Vancouver's Chinese property investors

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kingdragonfly

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#212720 9-Apr-2017 10:28

Perhaps it's a glimpse into New Zealand's future. From the Guardian:

"Driving the rise is an unprecedented flood of foreign capital, mainly from China [to Canada]. 'What you have is a huge pool of very wealthy people who want to hedge against uncertainty back home,' says Thomas Davidoff, a real estate economist at the University of British Columbia (UBC). 'Combine anxious money – a lot of it – with a beautiful gateway city that has limited space to build, low property taxes, lax regulation on capital flows, and wealth-friendly immigration programmes, and you get a market like this one,' – a market where an ordinary house with a waterfront view can sell for $15m while people earning local wages struggle to buy or rent a home.

In spite of spiking inequality, policymakers have been slow to acknowledge the problem of foreign capital. Public debate about Vancouver’s affordability crisis has, until recently, been surprisingly circumspect – due in no small part to a very Canadian discomfort with talking about race."

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/jul/07/vancouver-chinese-city-racism-meets-real-estate-british-columbia

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#1759742 9-Apr-2017 12:56

When foreign investment is less than 10% of the issue and Auckland is already as bad as it is then you know we'll never be like Vancouver. The existing Kiwi investors will never permit it.

surfisup1000

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#1759770 9-Apr-2017 13:52

UHD:

When foreign investment is less than 10% of the issue and Auckland is already as bad as it is then you know we'll never be like Vancouver. The existing Kiwi investors will never permit it.

I don't understand you at all.

You say kiwi investors will never allow chinese investment into housing? How on earth can the block it when it has already been happing for the last 25 years?

A friend recently put their house on the market in Auckland. The very first thing the real estate agent said was that he will find some chinese to buy it. Chinese money in the auckand real estate market is huge already... despite what the politicians may say.

The real estate agents are the ones you need to listen to.

mattwnz

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#1759799 9-Apr-2017 14:14

UHD:
When foreign investment is less than 10% of the issue and Auckland is already as bad as it is then you know we'll never be like Vancouver. The existing Kiwi investors will never permit it.

Where are you getting your figures from? They hadn't been keeping any records of who was buying until last year, and even that wasnt accurate, as I believe it excluded students etc. Foreign buying apparently has also cooled down since it's peak, perhaps partly due to the new measures brought in last year. Also apparently the percentage is far higher in Queenstown, where the council do have records of what country they sent rates demandsoff too, and it is a significant percentage .

We need to prevent foreign buyers buying our existing housing stock, and make them build new. It is as simple as that at the moment, and is what happens overseas. . We also need to react more quickly.

Sidestep

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#1759803 9-Apr-2017 14:31

That article is well out of date.

Since then the province of BC has instituted a 15% foreign buyer's tax (anyone non-resident) which has really knocked prices back.

mattwnz

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#1759808 9-Apr-2017 14:46

Sidestep:
That article is well out of date.

Since then the province of BC has instituted a 15% foreign buyer's tax (anyone non-resident) which has really knocked prices back.

The real question is why NZ hasn't brought something like this is. But I am guessing that anything that may reduce prices could put banks under pressure, as they may have lent out more than houses were really worth. So whether this means we will end up with house prices at a static level in some places for the next decade, I wouldn't be surprised

surfisup1000

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#1759823 9-Apr-2017 15:55

mattwnz:

The real question is why NZ hasn't brought something like this is. But I am guessing that anything that may reduce prices could put banks under pressure, as they may have lent out more than houses were really worth. So whether this means we will end up with house prices at a static level in some places for the next decade, I wouldn't be surprised

Firstly, what is a foreign buyer?

The government wants their money in our country, as it props up the currency and allows the rest of us to enjoy cheap overseas TV's and holidays.

Also, many in government are property investors themselves and they certainly don't want their net worth to decrease.

Geektastic

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#1759826 9-Apr-2017 16:03

Don't think of Chinese investment solely in terms of housing.

They already own a lot of the commercial real estate in Auckland in one way or another, I have heard.

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mattwnz

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#1759891 9-Apr-2017 20:12

surfisup1000:
mattwnz:

The real question is why NZ hasn't brought something like this is. But I am guessing that anything that may reduce prices could put banks under pressure, as they may have lent out more than houses were really worth. So whether this means we will end up with house prices at a static level in some places for the next decade, I wouldn't be surprised

Firstly, what is a foreign buyer?

The government wants their money in our country, as it props up the currency and allows the rest of us to enjoy cheap overseas TV's and holidays.

Also, many in government are property investors themselves and they certainly don't want their net worth to decrease.

Buying and selling existing houses though is unproductive. Someone overseas buys one year, they sell in 2 years and make a 30 percent gain and then that money goes back offshore. Potentially it makes nz poorer.

Many in government maybe property investors, but they should have to declare that interest when making decisions

Batman

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#1759932 9-Apr-2017 21:28

Wait till the Chinese are invited to build our roads in exchange for say, milk or forest or fishing rights or something.

tdgeek

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#1759950 9-Apr-2017 23:23

surfisup1000:

UHD:

When foreign investment is less than 10% of the issue and Auckland is already as bad as it is then you know we'll never be like Vancouver. The existing Kiwi investors will never permit it.

I don't understand you at all.

You say kiwi investors will never allow chinese investment into housing? How on earth can the block it when it has already been happing for the last 25 years?

A friend recently put their house on the market in Auckland. The very first thing the real estate agent said was that he will find some chinese to buy it. Chinese money in the auckand real estate market is huge already... despite what the politicians may say.

The real estate agents are the ones you need to listen to.

Yep. 10 kiwi buyers line up to pay a very good $600k for a house. One foreigner is happy to buy it so he pays over top dollar. Thus, the foreigners buy price evolves to be the standard price.

tdgeek

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#1759952 9-Apr-2017 23:32

mattwnz:
Sidestep:

That article is well out of date.

Since then the province of BC has instituted a 15% foreign buyer's tax (anyone non-resident) which has really knocked prices back.

The real question is why NZ hasn't brought something like this is. But I am guessing that anything that may reduce prices could put banks under pressure, as they may have lent out more than houses were really worth. So whether this means we will end up with house prices at a static level in some places for the next decade, I wouldn't be surprised

The tax is a good idea, but I reckon they may have residency or they funded their child that has residency. Hard to police if thats the case.

I dont buy the equity issue. The bank loaned the funds, its their problem. If houses dropped 20% today, the owners are still paying the mortgage. The bank has a risk, and the owner lost equity. Should interest rates go up a lot, thats another issue, as that will affect the affordability of the repayments. As you say, it would not surprise me if they didn't do anything, and prices stay static.

mattwnz

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#1759954 10-Apr-2017 00:37

tdgeek:

I dont buy the equity issue. The bank loaned the funds, its their problem. If houses dropped 20% today, the owners are still paying the mortgage. The bank has a risk, and the owner lost equity. Should interest rates go up a lot, thats another issue, as that will affect the affordability of the repayments. As you say, it would not surprise me if they didn't do anything, and prices stay static.

If a bank in NZ fails, it becomes everyone's problem, and it means a potential run on the other banks, as we don't have any government guarantee scheme like other countries. Also it may mean that a bank may need to be bailed out by the tax payers. Although they say a bank failure is an 'unlikely event', it has happened before.

The problem is that banks never want to be lending more to someone, than the house is actually worth. If they are then it causes all sorts of problems for them. That is why no one wants the price to plunge, except first home buyers, who have been locked out of buying in some place. So if houses do say static for 10 years, in reality they are dropping in price due to inflation. Inflation is probably going to save NZ from this housing crisis in the long run.

UHD

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#1759958 10-Apr-2017 01:06

surfisup1000:

UHD:

When foreign investment is less than 10% of the issue and Auckland is already as bad as it is then you know we'll never be like Vancouver. The existing Kiwi investors will never permit it.

I don't understand you at all.

You say kiwi investors will never allow chinese investment into housing? How on earth can the block it when it has already been happing for the last 25 years?

A friend recently put their house on the market in Auckland. The very first thing the real estate agent said was that he will find some chinese to buy it. Chinese money in the auckand real estate market is huge already... despite what the politicians may say.

The real estate agents are the ones you need to listen to.

All economists and analysts agree that the bulk of investment and speculation is done by Kiwis. A small portion (which only serves to further exacerbate an already out of control situation) is foreign investment but this is tiny compared to Kiwi money. The only organisations who are yet to get on board with the data seems to be NZ Herald/Stuff.

'Chinese investment' will always pale in comparison to the rampant speculation conducted by Kiwis regardless of how the Auckland market plays out. Global capital always looks for safe places to rest and NZ is relatively safe but there are still much safer and lucrative locations than Auckland in the world.

Linuxluver

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#1759975 10-Apr-2017 06:39

kingdragonfly: Perhaps it's a glimpse into New Zealand's future. From the Guardian:

"Driving the rise is an unprecedented flood of foreign capital, mainly from China [to Canada]. 'What you have is a huge pool of very wealthy people who want to hedge against uncertainty back home,' says Thomas Davidoff, a real estate economist at the University of British Columbia (UBC). 'Combine anxious money – a lot of it – with a beautiful gateway city that has limited space to build, low property taxes, lax regulation on capital flows, and wealth-friendly immigration programmes, and you get a market like this one,' – a market where an ordinary house with a waterfront view can sell for $15m while people earning local wages struggle to buy or rent a home.

In spite of spiking inequality, policymakers have been slow to acknowledge the problem of foreign capital. Public debate about Vancouver’s affordability crisis has, until recently, been surprisingly circumspect – due in no small part to a very Canadian discomfort with talking about race."

https://www.theguardian.com/cities/2016/jul/07/vancouver-chinese-city-racism-meets-real-estate-british-columbia

The future?

We're already there....and have been since the immigration floodgates opened in 2008 to allow National to gerrymander elections by bringing in people who will vote for them.

That's the real prize....and why the gates won't be closed any time soon. Plus the Maori vote - and any awareness of treaty issues - is diluted and limited to that small proportion of native Kiwis who have been paying attention. Most Pakeha and virtually all immigrants don't want to know about the real history of New Zealand or anything to do with the Treaty.

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Linuxluver

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#1759976 10-Apr-2017 06:44

surfisup1000:

UHD:

When foreign investment is less than 10% of the issue and Auckland is already as bad as it is then you know we'll never be like Vancouver. The existing Kiwi investors will never permit it.

I don't understand you at all.

You say kiwi investors will never allow chinese investment into housing? How on earth can the block it when it has already been happing for the last 25 years?

A friend recently put their house on the market in Auckland. The very first thing the real estate agent said was that he will find some chinese to buy it. Chinese money in the auckand real estate market is huge already... despite what the politicians may say.

The real estate agents are the ones you need to listen to.

I agree. Investors vote for National and National opened the immigration floodgates. Investors profit by this arrangement at the expense of everyone else. They won't just stand for it, they'll vote for it.

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I've been on Geekzone over 16 years..... Time flies....

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