Trans-Tasman bubble (Quarantine-Free Travel)

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#2733395 24-Jun-2021 07:59

GV27:

tdgeek:

The bubble needs to be for vaccinated people only, and while that also carries risk, its a pretty low risk. Pauses would still need to happen, but spreading an outbreak would be a far lower risk than now

I'd feel better about this had we not punted young people down the list of people to get vaccinated. After the whole 'Everyone get on board, team of five million etc', it's not a particularly kind thing to then say "Oh and by the way, our stuff-up on the rollout time-frames (promising them or the actual delivery, either way) means other people get to travel and you just have to wait around like a schnook".

There are supply constraints. We are 7.5% ahead of the rollout. We could use them up then put a hold on them, thats an option I guess. If vaccinating travellers is an issue we can leave the bubble to eligible vaccinated travellers. Or we could ask Pfixer for 4 million doses by next week :-)

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#2733421 24-Jun-2021 08:26

quickymart:

Jesus, this tourist went almost everywhere didn't he. No wonder Wellington's in level 2 now.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-post/wellington/300340318/covid19-nz-57-hours-in-wellington--how-a-sydney-tourists-capital-weekend-went-awry

Can we stop pretending this bubble was nothing but some people trying to make money from tourists and some very heavy lobbying?

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tdgeek

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#2733441 24-Jun-2021 08:34

And what is the real economic benefit? They come here and spend a few thousand, I go there and spend a few thousand instead of in the NZ economy? In the meantime we are now having Wellington's economy affected. Leave it till all tourists and all kKwis are vaccinated

mattwnz

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#2733532 24-Jun-2021 09:40

Well they mucked up by not closing the bubble earlier, when it was obvious they had CT. Sydney isn’t even locking down so they aren’t even following the elimination strategy that NZ is following, making them incompatible with the NZ bubble. There isn’t actually much criticism for what has happened in the media.

Just hope NZ has dodged a bullet on this and we don’t get local cases. Potentially this burst bubble could cost billions and billions if a full lockdown is needed to break the transmission cycle

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#2733537 24-Jun-2021 09:52

mattwnz: Well they mucked up by not closing the bubble earlier, when it was obvious they had CT. Sydney isn’t even locking down so they aren’t even following the elimination strategy that NZ is following, making them incompatible with the NZ bubble. There isn’t actually much criticism for what has happened in the media.

Just hope NZ has dodged a bullet on this and we don’t get local cases. Potentially this burst bubble could cost billions and billions if a full lockdown is needed to break the transmission cycle

Perhaps get the opinion of a bubble supporter, you will get a different answer. Close it earlier and it amounts to nothing, then what? Its easy to say afterwards. The bottom line is that the bubble doesn't work for NZ end of story. We saw that days after 19 April. Or, given the demand for the bubble many many months ago, its a risk worth taking (for some who benefit)

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#2733556 24-Jun-2021 10:15

What failed was the risk analysis they did of the Sydney spread. The bubble could have worked but they had to know when to shut it down when there was any risk to NZ. It needed them to be ultra Conservative. It failed.

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tdgeek

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#2733557 24-Jun-2021 10:17

Going back in this thread, on 10 June there was the first awareness of cases in Queensland and NSW and locations of interest, and on the 17th. But its only now we say we were too slow to pause.

My point is hindsight. Why wasn't anyone here saying pause the bubble then? Dont get me wrong I dont support the bubble given where it started to go days after 19 April, but its too easy to have an opinion on the bubble pause well after that fact

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#2733559 24-Jun-2021 10:20

mattwnz: What failed was the risk analysis they did of the Sydney spread. The bubble could have worked but they had to know when to shut it down when there was any risk to NZ. It needed them to be ultra Conservative. It failed.

How much risk? If I ask you, you will give me an answer. If I asked Michael Baker, so will he. if I ask a tourist business, so will they. Who is correct? Its like asking a Holden fan what they think of a Ford. In any case, no one can settle on their opinion afterwards, and I dont recall seeing any opinion earlier. Now its hit the fan, hindsight opinions aren't of much value. Lets see what we do next time and there will be many next times

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#2733565 24-Jun-2021 10:25

freitasm:

Can we stop pretending this bubble was nothing but some people trying to make money from tourists and some very heavy lobbying?

Until the population on both sides of a "bubble" are vaccinated any travel bubble is playing Russian roulette. The current case wandered around three very busy places, Te Papa, Victoria Uni and the Domestic and International terminals in Poneke. The later could mean the loaded round could be

anywhere in Aotearoa.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

alasta

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#2733577 24-Jun-2021 10:43

Personally I would have preferred it if the trans tasman bubble had been limited to certain compassionate scenarios - e.g. visiting a dying relative, attending a funeral, visiting a newborn grandchild, etc.

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#2733697 24-Jun-2021 12:43

At least through some testing into the mix. Either on Arrival testing (as condition of isolation free travel), or both pre-departure and on arrival testing.

Would allow us a decent chance of quickly catching any cases coming in, and would have a relatively low cost. (I think PCR tests for travel run about $150 each.)

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#2733874 24-Jun-2021 16:10

So the frequent pauses to trans-tasman travel, and today 13 Wellingtonians pulled off a plane bound for the Cooks, I reckon Christopher Walken had better odds in the Deerhunter than Kiwis booking overseas holidays at this time.

You book your flights, accommodation, arrange annual leave, put the cat in the cattery, farm out the kids, build up anticipation, ... only to have to unwind all of this at no notice. Why bother?

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#2733944 24-Jun-2021 17:02

dafman:

So the frequent pauses to trans-tasman travel, and today 13 Wellingtonians pulled off a plane bound for the Cooks, I reckon Christopher Walken had better odds in the Deerhunter than Kiwis booking overseas holidays at this time.

You book your flights, accommodation, arrange annual leave, put the cat in the cattery, farm out the kids, build up anticipation, ... only to have to unwind all of this at no notice. Why bother?

We were warned when the bubbles were formed that this sort of thing could happen, and unless they’ve been living under a rock, people should have planned accordingly. The bubble has allowed people who were willing to accept the risk of disruption to get on with life. Unfortunately it also lets people who get sick on their holiday, box on with their plans totally disregarding the thousands it may affect.

To answer your final question, if it’s too much trouble for you, don’t bother. There is no compulsion to go on an overseas holiday. But for Wellingtonians they shouldn’t be going elsewhere in NZ either.

If you wait the estimated 5 to 10 years for the coronavirus to flush away, I’m sure you’ll be fine.

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mattwnz

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#2733948 24-Jun-2021 17:12

tdgeek:

Going back in this thread, on 10 June there was the first awareness of cases in Queensland and NSW and locations of interest, and on the 17th. But its only now we say we were too slow to pause.

My point is hindsight. Why wasn't anyone here saying pause the bubble then? Dont get me wrong I dont support the bubble given where it started to go days after 19 April, but its too easy to have an opinion on the bubble pause well after that fact

I said back on the 19th June, the following in the main covid thread, so it wasn't hindsight. I told a few people at the weekend that I woudn't be surprised if a case came into NZ and parts of NZ went up a level. That is just how I saw things playing out due to the holes I could see, and I can still see holes (eg Victoria has a case today from NSW but NZ has apparently just reopened the Victoria border again). It was obvious to me NSW had a major problem back then and NZ should have closed of the border before the 19th. In fact today their premier is now saying that NSW is in it's most 'scariest period' since the pandemic started, yet they still have not locked down! Delaying locking down down just means they could be in lockdown for longer. The problem is that they are not following the elimination strategy that NZ is following, and Australia as a whole have never had an elimination strategy. IMO we are playing Russian Roulette with the NZ economy. Millions already lost due to this, plus the inconvenience, because IMO it could have been all avoided if the border had been closed earlier.

https://www.geekzone.co.nz/forums.asp?forumid=161&topicid=265423&page_no=1361

19-Jun-2021 19:56

I just can't understand why they are delaying closing the border to NSW. It looks clear there is a new outbreak and we can't trust everyone to do the right thing. At least be cautious, NZs luck is surely going to end at some point.

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#2733952 24-Jun-2021 17:31

Also looks like Victoria has now got a case from them. This looks to be turning into a huge mess. I think it is partly a problem with this new variant plus it is winter, so colder temperatures. I think the bubble needs reviewing urgently. Didn't NZ reopen the Victoria border yesterday?

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-06-24/covid-live-updates-nsw-borders-bondi-cluster-sydney-restrictions/100239484

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