Real estate, post COVID-19 level 4 (since 2020)

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#2490041 23-May-2020 12:48

mattwnz:

This why I am a bit perplexed why as part of the budget, they are wanting to build an extra 8000 new state homes. A lot of people appear to have returned to NZ with the virus, pushing us to over 5 million so there has been some increase. What population does NZ want? Or is growing the population by 80,000 a year through immigration, NZs growth strategy? IMO it isn't sustainable long term, and also needs massive infrastructure and services spending to match, which hasn't kept up. I mean why does Auckland have a water crisis again when that pipeline was supposed to provide a fix for previous water crisis's. In the meantime Aucklands population has skyrocketed.

We have a housing shortage, I dont see how that has changed. If immigration is reduced, its still increasing the population. Builders build houses every year, but we still ended up with an under supply. Social housing was sold off in the past, its being rebuilt, I think this 8000 is partly to add impetus to employment with we will need

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#2490043 23-May-2020 12:53

Batman:

well if the question was , per thread title, real estate immediately post level 4 - Auckland version, then the answer is

https://www.oneroof.co.nz/news/37939

Yes, and why not. A LOT of people did not lose their jobs in the lockdown, still have the same great assets, so life goes on in that respect. In your link, a few of them did battle at the auction it seems.

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#2490052 23-May-2020 13:16

mattwnz:

This why I am a bit perplexed why as part of the budget, they are wanting to build an extra 8000 new state homes. A lot of people appear to have returned to NZ with the virus, pushing us to over 5 million so there has been some increase. What population does NZ want? Or is growing the population by 80,000 a year through immigration, NZs growth strategy? IMO it isn't sustainable long term, and also needs massive infrastructure and services spending to match, which hasn't kept up. I mean why does Auckland have a water crisis again when that pipeline was supposed to provide a fix for previous water crisis's. In the meantime Aucklands population has skyrocketed.

I don't think there's much risk of them building 8000 houses. Just remind me, how many Kiwibuild houses did they ever get built?

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#2490133 23-May-2020 17:35

Technofreak:

mattwnz:

This why I am a bit perplexed why as part of the budget, they are wanting to build an extra 8000 new state homes. A lot of people appear to have returned to NZ with the virus, pushing us to over 5 million so there has been some increase. What population does NZ want? Or is growing the population by 80,000 a year through immigration, NZs growth strategy? IMO it isn't sustainable long term, and also needs massive infrastructure and services spending to match, which hasn't kept up. I mean why does Auckland have a water crisis again when that pipeline was supposed to provide a fix for previous water crisis's. In the meantime Aucklands population has skyrocketed.

I don't thinks there's much risk of them building 8000 houses. Just remind me, how many Kiwibuild houses did they ever get built?

LOL, yes we will talk Kiwibuild for years! Social housing builds have been solid all through. Replacing what was sold off

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#2490175 23-May-2020 19:43

And that's what the government should build, social housing, not new builds for middles class marketing managers and doctors like the first Kiwibuild buyers.

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#2490188 23-May-2020 20:09

I just wish there were more affordable houses in Auckland. I dunno who in the Government came up with the idea that $650,000 for a new [Kiwibuild] house - or any other type of house - is "affordable". As mentioned above, unless you're a doctor or something, most people can't afford it.

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#2490359 24-May-2020 08:42

quickymart:

I just wish there were more affordable houses in Auckland. I dunno who in the Government came up with the idea that $650,000 for a new [Kiwibuild] house - or any other type of house - is "affordable". As mentioned above, unless you're a doctor or something, most people can't afford it.

Agree. The housing affordability crisis has already bolted by then. I guess 650 was the bottom end of a new house, than an affordable house.

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#2518795 7-Jul-2020 22:19

Came across this article tonight:
https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/housing-market/beyond-2020-the-next-housing-boom

(OMG! John Bolton also writes about property! Maybe not the same guy though...) interesting to see his assumptions about prices dropping. He also mentions that if house prices had followed a normal trajectory they would be around the $365 000 - not the levels they are today). But this bit concerns me the most:

If incomes continue to grow by four percent per year over the next ten years, then the median house price in New Zealand will be $1.0m by 2030.

How on Earth are my boys meant to afford a place of their own when they're in their 20s or whatever and ready to buy? Granted, it's some years away - but in 10 years if it's going to be over a million, what about 20 years? 30? $2 million? $3 million? Where does it stop, or is it just going to keep rising forever?

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#2518802 7-Jul-2020 22:54

quickymart:

Came across this article tonight:
https://www.squirrel.co.nz/blogs/housing-market/beyond-2020-the-next-housing-boom

(OMG! John Bolton also writes about property! Maybe not the same guy though...) interesting to see his assumptions about prices dropping. He also mentions that if house prices had followed a normal trajectory they would be around the $365 000 - not the levels they are today). But this bit concerns me the most:

If incomes continue to grow by four percent per year over the next ten years, then the median house price in New Zealand will be $1.0m by 2030.

How on Earth are my boys meant to afford a place of their own when they're in their 20s or whatever and ready to buy? Granted, it's some years away - but in 10 years if it's going to be over a million, what about 20 years? 30? $2 million? $3 million? Where does it stop, or is it just going to keep rising forever?

You should teach your boys to learn the required skills on the market and they can easily earn the amount of $$$ what's required for a good house.

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#2518893 8-Jul-2020 08:29

engedib:

You should teach your boys to learn the required skills on the market and they can easily earn the amount of $$$ what's required for a good house.

The thing is, society cannot function without nurses, schoolteachers, police, cleaners, aged care workers, bus drivers etc ... none of which can easily earn the amount of $$$ what's required for a good house.

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#2518948 8-Jul-2020 09:01

Just speaking about Auckland, there aren't enough options and not only that, NZ still has that annoying stigma that one must own a property, one that is large with a section.

What was annoying when we were looking was:

- Anything relatively close to the city (30 minute commute range car or PT) was higher than $800k, and incredibly average in quality.
- Apartments were small, if you wanted a 2 bedroom that was fairly nice (to at least last you 5 years), you were nearly spending as much as the above, yet, it came with body corporate and a harder path with the bank to finance.
- Kiwibuild or new builds ($700k range) were in locations where the trade off for a tight, small section was not worth it. And, $600-700k is still a HEAP of money.

What I hope that changes is not necessarily more selection (to avoid a crash), but more options that satisfy people who don't fully have the means.

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#2519401 8-Jul-2020 15:52

I have my eye on a place which would have plenty of room, but it's around the $600,000 mark, and there's no way I could afford it without a flatmate (which I am not adverse to, by the way). Just $600,000 is a lot for an apartment, never mind a backyard, and then there are the body corporate fees, as mentioned.

I know there's the option of only needing a 5% deposit (bank-dependent), which could work for me, but then the mortgage repayments are astronomical. It feels like a no-win situation.

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#2519403 8-Jul-2020 15:53

quickymart:

I have my eye on a place which would have plenty of room, but it's around the $600,000 mark, and there's no way I could afford it without a flatmate (which I am not adverse to, by the way). Just $600,000 is a lot for an apartment, never mind a backyard, and then there are the body corporate fees, as mentioned.

buy in a new subdivision - they tend to be cheaper and usually prices go up once the suburb gets established

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#2524402 16-Jul-2020 21:40

Problem is there aren't many near my boys schools (like, none).

A month or so post-lockdown and prices really don't seem to have dropped much at all - is this it, or is there more on the way? I dunno, too hard to pick.

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#2524417 16-Jul-2020 21:47

It'll take another month or two to get a clear sense of where exactly the market is going. Core Logic are still picking price drops, but less than what's been forecast by economists and also less than the aftermath of the GFC.

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