Time to give electricity the flick?

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#1749305 28-Mar-2017 11:35

pogo:

I've just changed over to Flick (I'm in Canterbury). Can anyone tell me how often I can expect price spikes? Do these generally happen at a certain time of day? Is it likely that they could happen overnight when things like hot water, heat pump, or perhaps an EV are charging?

Price spikes seem to be less common in the South Island than the North. They can happen anytime but seem to be more frequent in peak times e.g cold afternoon/evening.

If you are on the Orion (Christchurch) network then it's more important to understand the pricing schedule - peak/offpeak/shoulder pricing

timmmay

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#1749311 28-Mar-2017 11:49

pogo:

I've just changed over to Flick (I'm in Canterbury). Can anyone tell me how often I can expect price spikes? Do these generally happen at a certain time of day? Is it likely that they could happen overnight when things like hot water, heat pump, or perhaps an EV are charging?

In Wellington, none recently. Prices rise during peak times just about every day in winter though, 7-8 and 5:30 - 7:30. Spikes tend to occur when there's just not enough generation capacity (ie a super cold day) or when there's a sudden unexpected demand like a cold snap that wasn't forecast.

voy1d

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#1749315 28-Mar-2017 11:52

timmmay:

In Wellington, none recently. Prices rise during peak times just about every day in winter though, 7-8 and 5:30 - 7:30. Spikes tend to occur when there's just not enough generation capacity (ie a super cold day) or when there's a sudden unexpected demand like a cold snap that wasn't forecast.

*bites lip*

jonathan18

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#1749316 28-Mar-2017 11:54

pogo:

I've just changed over to Flick (I'm in Canterbury). Can anyone tell me how often I can expect price spikes? Do these generally happen at a certain time of day? Is it likely that they could happen overnight when things like hot water, heat pump, or perhaps an EV are charging?

First off, just like financial investment returns, trends of past spikes are no indication of future trends! Also, I imagine the frequency, timing and severity will vary by location.

My experience after being with Flick just pm two years is significant spikes have been few and far between. There was a spike (ha ha) of them last year - this was discussed quite a bit at the time in this thread so perhaps go back to read these posts? I recall only one or two of those made a significant impact on the bill. So, overall, thus far it's been fairly smooth sailing. A programme on NatRad's This Way Up last Saturday on power options mentioned it's been a relatively benign market the past few years, with falling demand, overcapacity and increased competition keeping the market relatively subdued.

timmmay

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#1749373 28-Mar-2017 13:14

voy1d:

*bites lip*

Pricing has been very flat recently. There may have been the odd spike here or there, but nothing noteworthy that I remember.

What is still confusing me is the Flick rate is flat, but the market prices fluctuates a lot.

timmmay

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#1749380 28-Mar-2017 13:32

You have to think about the big picture, not the daily fluctuations. According to Flick, since I moved over two years ago I've spent 25% less than I would on my old provider.

My usage patterns have changed a little - I heat hot water overnight and run the dishwasher overnight. We lost the discounted off peak line charge recently though, which means heating water overnight is only a small advantage now - the payback period is longer and really only make sense as it mitigates bulk power usage during spikes.

I talked to someone at Wellington Electricity recently, after I sent in an email about the changes to off-peak power increasing bills. The gist what they said was they're considering introducing off peak pricing, but it would take some time, not least due to regulations such as only changing prices annually. They said something about other providers who've introduced it haven't seen wide adoption, and I guess it costs them money to make changes like that, plus not all power companies can support that pricing model. They're a business as well as a utility, so I guess there's no real reason for them to offer off-peak discounts without raising peak prices, unless peak load capacity is a problem.

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#1749388 28-Mar-2017 13:44

I'm in Christchurch too and have been with Flick since Oct. In that time, I'm reasonably sure the per unit cost has only once ever risen (spiked) above what I would have paid if I were still with Genesis - and that was in an off peak period a few Sundays ago. As has been stated, the spikes are infrequent and short lived - whereas the troughs have happened more often and are longer lasting (e.g. between around 1:30am and 3:30am this morning, the spot price was around 0.1c per unit. There was a weekend in Nov. when the Cook Strait cable was down for maintenance - the spot price flat-lined for most of a day.

voy1d

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#1749427 28-Mar-2017 14:25

timmmay:

voy1d:

*bites lip*

Pricing has been very flat recently. There may have been the odd spike here or there, but nothing noteworthy that I remember.

What is still confusing me is the Flick rate is flat, but the market prices fluctuates a lot.

My biting lip was your comment around the demand forecasting. Lets just say that yes you were right about "cold snaps not being forecast" but usually everyone but a certain organisation involved in the market sees them coming a mile out. If you read this you might be able to read between the lines of what I'm saying.

The last few weeks prices haven't tended to move too much away from the $40 - $50 MWh bracket though to be fair they did elevate to around $80 last week. Summer / Autumn tends to be pretty flat especially given the price points in the market. It's also important to note that 5 minute schedules aren't used in the final pricing runs but they do provide an indication of what is going on.

Overall, as hydro storage decreases in the South Island (you're starting to see this with the Manapouri and Clutha schemes backing off) prices may elevate. The impact on the NI is entirely dependent on what happens with IR as well.

But if you wanted a one liner "Demand has been softer than it has historically been at this time of the year"

nofam

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#1756989 5-Apr-2017 13:29

I'm trying to work out whether Flick will stack up for my use-case (new build, loads of insulation, and underfloor heating/hot water cylinder heated via air-to-water heatpump).

Conventional wisdom with this kind of set up is that you get uncontrolled day/night pricing, and while the spot-pricing model sounds appealing, I must confess I find Flick's pricing hard to get my head around, especially when I don't know what spot rates are in Dunedin (Mosgiel specifically) for certain times of year/day

Any assistance welcome!!

timmmay

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#1757013 5-Apr-2017 13:47

Flick is typically cheaper than other power companies, but more variable. If you think you'll use a lot of power in peak periods in winter (6:30 - 8am, 5:30 - 7:30pm) then you might consider elsewhere, but with your setup I doubt you'll have large peak usage. Flick should be cheaper for you.

For bonus points, have your water heating run outside peak periods, ideally overnight. A cylinder lasts a surprisingly long time without any heating - if we have three average showers in a day it'd last 2-3 days. Of course we heat every night, and you should heat at least every night to avoid legionaries disease.

nickb800

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#1757015 5-Apr-2017 13:56

nofam:

I'm trying to work out whether Flick will stack up for my use-case (new build, loads of insulation, and underfloor heating/hot water cylinder heated via air-to-water heatpump).

Conventional wisdom with this kind of set up is that you get uncontrolled day/night pricing, and while the spot-pricing model sounds appealing, I must confess I find Flick's pricing hard to get my head around, especially when I don't know what spot rates are in Dunedin (Mosgiel specifically) for certain times of year/day

Any assistance welcome!!

See here for spot price history

http://www.emi.ea.govt.nz/Datasets/Wholesale/Final_pricing/Final_prices

As you can see it is highly variable. I work off an average 6cents/unit in Christchurch, which should be similar to you.

One basic test is to add 6cents/unit (spot price) to Flick's winter variable price and compare to your next best retailer (make sure you are consistently including or excluding GST). If the total price per unit in winter with Flick is comparable to your next best retailer, then you'll probably be better off with Flick as you'll be saving oodles in summer and off-peak, even if winter is comparable.

How much control do you have over your heat pump systems - can you set timers?

nofam

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#1757016 5-Apr-2017 13:58

timmmay:

Flick is typically cheaper than other power companies, but more variable. If you think you'll use a lot of power in peak periods in winter (6:30 - 8am, 5:30 - 7:30pm) then you might consider elsewhere, but with your setup I doubt you'll have large peak usage. Flick should be cheaper for you.

For bonus points, have your water heating run outside peak periods, ideally overnight. A cylinder lasts a surprisingly long time without any heating - if we have three average showers in a day it'd last 2-3 days. Of course we heat every night, and you should heat at least every night to avoid legionaries disease.

Thanks timmmay - yes, as I understand it, the UFH control will come on at a scheduled time - typically this is 11pm - 7am for night rates on an uncontrolled plan, with the theory being that your concrete slab acts as a heatsink, absorbing the cheap heat all night, and then dissipating in during daylight hours to provide warmth. Because the HWC also provides all domestic hot water, it can come on 'on-demand' to bring the cylinder back up to the required heat.

I suspect you'd pretty much get day/night rates effectively with Flick, as the spot price must be based on demand/supply, so the spot at 2am must surely be lower than at 6pm?

I've also specified dishwasher/washing machine/dryer to have delayed start timers, so I can run these in the middle of the night, once I established when spot pricing was typically lower.

@SumnerBoy - you have an UFH setup very much like I'm doing - are you with Flick?

timmmay

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#1757022 5-Apr-2017 14:06

Using timers like that you're very likely to save with Flick. Have a look at the price history Nick posted, or even easier this one which is for the past day or so. Yes it is typically going to be quite a bit cheaper to use power overnight. Don't forget to add the line rate and such to to the floating price.

SumnerBoy

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#1757023 5-Apr-2017 14:07

I am with Meridian down here in ChCh so have cheap night rates from 9pm-7am.

nofam

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#1757026 5-Apr-2017 14:10

SumnerBoy:

I am with Meridian down here in ChCh so have cheap night rates from 9pm-7am.

Cool - have you ever looked into whether spot-based pricing might be cheaper?

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