New Zealanders on MH370

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#1002573 11-Mar-2014 08:59

Looks like there's no requirement for (ie floating/self deploying/"indestructible") EPIRB, but both "black boxes" have underwater locator beacons. Range of those beacons (sonar) is given as 1 mile, battery life "up to" 30 days. A 1 mile range when they've got a lot of ocean to search in limited time and still no real clues about where it might be is a big problem.
It's very weird - as presuming that there was a catastrophic event at 35,000 feet then they should have found something by now. If there wasn't a catastrophic event at the point they lost contact, then it's even weirder IMO, that ie a hijacking could have taken place, disabling all communication from the aircraft, dropping out of radar and crashing somewhere else. From the POV of a "terrorist" doing that if the purpose was to crash the plane - then why bother?

Human trafficking - red herring. The fake passports may be a red herring. No doubt despite lack of reports, there will have been plenty of loonies fronting up already claiming responsibility for a bombing - and only one or less can be verifiable. There will be gag orders in place, and with many possibilities open - a lot of checking to do. 239 POB was nowhere near capacity - so presumably it could have been carrying some cargo.

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#1002577 11-Mar-2014 09:07

According to this morning's National Radio news, tickets for two of the passengers using stolen passports were bought by a third party, an Iranian gentleman who paid in cash.

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#1002622 11-Mar-2014 10:26

Sideface: According to this morning's National Radio news, tickets for two of the passengers using stolen passports were bought by a third party, an Iranian gentleman who paid in cash.

Which if true and relevant, implies that an international terrorist group could presume that Thai/Malaysian border control and Malaysian airport security is run like the Keystone Cops.
I once paid cash for international airline tickets - booked only a couple of days before departure. It's not the way to keep a low profile - it took us hours to get through airport security, separated and given rapid-fire intense questioning - mainly about how we'd paid - and more-or-less along the lines of after finding our CCs when searching our wallets, then trying to get us to admit that someone else had paid for the tickets, baggage searched twice - everything dumped out, spread on benches, pulled apart and subject to the fine-toothed comb. The flight had been delayed - so we did eventually get through, cold-sweat still dripping.

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#1002641 11-Mar-2014 10:52

Fred99:
Sideface: According to this morning's National Radio news, tickets for two of the passengers using stolen passports were bought by a third party, an Iranian gentleman who paid in cash.

Which if true and relevant, implies that an international terrorist group could presume that Thai/Malaysian border control and Malaysian airport security is run like the Keystone Cops.
I once paid cash for international airline tickets - booked only a couple of days before departure. It's not the way to keep a low profile - it took us hours to get through airport security, separated and given rapid-fire intense questioning - mainly about how we'd paid - and more-or-less along the lines of after finding our CCs when searching our wallets, then trying to get us to admit that someone else had paid for the tickets, baggage searched twice - everything dumped out, spread on benches, pulled apart and subject to the fine-toothed comb. The flight had been delayed - so we did eventually get through, cold-sweat still dripping.

Where on earth where you boarding? Does not sound like New Zealand!

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#1002655 11-Mar-2014 10:59

One would expect a terrorist event to be claimed by the organisation responsible - otherwise what is the point - and as yet AFAIK that has not happened.

At least, not publicly and I cannot see why a terrorist organisation would only confess in secret to the intelligence community!

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#1002670 11-Mar-2014 11:09

DravidDavid:
Fred99:
Sideface: According to this morning's National Radio news, tickets for two of the passengers using stolen passports were bought by a third party, an Iranian gentleman who paid in cash.

Which if true and relevant, implies that an international terrorist group could presume that Thai/Malaysian border control and Malaysian airport security is run like the Keystone Cops.
I once paid cash for international airline tickets - booked only a couple of days before departure. It's not the way to keep a low profile - it took us hours to get through airport security, separated and given rapid-fire intense questioning - mainly about how we'd paid - and more-or-less along the lines of after finding our CCs when searching our wallets, then trying to get us to admit that someone else had paid for the tickets, baggage searched twice - everything dumped out, spread on benches, pulled apart and subject to the fine-toothed comb. The flight had been delayed - so we did eventually get through, cold-sweat still dripping.

Where on earth where you boarding? Does not sound like New Zealand!

That was Gatwick. NZ passports, married couple. Paid cash for tickets to get rid of GBP banknotes. When they split you up and start going through all the receipts they find in your wallet, asking what it was you bought, where you bought it etc, it gives you a very uncomfortable feeling.

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#1002671 11-Mar-2014 11:10

ADS-B data alone is very useful for first response, however it's coverage is all ground based which means blackspots, coverage floors and ceilings and basically no ocean coverage unless close to land.

Apparently there is an ADS-B system being built into the next-gen Iridium satellite platform which will allow for 100% global coverage from adove, with no blackspots or floors/ceilings. That way, as long as there is sky above the plane (always), there should be at least location/height/heading/squawk

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#1002694 11-Mar-2014 11:36

ajobbins: however it's coverage is all ground based which means blackspots, coverage floors and ceilings and basically no ocean coverage unless close to land.

Not all :) there are satellite uplinks for it as well. Just not always realtime but bundled post-data. Similar to Jetstar on ACARS here. I monitor them on VHF now and then, on their travel across the tasman both HF and ACARS data packets are sent out at intervals with last GPS positional data. Often 5/6 plots in a go. I was able to track locations by that method before I got my ADSB receiver setup.

And in this particular spot in the water, there are receivers on both sides with fairly good overlap. There was another aircraft some number of miles ahead of it on the same track (the one referred to as hearing mumbling/static on radio at some point) But yes, the normal limitations to the non commerical uploader systems from punters like myself certainly took some convincing from the FR24/Flightaware team (both tend to have users like me sharing the data to both) to the authorities to take it into consideration.

http://www.arinc.com/sectors/aviation/aircraft_operations/commercial_aviation/voice_data_comm/air_ground_data/hfdl_faqs.html

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#1002703 11-Mar-2014 11:48

Fred99: The fake passports may be a red herring..

Indeed - unless there is comparative data on how many passports on any given flight from the region are fake it is not useful information.

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#1002726 11-Mar-2014 12:11

Dailymail asks same question as me...

"It had GPS, an indestructible black box and a beacon designed to float to the surface: So how on earth can a Boeing 777 just vanish over the sea?"

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#1002733 11-Mar-2014 12:22

maybe it is not in the sea but in the jungle in vietnam or thailand?

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#1002734 11-Mar-2014 12:22

Geektastic: One would expect a terrorist event to be claimed by the organisation responsible - otherwise what is the point - and as yet AFAIK that has not happened...

It has happened, on several occasions* (according to an American "security expert" interviewed on radio last night).
Terrorists sometimes do not claim responsibility - even years later.
So the absence of a claim is non-contributory.
There is still no proof that this was an act or terrorism.

* Remember Pan Am Flight 103 (the Lockerbie bombing 1988)?

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#1002736 11-Mar-2014 12:24

for acts of terrorism there is usually motive. Malaysia is a usual critic of the West. and theories of something volatile being smuggled - but Kuala Lumpur to Beijing? hardly a useful route.

very sad and mysterious at the same time

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#1002845 11-Mar-2014 15:22

I found this article regarding the scanning of satelite images taken by US spy satellites to determine whether or not a mid-air explosion had occurred, as well as using infrasonic waves to detect explosions that may have occurred. Neither has turned anything up yet, which makes me really wonder. Keep in mind, I have no idea what kind of information already attained is being suppressed.

Some suggest a mid-air explosion and disintegration, which makes the most sense so far, since they can't find the plane...I have no idea how detailed a satellite image would be, but I'm guessing the level of detail would be similar to or better than what you might find on Google Maps. It might sound stupid to someone who has actually seen the type of image they were taking, but that's how I understand it. If the US were given the last known location and their coverage of the area was substantial, I find it hard to believe they found nothing, if they even looked at all.

The next best theory I've heard really is a hijacking. But if they didn't dive the plane in to the water, where could it have landed? I'm guessing even if the plane was submerged, all types of debris would be found floating on the surface, but nothing has shown up yet.

While I find mechanical failure unlikely at this stage, as soon as debris is found, it's back on the top of my list. However, I find it hard to imagine that something like double engine failure would stop all communication, since backup generators are designed to drop from the belly of a 777 in that particular situation in order to provide electrical and hydrolic power.

Pilot error/fatigue is still possible I guess. I can't see how that would impact on how the plane totally disappeared from radar though.

Collision with an explosive missile is possible, but if this is the case, it will be hard to prove. Whoever accidentally shot that plane down will be keeping it very quiet. It does not line up with what I've mentioned earlier about infrasonic waves monitoring for explosions. (of which none were found so far)

I hope some sort of atmospheric anomaly has occurred and the plane is currently flying through space time to appear on radar in the same spot it left 3 weeks from now, with everybody safe and sound on board. I really REALLY hope that is it. :(

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#1002865 11-Mar-2014 16:03

Is it possible to turn off all the planes tracking gear? I know it is in the movies, but that isn't real life surely.

I guess there must be some poor people out there (with loved ones on that flight) hoping against hope that it is some elaborate hijacking and the terrorists have landed the plane at some unknown airfield somewhere. Far-fetched I know (imagine the movie though).

It is a horrible thing, made even more horrible by the fact that nothing has shown up yet. I hope they get some start on the answers soon.

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