I hadn't heard about that, but I assure you that it wasn't me! 😛

MikeB4:

@Geektastic you didn't feel last nights 7.1? I admire your sleeping ability. You are far enough up Wairarapa to be OK. I wouldn't feel comfortable in Ngawi.

GNS have released forecast models:

 

Future Scenarios:

 

We recognize these events are dramatic and unsettling for many people. Our experiences In Aotearoa-New Zealand with earthquakes over the last 15 years have been challenging, and at times, tragic and traumatic. While we do not know for certain what will happen next, we do know that there will be more earthquakes. How large these will be or what time they will happen is uncertain, but we do have some statistical models that help us know what could happen next.

 

Based on our forecast models we have developed three scenarios for what earthquakes may happen over the next 30 days. Earthquakes that generate tsunami impacting the northern part of Aotearoa-New Zealand are possible in any of these scenarios. We expect there to be more felt earthquakes, particularly in the East Cape. The region considered for these scenarios extends from the central Kermadec region north of the March 5th M8.1 earthquake to offshore East Coast Aotearoa-New Zealand within the next 30 days, because this area of activity is closest to the land and people.

 

1. Scenario One – Very likely (up to 90 percent within the next 30 days) The most likely scenario is that further earthquakes of a smaller magnitude than occurred on 5 March will occur but will decrease in frequency over the next 30 days. This includes the potential for earthquakes in the M7.0-M7.9 range (more than 80% probability within the next 30 days). Larger earthquakes are more likely to occur in the central Kermadecs, near the northern part of the sequence. Similar sequences to these have occurred in this region in the last 50 years including a central Kermadecs M8.0 in 1976 and M7.7 in 1986.

 

2. Scenario Two – Very unlikely (15 percent or less within the next 30 days) The next most likely scenario is a similar sized earthquake of around M8.0. This scenario is similar to what occurred in the 2014 Iquique, Chile earthquake sequence. Should this occur, it is much more likely to be in the central Kermadecs, but it is still possible for it to happen near the East Cape. Earthquakes of this size can occur on either the subduction interface or farther away as an "outer rise" earthquake on the incoming Pacific plate, east of the subduction zone.

 

3. Scenario Three – Extremely unlikely (1 percent or less within the next 30 days) A much less likely scenario than the previous two scenarios is that the recent earthquakes will trigger a significantly larger earthquake (M8.5 or greater) within the next 30 days. For example, an earthquake could occur on the Kermadec subduction interface in the central Kermadecs. This scenario is very complex and when combined with the current uncertainty in our models, we cannot confidently put a probability estimate on it occurring; however, our models suggest this is even less likely to occur near the location of the March 5th East Cape M7.1 earthquake. This scenario is similar to what occurred in the Tohoku Earthquake in Japan in 2011. Although it is still extremely unlikely, the chances of this occurring have increased since the M8.1 earthquake

 

Geektastic:

MikeB4:

 

@Geektastic you didn't feel last nights 7.1? I admire your sleeping ability. You are far enough up Wairarapa to be OK. I wouldn't feel comfortable in Ngawi.

 

Not a thing. Woke at 8am, sauntered down to the kitchen for coffee. Got the sausages out if the freezer, made the batter got tonight’s Toad In The Hole. Walked the dogs. Fed the goat. Got call from wife!

Not a thing? You attend in the risk group so it was never a thing and hardly worth commenting

Behodar:

 

floydbloke:

 

How will we recognise you?🙂

 

 

I'm sure the chances are low! There were a lot of people and I'd only have been in camera range for a few seconds.

 

As expected, while they did show a clip of people coming down the stairs, no sign of me.

tdgeek:

 

Not a thing? You attend in the risk group so it was never a thing and hardly worth commenting

 

Not a thing here either - until my SO woke me up to tell me - about half an hour after she'd been woken up by the quake - she's a light sleeper, it's can't have been much here (Chch hills).

I guess she didn't wake me up immediately 'cause she knows I'd get fixated on it, but I took a look, noted that someone had already posted on GZ, decided from info from GNS and USGS that the E Cape quake was no big deal really, so I went back to sleep. (No big deal, was strike slip - quite deep, and far enough away to not be a major problem to anyone).

Then the Kermadec quakes happen.  Those give me the screamers, reverse faulting, very big (largest quake anywhere for a couple of years?) and I do not like big foreshocks followed by massive main shocks, they give me an uneasy feeling about any quake here on the shaky isles - every time the earth moves, which has been rather more noticeable over the past decade.

Fred99:

 

Not a thing here either - until my SO woke me up to tell me - about half an hour after she'd been woken up by the quake - she's a light sleeper, it's can't have been much here (Chch hills).

 

I guess she didn't wake me up immediately 'cause she knows I'd get fixated on it, but I took a look, noted that someone had already posted on GZ, decided from info from GNS and USGS that the E Cape quake was no big deal really, so I went back to sleep. (No big deal, was strike slip - quite deep, and far enough away to not be a major problem to anyone).

 

Then the Kermadec quakes happen.  Those give me the screamers, reverse faulting, very big (largest quake anywhere for a couple of years?) and I do not like big foreshocks followed by massive main shocks, they give me an uneasy feeling about any quake here on the shaky isles - every time the earth moves, which has been rather more noticeable over the past decade.

 

Yep,no biggie, but an 8, 10km deep, layer revised to 19km, still shallow, thats huge on the plate boundary. I never felt any of them Aidanfield, ChCh)

I was going to comment today but didn't. NZ is a quiet place, but we've had EQ's in multiple places, shooting, volcanoes, there seems to never be a quiet time these days.

Anyone else changed the notification settings on their Geonet app yet?

Westward bound: Quake shifts Hawke's Bay one centimetre to the west - NZ Herald:

 

Last week's 7.3 magnitude quake was the type to move mountains - with parts of the East Coast including Hawke's Bay being pushed 1cm to the west-southwest.

 

It was one of three big quakes which struck in quick succession, followed a few hours later by a M7.4 and M8.1 earthquake in the Kermadec Islands (Rangitāhua), which made it difficult for scientists to unravel.

 

freitasm:

Westward bound: Quake shifts Hawke's Bay one centimetre to the west - NZ Herald:

Last week's 7.3 magnitude quake was the type to move mountains - with parts of the East Coast including Hawke's Bay being pushed 1cm to the west-southwest.

It was one of three big quakes which struck in quick succession, followed a few hours later by a M7.4 and M8.1 earthquake in the Kermadec Islands (Rangitāhua), which made it difficult for scientists to unravel.

Geonet have easily accessible geodetic data (mapped / clickable) on their site.

I do believe you can see already the westward shift on the plots at Waiomatatini (near Ruatoria):

OTOH, it's kind of small when compared to the movement recorded for the Kaikoura quake:

It also looks like Raoul Island has shifted about 400mm east, 20mm South, and sunk about 100mm.