Our new coalition government.

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#2335627 11-Oct-2019 15:24

tdgeek:

Assuming both parties fail to reach 50% next year, I would like them both to decline NZF Its not worth it. If NZF wants to not play the game, that will end them. Fair play they got some stuff for becoming a coalition partner, but they have squeezed out far more than their seat share warranted.

Assuming NZF gets over the 5%, not a certainty and gets say one electorate seat they would still hold a balance of power or responsibility as Winston would have it. Now if Winston steps down in 2020 I feel that NZ will not get an electorate seat and will fail to get over 5% in which case problem solved.

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#2335639 11-Oct-2019 15:47

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

Assuming both parties fail to reach 50% next year, I would like them both to decline NZF Its not worth it. If NZF wants to not play the game, that will end them. Fair play they got some stuff for becoming a coalition partner, but they have squeezed out far more than their seat share warranted.

Assuming NZF gets over the 5%, not a certainty and gets say one electorate seat they would still hold a balance of power or responsibility as Winston would have it. Now if Winston steps down in 2020 I feel that NZ will not get an electorate seat and will fail to get over 5% in which case problem solved.

Agree, one he steps down its over. But can they both decline him and run a minority Govt? I assume he will be an annoyance so back to the polls and the key will be vote for Labour, Green or National, so whoever can get on with it

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#2335673 11-Oct-2019 16:17

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

Assuming both parties fail to reach 50% next year, I would like them both to decline NZF Its not worth it. If NZF wants to not play the game, that will end them. Fair play they got some stuff for becoming a coalition partner, but they have squeezed out far more than their seat share warranted.

Assuming NZF gets over the 5%, not a certainty and gets say one electorate seat they would still hold a balance of power or responsibility as Winston would have it. Now if Winston steps down in 2020 I feel that NZ will not get an electorate seat and will fail to get over 5% in which case problem solved.

Agree, one he steps down its over. But can they both decline him and run a minority Govt? I assume he will be an annoyance so back to the polls and the key will be vote for Labour, Green or National, so whoever can get on with it

Yes they can govern as a minority but they usually need an agreement to support on confidence and supply. This would be a bad scenario as it leads to instability. Also to muddy the waters TOP is trying to come back but without Gareth Morgan so who knows.

tdgeek

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#2335681 11-Oct-2019 16:23

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

Assuming both parties fail to reach 50% next year, I would like them both to decline NZF Its not worth it. If NZF wants to not play the game, that will end them. Fair play they got some stuff for becoming a coalition partner, but they have squeezed out far more than their seat share warranted.

Assuming NZF gets over the 5%, not a certainty and gets say one electorate seat they would still hold a balance of power or responsibility as Winston would have it. Now if Winston steps down in 2020 I feel that NZ will not get an electorate seat and will fail to get over 5% in which case problem solved.

Agree, one he steps down its over. But can they both decline him and run a minority Govt? I assume he will be an annoyance so back to the polls and the key will be vote for Labour, Green or National, so whoever can get on with it

Yes they can govern as a minority but they usually need an agreement to support on confidence and supply. This would be a bad scenario as it leads to instability. Also to muddy the waters TOP is trying to come back but without Gareth Morgan so who knows.

Yes, I guess the plan is to campaign for a united party, subtly saying them or us, no one else. if the campaign banter/media was about coalition being disruptive that may sway the voters to commit to the main parties.

elpenguino

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#2336009 12-Oct-2019 16:02

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

MikeB4:

tdgeek:

Assuming both parties fail to reach 50% next year, I would like them both to decline NZF Its not worth it. If NZF wants to not play the game, that will end them. Fair play they got some stuff for becoming a coalition partner, but they have squeezed out far more than their seat share warranted.

Assuming NZF gets over the 5%, not a certainty and gets say one electorate seat they would still hold a balance of power or responsibility as Winston would have it. Now if Winston steps down in 2020 I feel that NZ will not get an electorate seat and will fail to get over 5% in which case problem solved.

Agree, one he steps down its over. But can they both decline him and run a minority Govt? I assume he will be an annoyance so back to the polls and the key will be vote for Labour, Green or National, so whoever can get on with it

Yes they can govern as a minority but they usually need an agreement to support on confidence and supply. This would be a bad scenario as it leads to instability. Also to muddy the waters TOP is trying to come back but without Gareth Morgan so who knows.

What do you mean instability? Every NZ government since PR has run its' full term with few leadership changes while in government. Leadership change has been National government thing AFAICR.

Compared to our peers NZ looks like a paragon of virtue when it comes to stability.

It's why things change so slowly, governments of both colours are reluctant to scare the horses.

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#2336046 12-Oct-2019 19:20

GV27:

How does Goff being re elected affect your transport issues? Genuine question, I don't live in AKL although raised there

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#2336066 12-Oct-2019 20:06

elpenguino:

What do you mean instability? Every NZ government since PR has run its' full term with few leadership changes while in government. Leadership change has been National government thing AFAICR.

Compared to our peers NZ looks like a paragon of virtue when it comes to stability.

It's why things change so slowly, governments of both colours are reluctant to scare the horses.

Has every NZ Govt been a minority Govt? Not that Im aware of. A minority Govt will be unstable.

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GV27

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#2336509 14-Oct-2019 08:35

tdgeek:

GV27:

How does Goff being re elected affect your transport issues? Genuine question, I don't live in AKL although raised there

It doesn't, sadly. The Rapid Transit projects were handed to NZTA from AT after the last election. It really changes very little. It's a better outcome than Tamihere, no doubt, but it still won't make anything happen any quicker.

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#2336528 14-Oct-2019 09:10

GV27:

tdgeek:

GV27:

How does Goff being re elected affect your transport issues? Genuine question, I don't live in AKL although raised there

It doesn't, sadly. The Rapid Transit projects were handed to NZTA from AT after the last election. It really changes very little. It's a better outcome than Tamihere, no doubt, but it still won't make anything happen any quicker.

I wish each section of the voting papers had a “none of the above” option. While that wouldn’t affect who wins, it would indicate to the victor how much of a mandate they actually have. The closest I could get to this was voting for DHB, community board, etc, but leaving the Mayor and Councillors sections blank.

Sorry, bit off topic. To bring it back.

Polls, Schmoles, how many of those have been accurate recently?

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

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#2336561 14-Oct-2019 09:44

Blank and invalid votes are reported in the totals so that kind if does what you want.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

MikeB4

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#2336627 14-Oct-2019 10:46

@Dingbatt I absolutely agree. A none of the above option is valid and should be an option. Voting for a candidate because they are the least objectionable or least incompetent is way worse than a no vote and a none of the above is way better than a no vote and sends a message to all candidates and parties.

sir1963

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#2336629 14-Oct-2019 10:47

MikeB4:

@Dingbatt I absolutely agree. A none of the above option is valid and should be an option. Voting for a candidate because they are the least objectionable or least incompetent is way worse than a no vote and a none of the above is way better than a no vote and sends a message to all candidates and parties.

I did not bother to vote for anyone because there were no worthwhile candidates.

GV27

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#2336962 14-Oct-2019 18:48

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/116571755/new-opinion-poll-has-national-in-a-winning-position-to-form-government-with-act

The National Party has hit a potentially election-winning lead in the latest 1 NEWS Colmar Brunton Poll.

The National Party rose two percentage points to 47 per cent, while Labour fell 3 points to 40 per cent, after a protracted sexual assault scandal and continuing failures over its KiwiBuild policy.

Labour's coalition partner NZ First polled at 4 per cent, an increase of 1 point but still below the 5 per cent threshold required to return to Parliament without an electorate MP.

Last time we had two polls going in two different directions. Now they are heading in one direction. Still to play out: LGWM letters, NZ First's conference with disgruntled pensioners, etc.

tdgeek

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#2337029 14-Oct-2019 20:41

Isn't this similar to the election? It was 57-54 then. 61-60 in the poll. (Excluding NZF in the pol)l. Given the negatives about the Coalition, thats not a great result for the Opposition? As if you account for NZF supporting the Coalition just for the sake of argument, it just needs them to meet the threshold. I would have thought it would drift further. The reason is that she does have good points, and Nats leadership is non existent. When JC takes over thats the litmus test. She would go after NZF voters

GV27

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#2337087 15-Oct-2019 07:04

tdgeek:

and Nats leadership is non existent.

...and yet they continue to out-poll Labour and are now within spitting distance when it comes to forming a government. That's somewhat remarkable IMO, especially during the year of delivery.

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