2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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Mad Scientist
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#2605148 17-Nov-2020 08:32

DS248:
Moderna vaccine claimed to be "94.5% effective" (based on just 95 infections!). All preliminary of course ...

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300160174/coronavirus-second-covid19-vaccine-shows-overwhelming-success-in-us-tests

I presume the 2 vaccines they vaccinated the trial participants twice, checked ab levels each time, then exposed them to the live virus a month later?

frankv

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#2605160 17-Nov-2020 08:52

Batman:
DS248:

Moderna vaccine claimed to be "94.5% effective" (based on just 95 infections!). All preliminary of course ...

I presume the 2 vaccines they vaccinated the trial participants twice, checked ab levels each time, then exposed them to the live virus a month later?

Radio news said that half the Moderna participants who got the actual vaccine were given one dose (presumably and a placebo a month later), the others got 2 doses a month apart.

dafman

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#2605207 17-Nov-2020 09:03

No caption required.

Fred99

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#2605277 17-Nov-2020 10:56

Batman:

I presume the 2 vaccines they vaccinated the trial participants twice, checked ab levels each time, then exposed them to the live virus a month later?

That would be a "challenge trial" - so no, they'd go back into the community, then be monitored in the study. So with the Pfizer trial with several thousand participants, IIRC 93 became infected with C-19 over the trial period, neither the participants nor those conducting the trial *knew whether the participants received vaccine or placebo until the initial trial period was complete. If they did know - then that's a failure to meet "double blind" standards - the data from the trial is equivocal. Almost all of the 93 infected had received the placebo, the few who'd received the vaccine who became infected probably too small a number to state efficacy accurately, I think the claim was it seemed to be "at least" 90% effective. It's probably better than that (and Moderna's mRNA vaccine IIRC claims ~94% efficacy).

* it appears now that if you were a participant in a trial now, then you'd have a reasonable idea, the vaccine causes significant side effects - described as like a bad hangover. "Double blind" has limits.

With double-blind challenge trials, you'd be deliberately exposing participants to a potentially lethal virus, half of whom you'd know had no protection (but neither you or the participants would know which half). So despite being "volunteers", you'd probably screen participants to say age 20-35 with no health conditions related to high morbidity, to avoid killing too many people. If you do that, then you only get data on vaccine efficacy for people at very low risk from the infection anyway, which isn't giving unequivocal data if the main reason to vaccinate is to protect the vulnerable and reduce population mortality.

If you give all the volunteers the vaccine, then behaviour of participants will change, so the data is again compromised. But OTOH, as these vaccines are rolled out, behaviour of the vaccinated people will undoubtedly change, they'll assume that they're immune and not worry about getting infected (and passing on the infection). So they must get this trial data as accurate as possible and roll out the vaccine in a co-ordinated methodical way.

Fred99

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#2605292 17-Nov-2020 11:16

frankv:

Radio news said that half the Moderna participants who got the actual vaccine were given one dose (presumably and a placebo a month later), the others got 2 doses a month apart.

RNZ news state:

The trial involved 30,000 people in the US with half being given two doses of the vaccine, four weeks apart. The rest had dummy injections.

The analysis was based on the first 95 to develop Covid-19 symptoms.

Only five of the Covid cases were in people given the vaccine and 90 were in those given the dummy treatment. The company says the vaccine is protecting 94.5 percent of people.

(note with the low number - 5 infected who had received the vaccine - the 94.5% figure will have a large margin of error - the ~90% figure from the Pfizer vaccine is close enough to being the same, the Moderrna vaccine though has a big advantage for distribution, storage etc at higher temperatures).

IIRC the moderna vaccine mRNA is "protected" by a lipid membrane. That's how the virus (virions) protect their RNA, with a phospho-lipid membrane scavenged from human cells the virus invaded.

DS248

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#2605341 17-Nov-2020 11:41

Adelaide cluster increased by one overnight. Good to see that they have responded rapidly this time. Are clearly throwing resources at limiting the spread, with WA and Commonwealth contact tracers helping the SA teams & Defence Force troops en route to help as well. A bit reminiscent of the Auckland August cluster.

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/adelaide-covid-cluster-grows-as-new-locations-are-put-on-alert-c-1595156

Now believed the quarantine hotel worker may have picked up the virus after touching a contaminated surface. Is a back of house worker who never came into contact with anybody in a room. [Assuming there was not an as yet undetected intermediate case. But presumably not as by now all people working at the facility will likely have been tested.]

https://7news.com.au/sunrise/on-the-show/south-australia-premier-steven-marshall-reveals-how-experts-think-covid-got-into-state-c-1594894

tdgeek

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#2605345 17-Nov-2020 11:49

Thats a concerning leak, I thought only NZ had leaks due to our often criticised response.

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tdgeek

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#2605347 17-Nov-2020 11:54

Two Adelaide schools as well, appears unrelated to their latest cluster

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/adelaide-schools-mt-carmel-college-and-holy-family-catholic-school-close-over-covid-concerns-c-1595819

antonknee

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#2605358 17-Nov-2020 12:15

Bravo2020:
vexxxboy:or having someone to watch every person entering to make sure they do it, ok for the big shops . Im not sure the little shops could afford the cost of hiring some one to do it.

How would you stop them clearing the scan once they are in store?

Don't let perfect be the enemy of good.

We're not aiming for 100% here, and some people will always be idiots. I imagine the number who would do that would be very slim. You can't control for every little thing, and trying to shouldn't stop you from taking positive steps.

DS248

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#2605367 17-Nov-2020 12:37

tdgeek:

Two Adelaide schools as well, appears unrelated to their latest cluster

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/adelaide-schools-mt-carmel-college-and-holy-family-catholic-school-close-over-covid-concerns-c-1595819

All 18 currently confirmed (+ 2 probable?) cases in SA are part of one cluster - 15 of them from one family.

Not certain where you got the 'unrelated' from. In regard to one of the schools, the article states "A Year 2 student at Holy Family Catholic School has been deemed to be infectious based on their contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case"

Incidentally that is a young child so likely will not be swabbed - just deemed infectious based on symptoms and contact with a confirmed case.

Already hundreds placed into isolation so it is being treated seriously

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/one-new-case-coronavirus-sa-premier-steven-marshall-says/12890238

"If we reflect on the last 24 hours, today there's just been the one new infection despite the fact that we have essentially done the contact tracing for the people that are infected," Mr Marshall told ABC Radio Adelaide this morning.

"[We have] put a lot of people, I'm talking hundreds and hundreds of people, in isolation, subjected them to a test, and at this stage, just one new infection," he said.

tdgeek

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#2605379 17-Nov-2020 12:51

The article didnt mention the already known cluster till later, so it didnt seem related.

The point is, its a leak, and in NZ a leak is a leak, its bad, its poor handling of the situation, apparently

chatterbox

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#2605471 17-Nov-2020 13:40

DS248:
tdgeek:

Two Adelaide schools as well, appears unrelated to their latest cluster

https://7news.com.au/lifestyle/health-wellbeing/adelaide-schools-mt-carmel-college-and-holy-family-catholic-school-close-over-covid-concerns-c-1595819

All 18 currently confirmed (+ 2 probable?) cases in SA are part of one cluster - 15 of them from one family.

Not certain where you got the 'unrelated' from. In regard to one of the schools, the article states "A Year 2 student at Holy Family Catholic School has been deemed to be infectious based on their contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case"

Incidentally that is a young child so likely will not be swabbed - just deemed infectious based on symptoms and contact with a confirmed case.

Already hundreds placed into isolation so it is being treated seriously

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-11-17/one-new-case-coronavirus-sa-premier-steven-marshall-says/12890238

"If we reflect on the last 24 hours, today there's just been the one new infection despite the fact that we have essentially done the contact tracing for the people that are infected," Mr Marshall told ABC Radio Adelaide this morning.

"[We have] put a lot of people, I'm talking hundreds and hundreds of people, in isolation, subjected them to a test, and at this stage, just one new infection," he said.

They tested 3 children. All negative but due to symptoms and contact with positive cases they’re included in the positive numbers.

South Australia have had strong responses in the past. They’ll stamp this out. All cases linked so far.
They are also making the returned travelers restart their 14 days in a different hotel. Painful!

Batman

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#2605607 17-Nov-2020 16:53

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/us-nurses-horror-stories-as-covid-19-patients-gasping-for-air-still-dont-think-its-real/EEOETZUCAHCS6DGGJPKSOSH7JY/

"I have a night off from the hospital. As I'm on my couch with my dog I can't help but think of the Covid patients the last few days. The ones that stick out are those who still don't believe the virus is real. The ones who scream at you for a magic medicine and that Joe Biden is going to ruin the USA.

"All while gasping for breath on 100 per cent Vapotherm. They tell you there must be another reason they are sick. They call you names and ask why you have to wear all that 'stuff' because they don't have Covid because it's not real. Yes. This really happens.

Dratsab

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#2605813 18-Nov-2020 07:52

tdgeek: The point is, its a leak, and in NZ a leak is a leak, its bad, its poor handling of the situation, apparently

Yes, you'd think the sky was falling down every time!

tdgeek

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#2605814 18-Nov-2020 08:00

Dratsab:

tdgeek: The point is, its a leak, and in NZ a leak is a leak, its bad, its poor handling of the situation, apparently

Yes, you'd think the sky was falling down every time!

Yep. Everyone is doing their best, and unless we opt for a prison approach, and ban every flight and ship arriving here, there is always a risk. The aircraft arrivals are probably around 65,000 to 70,000 now, it's going fine. We are minimising the risk so Kiwis can come back home and business can operate. The risk reward tells me its working as well as can be expected.

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