Our new coalition government.

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#2337091 15-Oct-2019 07:25

GV27:

tdgeek:

and Nats leadership is non existent.

...and yet they continue to out-poll Labour and are now within spitting distance when it comes to forming a government. That's somewhat remarkable IMO, especially during the year of delivery.

They continue to outpoll? Seems even to me, if you allow for NZF to give it an apples vs apples. The outpoll is excluding NZF. So, Labour has failed, so its still even, that tells me Labour has failed, Nats have failed, so its still even. Im fine if National goes back to power, they can fix everything easily and in quick time :-). The issue is, they havent shown an alternative. They continue to whine without giving their alternative. This election they have to give a detailed policy, so it will be interesting to see both parties with policies for a change, not what National is used to . Thats why I see this as a fail for both sides and an even poll.

GV27

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#2337095 15-Oct-2019 07:57

tdgeek:

They continue to outpoll? Seems even to me, if you allow for NZF to give it an apples vs apples. The outpoll is excluding NZF. So, Labour has failed, so its still even, that tells me Labour has failed, Nats have failed, so its still even. Im fine if National goes back to power, they can fix everything easily and in quick time :-). The issue is, they havent shown an alternative. They continue to whine without giving their alternative. This election they have to give a detailed policy, so it will be interesting to see both parties with policies for a change, not what National is used to . Thats why I see this as a fail for both sides and an even poll.

Oh for sure, no polling result will change the fact they are giant babies. Bish has changed his tone on the transport policies recently so hopefully they have something better in the works than "MOAR ROADS".

As for NZ First, I'd say they're excluded because they're cooked. The members are pretty unhappy, they haven't achieved anything except the PGF and even then it's basically functioning as a pork-barrel machine for Northland to try and buy a seat up there.

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#2337141 15-Oct-2019 08:07

GV27:

tdgeek:

They continue to outpoll? Seems even to me, if you allow for NZF to give it an apples vs apples. The outpoll is excluding NZF. So, Labour has failed, so its still even, that tells me Labour has failed, Nats have failed, so its still even. Im fine if National goes back to power, they can fix everything easily and in quick time :-). The issue is, they havent shown an alternative. They continue to whine without giving their alternative. This election they have to give a detailed policy, so it will be interesting to see both parties with policies for a change, not what National is used to . Thats why I see this as a fail for both sides and an even poll.

Oh for sure, no polling result will change the fact they are giant babies. Bish has changed his tone on the transport policies recently so hopefully they have something better in the works than "MOAR ROADS".

As for NZ First, I'd say they're excluded because they're cooked. The members are pretty unhappy, they haven't achieved anything except the PGF and even then it's basically functioning as a pork-barrel machine for Northland to try and buy a seat up there.

Yes, NZF will be interesting. Peters will need to convince them to hang on. As we have already agreed, once Peters retires, NZF will cease to exist.

Bish? Bridges? Moar Roads is the clue? lol

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#2337145 15-Oct-2019 08:13

What grinds my wheels is Nats saying we will give you more roads. When asked for details, sure here is the detail, we will give you more roads as thats what Kiwis need right now. Labour was criticised rightly as low on detail. Nats have to finally be specific, time for a change, steady and reliable doesn't work any more, as to many Kiwis have specific issues that bother then. Clarke was time for a change, Labour has been in disarray since, so an easy run. Now Labour has fallen behind what they are to deliver yet the poll is still even. Collins has to take over early next year

Fred99

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#2337193 15-Oct-2019 09:26

tdgeek:

What grinds my wheels is Nats saying we will give you more roads. When asked for details, sure here is the detail, we will give you more roads as thats what Kiwis need right now. Labour was criticised rightly as low on detail.

That's standard/normal, it's just how it works in opposition. You don't nail down the details because it'll probably come back and bite you, either because you never costed it or because between now and then circumstances and priorities changed.

Labour's Kiwibuild a classic example, instead of an aspirational goal use numbers, then those numbers get used as a noose around your neck. National don't have to do anything about housing unaffordability now - Labour let them off the hook.

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#2337201 15-Oct-2019 09:39

Fred99:

tdgeek:

What grinds my wheels is Nats saying we will give you more roads. When asked for details, sure here is the detail, we will give you more roads as thats what Kiwis need right now. Labour was criticised rightly as low on detail.

That's standard/normal, it's just how it works in opposition. You don't nail down the details because it'll probably come back and bite you, either because you never costed it or because between now and then circumstances and priorities changed.

Labour's Kiwibuild a classic example, instead of an aspirational goal use numbers, then those numbers get used as a noose around your neck. National don't have to do anything about housing unaffordability now - Labour let them off the hook.

So you feel that Nats policies this election will be vague one liners such as we will grow the economy and fix transport?

There is no affordability crisis anyhow, not according to the 2nd or 3rd leaders debate. It wont get much airtime in the upcoming election as its too hard to fix so no one will go there. There were a large number of problems raised last election. Health, education, transport. Not a lot of progress has been made. Id be surprised if both parties campaigned on a "we will fix these" and no detail. This evolved over 9 years, the issues still exist after another 3. Id expect people to want commitment than one liners now

Fred99

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#2337204 15-Oct-2019 09:40

tdgeek:

Yes, NZF will be interesting. Peters will need to convince them to hang on. As we have already agreed, once Peters retires, NZF will cease to exist.

The interesting part will be where the >7% of votes NZF used to win find a new home, and how policy of the other parties is changed to attract them without alienating any of their base. Because 7% of the party vote is a winning margin - so they can't ignore it.

There's always the possibility that they could find another WP. Nah that's science fiction - they'd need to clone him then spend 1/2 century training Dolly the Polly.

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Fred99

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#2337210 15-Oct-2019 09:49

tdgeek:

So you feel that Nats policies this election will be vague one liners such as we will grow the economy and fix transport?

Yes.

It seems to be working according to polls, so why change tack?

tdgeek

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#2337212 15-Oct-2019 09:49

Fred99:

tdgeek:

Yes, NZF will be interesting. Peters will need to convince them to hang on. As we have already agreed, once Peters retires, NZF will cease to exist.

The interesting part will be where the >7% of votes NZF used to win find a new home, and how policy of the other parties is changed to attract them without alienating any of their base. Because 7% of the party vote is a winning margin - so they can't ignore it.

There's always the possibility that they could find another WP. Nah that's science fiction - they'd need to clone him then spend 1/2 century training Dolly the Polly.

Disenchanted NZF voters will have to go to National. Not one will go to Labour, as they would just stay with NZF and go to Labour the back door way. If they reached the 5% threshold he would still likely be Kingmaker, but it would be very easy for National to chip away at NZF voters to break the threshold. Id assume that demographic would play it safe with National then NZF, and it wont take much swing to miss the 5%. That being the case its Nationals to lose

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#2337215 15-Oct-2019 09:57

Fred99:

tdgeek:

So you feel that Nats policies this election will be vague one liners such as we will grow the economy and fix transport?

Yes.

It seems to be working according to polls, so why change tack?

You could argue that two ways. National has done nothing except have Bridges whine, so the polls being similar to the election mean that they havent made any ground. Labour has won and failed, yet they are still about even in the polls (allowing for NZF) Due to Labours performance, Nats should, be well ahead, but if you assume NZF reached the threshold and went again with Labour to get apples vs apples) they arent. We rule put Labour, but we cant rule in National. IMO Nats need polices in health education and transport that are nailed down. We will give you this...

Mahon

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#2337254 15-Oct-2019 11:24

Fred99:

tdgeek:

So you feel that Nats policies this election will be vague one liners such as we will grow the economy and fix transport?

Yes.

It seems to be working according to polls, so why change tack?

A much better strategy than promising many things and delivering very little. National has already announced a few new policies so far including tax relief, cancer strategy, restarting roads of national significance. You dont announce major new policies until closer to election. You should know that!!

Shane Jones handling a banned automatic rifle is another good look. I didnt see the 1billion in his back pocket.

Jacinda can fix this slump by showing leadership and tightening up on her cowboy/girl Ministers. Immigration Minister needs to be removed for a start.

Sadly, she will be holding back for a massive spendup in election year which she doesnt think the voters will see through.

tdgeek

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#2337258 15-Oct-2019 11:32

Mahon:

Fred99:

tdgeek:

So you feel that Nats policies this election will be vague one liners such as we will grow the economy and fix transport?

Yes.

It seems to be working according to polls, so why change tack?

A much better strategy than promising many things and delivering very little. National has already announced a few new policies so far including tax relief, cancer strategy, restarting roads of national significance. You dont announce major new policies until closer to election. You should know that!!

Shane Jones handling a banned automatic rifle is another good look. I didnt see the 1billion in his back pocket.

Jacinda can fix this slump by showing leadership and tightening up on her cowboy/girl Ministers. Immigration Minister needs to be removed for a start.

Sadly, she will be holding back for a massive spendup in election year which she doesnt think the voters will see through.

Where did you make that up from? Voters will see through it thats why tax cut bribes failed

Im keen to see Nats policies, and the delivery details in due course

sir1963

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#2337259 15-Oct-2019 11:32

Mahon:

Fred99:

tdgeek:

So you feel that Nats policies this election will be vague one liners such as we will grow the economy and fix transport?

Yes.

It seems to be working according to polls, so why change tack?

A much better strategy than promising many things and delivering very little. National has already announced a few new policies so far including tax relief, cancer strategy, restarting roads of national significance. You dont announce major new policies until closer to election. You should know that!!

Shane Jones handling a banned automatic rifle is another good look. I didnt see the 1billion in his back pocket.

Jacinda can fix this slump by showing leadership and tightening up on her cowboy/girl Ministers. Immigration Minister needs to be removed for a start.

Sadly, she will be holding back for a massive spendup in election year which she doesnt think the voters will see through.

So what are the Nats going to throw away for the tax cuts ?

Health, education ?, go back to beneficiary bashing ?, or are they going to raise the costs of a whole pile of other things like road taxes, passport fees, school fees, etc etc etc, you know stealth increases.

The money MUST come from somewhere, unless of course they intend to raise debt.

There is raising the retirement age I guess.

tdgeek

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#2337262 15-Oct-2019 11:44

sir1963:

So what are the Nats going to throw away for the tax cuts ?

Health, education ?, go back to beneficiary bashing ?, or are they going to raise the costs of a whole pile of other things like road taxes, passport fees, school fees, etc etc etc, you know stealth increases.

The money MUST come from somewhere, unless of course they intend to raise debt.

There is raising the retirement age I guess.

Agree. However you cut it, Kiwis want certain things, they cost money. But we will be told by both parties that we can have it all, or most. Rationally it should be about that we cannot have everything what order shall we work through them all? But thats not good enough, I want my stuff now, you want yours stuff now and so on. If we had the best party the bets leader the best people, the math problem is still the same. We have 5 units of money but we want 8 units of results

Voters will thus vote for who gives them the most, the benefit to overall NZ isnt relevant

sir1963

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#2337353 15-Oct-2019 12:19

tdgeek:

sir1963:

So what are the Nats going to throw away for the tax cuts ?

Health, education ?, go back to beneficiary bashing ?, or are they going to raise the costs of a whole pile of other things like road taxes, passport fees, school fees, etc etc etc, you know stealth increases.

The money MUST come from somewhere, unless of course they intend to raise debt.

There is raising the retirement age I guess.

Agree. However you cut it, Kiwis want certain things, they cost money. But we will be told by both parties that we can have it all, or most. Rationally it should be about that we cannot have everything what order shall we work through them all? But thats not good enough, I want my stuff now, you want yours stuff now and so on. If we had the best party the bets leader the best people, the math problem is still the same. We have 5 units of money but we want 8 units of results

Voters will thus vote for who gives them the most, the benefit to overall NZ isnt relevant

Perhaps the Nats are going to spend that $10 Billion "hole" they said Labour had...and hasn't.

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