Housing - Issues, Effects, Observations and Solutions?

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#2609314 23-Nov-2020 18:30

MikeAqua:

Key didn't campaign on housing. Ardern did and it's gotten worse on her watch.

Key used housing to attack Labour in opposition, but not quite to the same extent that Labour a) promised Kiwibuild houses b) at extremely specific and unreasonably low price points, and used that as a platform to attack the government for not doing as much as they would.

Ironically enough, the "National is doing nothing for affordable houses!" meme ignored the wildly successful Axis balloting programme at Hobsonville Point, which for a while was delivering more houses under Labour than Kiwibuild was at basically the same price points (and still is)...

https://axisseries.co.nz/

...even though the Hobsonville Pt development itself was a process that begin under the Clark Govt. In reality, we needed many more Hobsonville Pts all across Auckland all coming on line at the same time - which we're now kind of getting (HLC is part of this process as well). But the Axis Series was both exactly what we need yet totally invisible when it came to debating the merits and set-up of Kiwibuild. We are poorer for that oversight IMO.

quickymart

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#2609456 23-Nov-2020 20:47

I think the housing thing at Hobsonville is great, but agree there should be plenty more around than just that one. Must be tonnes of free space on the city fringes (or not) that could be utilised.

I was in Albany at the weekend, and while walking from the busway station to the mall saw massive swathes of open land, just sitting there doing nothing. Mostly setup for development with roading and bus stops etc in place. But where were all the houses? Or apartments? That whole area should have been teeming with housing. Granted, there are a few apartment complexes there - but not many, when there could be so much more.

GV27

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#2609561 24-Nov-2020 07:12

quickymart:

I think the housing thing at Hobsonville is great, but agree there should be plenty more around than just that one. Must be tonnes of free space on the city fringes (or not) that could be utilised.

I was in Albany at the weekend, and while walking from the busway station to the mall saw massive swathes of open land, just sitting there doing nothing. Mostly setup for development with roading and bus stops etc in place. But where were all the houses? Or apartments? That whole area should have been teeming with housing. Granted, there are a few apartment complexes there - but not many, when there could be so much more.

I think that's what the early vision kind of was?

https://www.buildmagazine.org.nz/assets/PDF/B99-37-AlbanyMasterPlan.pdf?

As for the 'city fringes' - adding more and more houses with mega-commutes on the fringes where there is zero access to transport just stuffs up everything in between. We're seeing this in Westgate and Whenuapai where the motorway now starts building up at 6am on SH16 because the houses are going in before the bus way or light rail or whatever we're supposed to be getting, some day. The National Policy Statement is designed to make sure that inner-city areas with rapid transit already in place can't NIMBY their way out of taking on intensification and pushing it way out into the middle of nowhere.

Handle9

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#2609562 24-Nov-2020 07:16

The national policy statement is a very good first step to making housing more affordable in central areas. The next 12 months will be very interesting as both Wellington and Christchurch councils are flipping out over it and it is likely to be fairly unpopular with NIMBYs.

Coupled with RMA reform it should help but a problem built over a couple of generations will take at least that long to unwind.

GV27

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#2609564 24-Nov-2020 07:34

Handle9:

Coupled with RMA reform it should help but a problem built over a couple of generations will take at least that long to unwind.

Also requires Govt to come to the party when it comes to infrastructure for creating rapid transit corridors.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/123341625/auckland-council-apartment-development-still-without-consent-four-years-on

We have this bizarre situation where we are being told Dominion Road will get rapid transit but the Council was knocking a proposal from its own property development wing because it's too big and was too tall, even though the Light Rail proposal came from the Council's transport CCO. Utter madness.

This route would be a candidate for the new NPS statement application which would make this all go away if we actually get the rapid transit in the corridor like we should have by now.

GV27

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#2609896 24-Nov-2020 16:12

I'll be honest, I didn't expect this:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300166483/grant-robertson-writes-to-reserve-bank-saying-its-time-to-think-about-house-prices

A week ago this type of intervention was rebuffed as shades of Muldoonism by Ardern, so I wonder what's happened to change her mind.

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#2609915 24-Nov-2020 17:14

GV27:
I'll be honest, I didn't expect this:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics/300166483/grant-robertson-writes-to-reserve-bank-saying-its-time-to-think-about-house-prices

A week ago this type of intervention was rebuffed as shades of Muldoonism by Ardern, so I wonder what's happened to change her mind.

Same thing that always changes her mind - polling.

quickymart

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#2609947 24-Nov-2020 19:05

Well maybe not city fringes - but certainly the area I described in Albany is right next to the busway, so hardly no transport options there.

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/24-11-2020/grant-robertson-today-moved-to-reset-the-clock-on-housing-can-it-work/

Anyway, will what Grant Robertson wants to do change anything?
Personally, if prices just stabilised, I would be happy with that, never mind a reduction.

Handle9

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#2609975 24-Nov-2020 19:46

It's good to see some concrete commitments from the government

https://thespinoff.co.nz/politics/24-11-2020/ardern-pledges-to-care-9-more-by-2030/

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#2612062 27-Nov-2020 20:59

National were working on the supply side, but didn't have the numbers in the house.

They were developing the special housing areas.

They were late to the game, but heading in the right direction.

Yeah right! national had numbers.. Labour hamstrung by NZFirst last last term.. but Labour don't seem to have balls to do much this term.. even letter to RBNZ is weak.

All Govts are blinded in headlights, and too scared to rock the boat.

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#2612088 27-Nov-2020 22:49

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/123531299/housing-market-strength-not-sustainable--anz

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#2612645 29-Nov-2020 13:27

GV27:

Given we are starting to see some serious scrutiny of house prices and a lack of action by various parties over the year,

I think you mean over the decades

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/123527809/which-prime-ministers-oversaw-the-biggest-house-price-increases

My contribution is to levy existing home purchases. Same as the EV subsidy. Most buy existing, much less build, so you can levy on existing purchases, and provide a substantial tax rebate on new builds.

tdgeek

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#2612646 29-Nov-2020 13:33

GV27:

4) Migration: Covid19 did what governments weren't interested in doing. We're already hearing about opening up to high-value migrants and returning Kiwis. We were previously adding tens of thousands of people a year to Auckland - do we want to go back to this when Covid lifts?

5) The future of state building programmes like Kiwibuild and opportunities for things like large scale fabrication of terraced houses (up to five stories) - moving supply away from delivering $750K two bedroom two level houses to $800K 3/4 bedroom three to five level houses and what that would mean for state housing for bigger families, etc.

Migration with Covid has probably been a lot more than non Covid. No its not strictly immigration, but its the same effect

Kiwibuild was a state building program, it was a state assisted help the builder program aimed at the not really worth it, budget builds. The state isn't a builder, but maybe it should be. Start a building company. It will build at the lower end and local builds, it will sell at cost plus, thereby avoiding the cost plus or what the market will bear, which currently is clearly the latter. It will employ the same trained people that builders employ.

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#2612653 29-Nov-2020 13:50

quickymart:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/123531299/housing-market-strength-not-sustainable--anz

No solution there Im afraid.

"But this would not change certain fundamentals, like low interest rates and ongoing supply issues, so Alexander expected house prices to keep rising,"

Someone needs to build build build, or subsided builds over existing. Is there an option to artificially raise interest rates on mortgages? Add an artificial 2%? Maybe use that subsidise new builds? Or new builds get an artificially low interest rate, this being sourced from an artificially raised rate for existing?

I guess at any time in the past, new builds were low. Many bought existing, we need to shift that around. No post budding 100,000 houses nest week if people still prefer to buy existing

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#2612654 29-Nov-2020 13:51

GV27:

Eh, we might do better with one here than in General Discussion.

I agree. Apart from it being used for political jabs every other post, I think your point was to brain storm.

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