Nope to dope or toot toot?

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#2593959 30-Oct-2020 14:12

Too soon to tell if its been defeated with 400k+ special votes still to be counted.

I hope it stays defeated personally, but its pretty close

GV27

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#2593960 30-Oct-2020 14:12

Rikkitic:

Never mind there are still an awful lot of special votes to be counted.

Are the special votes mostly overseas-based Kiwis? It would be an extreme affront to common-sense if a clear on-the-day referendum result from local-based voters like this is overturned by New Zealanders who don't actually live in New Zealand - although obviously there will be other special votes in there that aren't overseas Kiwis.

I've long been highly dubious of the way we treat overseas voting and a huge post-facto swing in a referendum result could make that conversation something people can no longer brush off.

vexxxboy

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#2593962 30-Oct-2020 14:14

GV27:

Rikkitic:

Never mind there are still an awful lot of special votes to be counted.

Are the special votes mostly overseas-based Kiwis? It would be an extreme affront to common-sense if a clear on-the-day referendum result from local-based voters like this is overturned by New Zealanders who don't actually live in New Zealand - although obviously there will be other special votes in there that aren't overseas Kiwis.

I've long been highly dubious of the way we treat overseas voting and a huge post-facto swing in a referendum result could make that conversation something people can no longer brush off.

it needs 70% of the special votes to be yes for it to swing to yes

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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#2593965 30-Oct-2020 14:18

vexxxboy:

it needs 70% of the special votes to be yes for it to swing to yes

Beat me to it. Yes too much of a swing, to go from 53% no to 70% yes

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#2593966 30-Oct-2020 14:19

The overseas votes tend to be overwhemingly left leaning voters though, correct?

Rikkitic

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#2593968 30-Oct-2020 14:24

That is unlikely to change the result, but even if it did, it would not be the end of the world. A yes vote does not mean legalisation. It just means a formal legislative process that can be changed and voted down at any point along the way. I think the yes lobby managed to generate a lot of unnecessary panic about this, which no doubt helped the result.

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#2593971 30-Oct-2020 14:25

Rikkitic:

That is unlikely to change the result, but even if it did, it would not be the end of the world. A yes vote does not mean legalisation. It just means a formal legislative process that can be changed and voted down at any point along the way. I think the yes lobby managed to generate a lot of unnecessary panic about this, which no doubt helped the result.

Heh, both sides of the spectrum during this debate got a little unhinged.

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#2593974 30-Oct-2020 14:33

For the record, I'm not too bothered by this and was more or less expecting it. What I hope for, and think will happen as part of this process, is that the police stop being involved with consumption and abuse becomes a health matter. Maybe they could also be a little less obsessive about going after small growers. As far as I am concerned, they are free to stomp on gangs and organised crime as much as they like.

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#2593975 30-Oct-2020 14:34

networkn:

The overseas votes tend to be overwhemingly left leaning voters though, correct?

Yes, not sure if its overwhelmingly though, plus there are many non overseas special votes. 53% yes for 83% of NZ needs now to be 70% no for this 17% of specials, I dont feel the specials are that far offset from the normal votes

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#2593983 30-Oct-2020 14:50

tdgeek:

networkn:

The overseas votes tend to be overwhemingly left leaning voters though, correct?

Yes, not sure if its overwhelmingly though, plus there are many non overseas special votes. 53% yes for 83% of NZ needs now to be 70% no for this 17% of specials, I dont feel the specials are that far offset from the normal votes

Agree 100%, special votes are normally overseas voters. 70%+ swing would be massive.

Both results went they way I expected

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#2594034 30-Oct-2020 15:30

Crazy thing is now there's almost arguably no mandate for change. The Yes camp have basically fenced themselves in on something that shouldn't have been subject to a referendum in the first place. Pick fights you know you can win, I guess.

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#2594048 30-Oct-2020 16:00

GV27:
Rikkitic:

Never mind there are still an awful lot of special votes to be counted.

Are the special votes mostly overseas-based Kiwis? It would be an extreme affront to common-sense if a clear on-the-day referendum result from local-based voters like this is overturned by New Zealanders who don't actually live in New Zealand - although obviously there will be other special votes in there that aren't overseas Kiwis.

I've long been highly dubious of the way we treat overseas voting and a huge post-facto swing in a referendum result could make that conversation something people can no longer brush off.

You're worried about ~62000 votes changing the result (based on the last election)?

The vast majority of special votes are domestic votes.

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#2594050 30-Oct-2020 16:09

GV27:

Crazy thing is now there's almost arguably no mandate for change. The Yes camp have basically fenced themselves in on something that shouldn't have been subject to a referendum in the first place. Pick fights you know you can win, I guess.

It is a result but I would hardly call it no mandate for change. Although just over half voted no, nearly half voted yes. That is a significant mandate. It says there is a big chunk of the population who don't agree with the status quo. There will be change, and plenty of it, just not this particular thing at this particular time.

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GV27

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#2594063 30-Oct-2020 16:38

Handle9:

You're worried about ~62000 votes changing the result (based on the last election)?

The vast majority of special votes are domestic votes.

I wasn't aware of the exact figure hence the question at the beginning of the post you quoted. Surprised it is that small. I figured there'd be a significant chunk of the specials which were on the day enrollments and votes from other booths outside electorates etc.

itxtme

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#2594065 30-Oct-2020 16:47

It should never have been a referendum. Or if it was it should have been a holistic question like "Should cannabis remain an illegal drug for personal consumption?". The question in its form opened up people imaginations to what they though may happen by linking logical arguments, like increases in drug driving, or harder drugs use increasing. When we take an evidenced based approach to those concerns we see they are generally unfounded. Experts should have made those decisions, the general public are not in a position to weigh up the potential harm versus the harm that occurs now due to prohibition.

Talking to friends and family I am surprised by the result. I thought it would lose by more.

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