Real estate, post level 4

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#2786068 29-Sep-2021 08:50

Passive house subdivision in ChCh, very very cool

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/sustainable-living/126469162/sheep-grazing-next-door-contribute-to-new-zealands-first-passive-house-subdivision

Until I read the "starts at $1.3M" !

tdgeek

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#2786763 30-Sep-2021 08:25

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126535059/nearly-165000-migrants-eligible-for-fasttracked-residency

I wonder where they will live?

Handle9

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#2786765 30-Sep-2021 08:28

tdgeek:
https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126535059/nearly-165000-migrants-eligible-for-fasttracked-residency

I wonder where they will live?

Where they live today.

quickymart

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#2786767 30-Sep-2021 08:32

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/09/two-decade-exemption-for-new-builds-in-tax-change-meant-to-deter-property-investment.html

One paragraph in this story did give me a (tiny) bit of hope:

There is hope on the horizon. Estimates from Stats NZ released in July showed the number of new homes consented in the year ended May was at an all-time high of 43,466 - an increase of 17 percent.

If that's the case, surely Kiwibuild's goal of 100,000 homes would be completed in 2-3 years? Maybe I'm being too optimistic. And I do wonder if that would end up making much difference to prices anyway.

tdgeek

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#2786768 30-Sep-2021 08:32

Handle9:
tdgeek:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/126535059/nearly-165000-migrants-eligible-for-fasttracked-residency

I wonder where they will live?

Where they live today.

Ok, upon arrival to NZ

Shadowfoot

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#2786773 30-Sep-2021 08:43

tdgeek:

Handle9:

Where they live today.

Ok, upon arrival to NZ

They already live in NZ. One of the criteria is that they have lived in New Zealand for three or more years.

Blue Sky: shadowfoot.bsky.social

tdgeek

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#2786775 30-Sep-2021 08:47

Shadowfoot:

They already live in NZ. One of the criteria is that they have lived in New Zealand for three or more years.

OK my bad, I assumed it was bring more skilled workers in. I thought we needed more skilled workers, but maybe thats not the case.

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heavenlywild

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#2786833 30-Sep-2021 10:30

quickymart:

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2021/09/two-decade-exemption-for-new-builds-in-tax-change-meant-to-deter-property-investment.html

One paragraph in this story did give me a (tiny) bit of hope:

There is hope on the horizon. Estimates from Stats NZ released in July showed the number of new homes consented in the year ended May was at an all-time high of 43,466 - an increase of 17 percent.

If that's the case, surely Kiwibuild's goal of 100,000 homes would be completed in 2-3 years? Maybe I'm being too optimistic. And I do wonder if that would end up making much difference to prices anyway.

Consented doesn't mean it is built or will be built. That's the big caveat in that number. With shortages in building supplies and builders, it's likely the end result will be very different.

CCC is a better measure.

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quickymart

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#2787494 1-Oct-2021 08:30

https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/money/2021/10/property-average-asking-price-falls-to-4-month-low-realestate-co-nz.html

Any drop in price is always welcome...but the amount is so small, it's not going to make much difference to most home buyers.

quickymart

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#2787496 1-Oct-2021 08:33

As per Fred's comment many pages ago when I asked a similar question:

Fred99:

quickymart:

https://www.rnz.co.nz/news/business/444047/housing-market-risk-of-sharp-correction-rising-bnz-economists

"Consenting" doesn't always translate into a new house being built once consent is granted, right?

No. But there's a considerable cost for applying and a limited time window from when consent is issued to completion and issuing code compliance.

There's no point getting building consent, then sitting the paperwork on the shelf. It's reasonable to assume that most building consents applied for will be completed, exceptions would probably be multi-unit projects where the developer goes bust.

There was a peak in consents issued in 2004. 2 year fixed rates dropped to 6.5% before rising again until the GFC.

heavenlywild

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#2787504 1-Oct-2021 09:10

The fact prices are still going up even during lockdown tells you the housing beast is only going to get bigger and uglier over summer.

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eracode

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#2787513 1-Oct-2021 09:30

Our adult son listed his home in Auckland yesterday. It's a very well-presented 190 sq m, 3-bdr, 10-yo, 2-storey home on a small section.

Even under current Level 3 viewing conditions, the agent says already she is inundated with enquiries from people wanting to make a time to visit it. After less than 24 hours the Trademe version of the listing has nearly 1,500 page views. I don't really know if that's a lot for real estate but sounds a lot to me.

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heavenlywild

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#2787534 1-Oct-2021 10:42

eracode:

Our adult son listed his home in Auckland yesterday. It's a very well-presented 190 sq m, 3-bdr, 10-yo, 2-storey home on a small section.

Even under current Level 3 viewing conditions, the agent says already she is inundated with enquiries from people wanting to make a time to visit it. After less than 24 hours the Trademe version of the listing has nearly 1,500 page views. I don't really know if that's a lot for real estate but sounds a lot to me.

Goodness, and imagine when we are at level 2 or 1 + the peak summer season. I think we have yet to peak in prices!

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quickymart

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#2787535 1-Oct-2021 10:46

It reminds me a bit of petrol prices in the 2000s and even the 2010s. Remember when $1.50 per litre sounded "expensive" and anything over $2 was unheard of? And here we are in 2021, last time it was below $2 was during level 4 last year when basically the whole world went into lockdown and worldwide demand for fuel dropped drastically.

heavenlywild

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#2787549 1-Oct-2021 11:19

quickymart:

It reminds me a bit of petrol prices in the 2000s and even the 2010s. Remember when $1.50 per litre sounded "expensive" and anything over $2 was unheard of? And here we are in 2021, last time it was below $2 was during level 4 last year when basically the whole world went into lockdown and worldwide demand for fuel dropped drastically.

It's amazing how quickly we forget and get used to seeing particular prices for things.

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