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tdgeek
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  #3083547 2-Jun-2023 06:44
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Handle9:

Current interest rates are well within historical norms. Continuously denying there’s a problem and sayng it’s all fine is disingenuous.

 

Current interest rates are historical norms? If so, there is supposedly no problem? Actually the OCR is 5.5% so interest rates are above historical norms. However those that have a mortgage  or bought since 2020 have enjoyed super low rates, so the average interest rate for the last few years is fine, and they will ease in time. FHB's are buying heavily now. Thats good news for them. Those that bought at silly interest rates and paid high in a market frenzy took the risk, knowing that interest rates wont stay low. But yes they will return to historical norms, they still have the same house and will in time be paying normal interest rates. Well they are now, averaging the super low and todays high, they will ease to normal. House prices are easing, thats what the public want, its happening. The only casualties are those that bought in the market frenzy, but they still have the same house, they  are paying normal interest rates on average. 

 

IMO its more or less fine. House prices wont go back to pre pandemic, but because NZ doesnt build enough, they would have continued upwards anyway had there been no pandemic, as has always been the case in past decades. The vast majority of mortgage holders, were mortgage holders pre pandemic. Rates went down, great, now up, on average its fine. 




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  #3083549 2-Jun-2023 06:48
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Grossly unaffordable house are fine. Righto.


tdgeek
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  #3083552 2-Jun-2023 07:12
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Handle9:

 

Grossly unaffordable house are fine. Righto.

 

 

If FHB's are buying heavily right now, they would appear to not be grossly unaffordable. Unaffordable? Yes, but they have been unaffordable for a long long time. Currently wages are well up that helps buyers. House prices continue to drop, that helps buyers. Hard to know what affordability would have been like had there been no pandemic, but house prices would have  been rising and wages would continue to be increasing at low rates. As has been the case for a long long time.  




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  #3083554 2-Jun-2023 07:25
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There is an accepted definition for severe unaffordability.

The median nz household income is 89k. The median house price is 762k. The ratio for severe unaffordability is a ratio of 5.1, NZ sits at 8.5.

You may be fine but a lot of people aren’t.

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  #3083556 2-Jun-2023 07:32
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I think high multipliers are not new. Are we more or less fine compared to pre pandemic? I believe so, things have and are winding themselves back

 

NZ has had unaffordable housing for a long period, its not a 2020-2023 issue. I 100% agree houses are unaffordable, no question, and as NZ doesn't do anything about it, it will continue to be the case

 

The context of this thread is its a now issue, it isn't. It has been for many many years


  #3083562 2-Jun-2023 07:55
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tdgeek:

 

Handle9:

 

Grossly unaffordable house are fine. Righto.

 

 

If FHB's are buying heavily right now...

 

That's not what the data is saying. Yes, FHBs make up a higher percentage of buyers today but their numbers are still down (lowest since 2011 the article says). Their just not down as much as total sales.

 

FHBs will still purchase houses during times of unaffordability because they need to. 2nd/3rd time buyers can afford not too, and therefore total sales are down.


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  #3083610 2-Jun-2023 08:08
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Senecio:

 

 

 

If FHB's are buying heavily right now

 

That's not what the data is saying. Yes, FHBs make up a higher percentage of buyers today but their numbers are still down (lowest since 2011 the article says). Their just not down as much as total sales.

 

FHBs will still purchase houses during times of unaffordability because they need to. 2nd/3rd time buyers can afford not too, and therefore total sales are down.

 

 

Thanks for clarifying.

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/131993230/weaker-market-pretty-good-for-firsthome-buyers

 

 

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/life-style/homed/real-estate/131786691/house-price-plummet-from-market-peak-continues

 

"But there were 5877 sales nationwide in March, up from 4113 in February 2023, and the highest number of sales in a month since last March."

 

But yes, volume is down 15%, but increasing it seems.


 
 
 

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  #3100936 7-Jul-2023 13:11
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tdgeek
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  #3100956 7-Jul-2023 13:20
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quickymart:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/132492569/nz-slumps-to-near-bottom-in-international-house-price-growth-ranks

 

A sign that things have turned around (finally)? Or not really?

 

 

It is real, a fact


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  #3100969 7-Jul-2023 13:56
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Handle9: 
The median nz household income is 89k. The median house price is 762k. The ratio for severe unaffordability is a ratio of 5.1, NZ sits at 8.5.

 

 

 

Median households are not buying median houses. 


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  #3101017 7-Jul-2023 16:30
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quickymart:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/132492569/nz-slumps-to-near-bottom-in-international-house-price-growth-ranks


A sign that things have turned around (finally)? Or not really?



Not really. Nothing has structurally changed so it’s just the down cycle before it all goes up again.

Once inflation comes down and mortgage rates drop a bit there will be a lot more activity with people who have held off moving during uncertain times buying again.

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  #3101042 7-Jul-2023 17:44
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Handle9:
quickymart:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/property/132492569/nz-slumps-to-near-bottom-in-international-house-price-growth-ranks

 

 

 

A sign that things have turned around (finally)? Or not really?

 



Not really. Nothing has structurally changed so it’s just the down cycle before it all goes up again.

Once inflation comes down and mortgage rates drop a bit there will be a lot more activity with people who have held off moving during uncertain times buying again.

 

Agree, the natural cycle.

 

We can let the market manage this, but with a tiny economy, we are exposed. Alternatively, excessively try to control it

 

As I think SIR posted, NZ has a LOT of innovation, but its majorly foreign owned, so its not NZ.  


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  #3101043 7-Jul-2023 17:47
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tdgeek:

 

As I think SIR posted, NZ has a LOT of innovation, but its majorly foreign owned, so its not NZ.  

 

 

Nah. If NZ had "a lot" of much innovation workforce productivity would have grown significantly. It hasn't.


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  #3101046 7-Jul-2023 17:53
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Nah. If NZ had "a lot" of much innovation workforce productivity would have grown significantly. It hasn't.

 

 

SIRs post was that we had/have a lot of innovation, but its foreign owned, so its not NZ after all. Couple I recall, Rocket Lab and Weta. NZ, great, but they arent, they may as well be located in Estonia, apart from a few wages

 

Productivity hasnt grown, correct. But we hear of these noteworthy ventures, which are actually foreign ventures.

 

 


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  #3101048 7-Jul-2023 17:58
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tdgeek:

 

Handle9:

 

Nah. If NZ had "a lot" of much innovation workforce productivity would have grown significantly. It hasn't.

 

 

SIRs post was that we had/have a lot of innovation, but its foreign owned, so its not NZ after all. Couple I recall, Rocket Lab and Weta. NZ, great, but they arent, they may as well be located in Estonia, apart from a few wages

 

Productivity hasnt grown, correct. But we hear of these noteworthy ventures, which are actually foreign ventures.

 

 

So what if they are foreign owned? Labour force productivity measures value added by the workforce not where the profits go. 

 

Having a few innovative companies doesn't prove much of anything and certainly doesn't show "a lot" of innovation. If you have "a lot" of innovation you rapidly grow productivity and it's displayed in the statistics.

 

New Zealand has a small, fairly stagnant economy. It is what it is. 


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