation in mid 2014, and with Australia showing no sign of a turnaround and New Zealand now facing tough times, it has resulted in some market analysts in the UK now calling for Vodafone to consider it’s position down under. Vodafone Group CEO Vittorio Colao told investors in November that the company would consider selling it’s Australian operation. Logic would dictate that there would be little sense in Vodafone staying solely in New Zealand should it sell in Australia. There is however one major stumbling block – finding a buyer for one (or both) may prove incredibly challenging.
If you’re a Vodafone shareholder you’ll be happy to know Vodafone’s response to it’s financial struggles has been to announce an across the board price increase for most fixed line broadband and phone customers in New Zealand.
As you may have seen recently reported in the media, there have been changes in the industry to the costs of delivering broadband and home phone services for all providers in New Zealand. These cost changes affect the conditions that all providers operate under and unfortunately our prices will need to change to reflect these new conditions.
From 1 February 2015, most monthly fees for our broadband and home phone plans will increase by $4 per month.
People will know that over the past couple of year the price of wholesale access to the Chorus copper network and wholesale broadband services has been under review by the Commerce Commission. As of the 1st December 2014 the wholesale cost of these services was cut, but is still under review by the Commerce Commission who have recommend that the cut now not be as a great as it first recommended. Regardless of the final outcome, pricing will still be cheaper than it was prior to December 1st 2014. In the race to the bottom many ISPs claim they put pricing in the marketplace that factored in greater discounts and that the change will mean prices have to go back up. Spark have already announced some price increases across some of it’s products, but like Vodafone some of these changes are of a very dubious nature including combinations of services that have decreased, not increased in price.
The price of UFB services, and services delivered over their own cable network in Wellington, Christchurch and Kapiti are not affected by the Chorus copper price changes, yet Vodafone are increasing these prices. Adding on $4 per month to these plans and increasing data overuse charges is a pure profit making decision, and to even subtly infer that this increased cost is a related to “industry changes” is quite frankly the biggest (excuse my English) load of bullshit I’ve ever read in a press release. If you’re a Vodafone shareholder it’s probably great news. For Vodafone customers it’s anything but.
If you’re a Vodafone customer wanting to see what your pricing will increase to, you can view it here.
Other related posts:
Spark Paging network shutdown – the event nobody cares about? Not quite.
UFB voice, power cuts, copper invincibility and mainstream media FUD.
New Zealand’s growing BUBA problem (AKA I feel sorry for you if you’re on a Conklin)
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