2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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13684 posts

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#2679234 23-Mar-2021 12:47

wellygary:

antonknee:

At this stage considered very low risk as only a few locations of interest, asymptomatic, and caught via surveillance testing rather than a swab off the back of symptoms.

And this is the risk with the vaccination of MIQ workers, they will now remain asymptomatic...

they big unanswered question is are they carrying enough viral load to pass it on..... - The Air NZ case didn't , neither did the NSW hotel worker..

NZ, Aus, Taiwan, Singapore etc probably in the unique position of being able to test a hypothesis as we can quite reliably trace CT to border via genomic testing.

There's also the question of resistant strains, as yet unknown for the vaccine we're using, AFAIK just assumed that there will be a reduction based on results of (in vitro) neutralisation assay.

One thing better not happen now or in the near future - any risk compensation / letting down the guard until most of the population has been vaccinated.

Oblivian

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#2679240 23-Mar-2021 13:03

Fred99:

NZ, Aus, Taiwan, Singapore etc probably in the unique position of being able to test a hypothesis as we can quite reliably trace CT to border via genomic testing.

There's also the question of resistant strains, as yet unknown for the vaccine we're using, AFAIK just assumed that there will be a reduction based on results of (in vitro) neutralisation assay.

One thing better not happen now or in the near future - any risk compensation / letting down the guard until most of the population has been vaccinated.

That's the conclusion I come to here some time back. Although at the front it does make one at the mercy of the rest of the planet, while likely giving realtime stats on how it should work out.

It somewhat hinges on everyone else not throwing in the towel to keep ahead.

Fred99

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#2679245 23-Mar-2021 13:22

So there's a "weak positive case B - household contact" as well as case A.

Case A had received second vaccination dose on 16 March. So that's probably not quite the full 7 days from 2nd dose to achieve "full 95%") immunity, but pretty close.

Case B not vaccinated (Household contacts of these workers are next in line).

Both cases asymptomatic. 3 other household contacts tested negative so far.

There is so far one location of interest - Mt Roskill Countdown on Saturday March 20.

Genomic test data and re-test of case B expected tonight or early tomorrow.

Chris Hipkins "Risk from these cases is very very low"

Acknowledged the uncertainty around transmission from vaccinated people.

wellygary

8315 posts

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#2679250 23-Mar-2021 13:30

Total vaccinations given 38,800 includes ~34,200 first and ~4,600 with 2 doses

BUT Hipkins only gave this out after being directly asked this specific question... They really need to be more open

Fred99

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#2679254 23-Mar-2021 13:38

Some few % of frontline workers who haven't been vaccinated to be redeployed to low risk work in about two weeks.

Some interesting questions about vaccine hesitancy in the general community. No doubt this case will be used by anti-vaxxers to argue that "the vaccine doesn't work anyway".

Chris Hipkins not committing that in the case of a trans-Tasman bubble relieving pressure on MIQ that arrivals from high-risk countries will fully take the place of arrivals from Australia no longer needing to quarantine. It may be better to keep numbers down and use the opportunity to improve MIQ procedures. I hope so.

Oblivian

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#2679257 23-Mar-2021 13:41

Figure it was time for an updated visual

Fred99

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#2679278 23-Mar-2021 14:05

wellygary:

Total vaccinations given 38,800 includes ~34,200 first and ~4,600 with 2 doses

BUT Hipkins only gave this out after being directly asked this specific question... They really need to be more open

Partial explanation (or excuse if you want to go that way) given that when they ramp up vaccination rate, they want it to be consistent, not ramping up then ramping down because of logistics of vaccine delivery to NZ.

Sure it would be good to know the precise delivery schedule, but it wouldn't surprise me if contracts are not quite as cast in iron as most people would hope. Pfizer aren't going to tell us (the public) exactly how much and exactly when - they're no doubt dealing with political pressure from everywhere else with more critical needs than NZ. AstraZeneca's issues in Europe have probably added fuel to that fire.

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GV27

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#2679299 23-Mar-2021 14:53

Fred99:

Partial explanation (or excuse if you want to go that way) given that when they ramp up vaccination rate, they want it to be consistent, not ramping up then ramping down because of logistics of vaccine delivery to NZ.

Sure it would be good to know the precise delivery schedule, but it wouldn't surprise me if contracts are not quite as cast in iron as most people would hope. Pfizer aren't going to tell us (the public) exactly how much and exactly when - they're no doubt dealing with political pressure from everywhere else with more critical needs than NZ. AstraZeneca's issues in Europe have probably added fuel to that fire.

Other partial explanation: we had a slow start. We can only dish out so many 2nd vaccinations - they need the first one to be done first a certain time after the 2nd. As you say, if the supply of them has been unpredictable and the first vaccines haven't been done then it's going to hurt the 'fully vaccinated' numbers for weeks after you actually start ramping up the 1st shots.

If the three month windows are still realistic at this point then they're doing well.

networkn

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#2679386 23-Mar-2021 16:23

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300259068/covid19-miq-guests-stays-extended-after-sharing-exercise-bus-with-day-12-case

This is just seriously screwed up. 12 months later, it's still happening.

[Mod edit (MF): removed medical term]

antonknee

1133 posts

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#2679392 23-Mar-2021 16:31

networkn:

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/300259068/covid19-miq-guests-stays-extended-after-sharing-exercise-bus-with-day-12-case

This is just seriously demented. 12 months later, it's still happening.

This is such a stupid practice... I understand the need/desire for exercise and accept that some of the inner-city hotels don't have the facility for this. But maybe that's just something you have to accept as an MIQ guest, no outdoor exercise 14 days?

On the other hand, the gentleman in the story complaining he has to stay an extra five days “All because of these stupid bus rides,” the man said" - well it was your choice to get on the stupid bus and go exercise wasn't it? Could have said no thanks, surely?

networkn

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#2679396 23-Mar-2021 16:37

antonknee:

This is such a stupid practice... I understand the need/desire for exercise and accept that some of the inner-city hotels don't have the facility for this. But maybe that's just something you have to accept as an MIQ guest, no outdoor exercise 14 days?

On the other hand, the gentleman in the story complaining he has to stay an extra five days “All because of these stupid bus rides,” the man said" - well it was your choice to get on the stupid bus and go exercise wasn't it? Could have said no thanks, surely?

It's a freaking miracle we don't have more outbreaks with this sort of stuff going on.

I do not accept for one second that people can't live without exercise for 14 days. They can exercise in their rooms if it's so desperate. It's 14 days for crying out loud.

If there was no option to be on the bus, which is what I think should be the case, then there is no-one having to stay longer, and no-one complaining about it.

It's like people posting on Facebook they made life long friends whilst in MIQ.. HOW!?

Jase2985

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#2679397 23-Mar-2021 16:37

no personal responsibility

networkn

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#2679403 23-Mar-2021 16:43

Jase2985:

no personal responsibility

When the stakes are so high, you don't rely on people doing the right thing, you force them to do it. The stakes couldn't really be higher, why is this not covered in common sense MIQ management?

This happened when my sister came through MIQ 9 months ago, and she made a formal complaint about it. My Nephew came through 3 weeks later, same thing, she raised it again.

antonknee

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#2679414 23-Mar-2021 16:52

networkn:

It's a freaking miracle we don't have more outbreaks with this sort of stuff going on.

I do not accept for one second that people can't live without exercise for 14 days. They can exercise in their rooms if it's so desperate. It's 14 days for crying out loud.

If there was no option to be on the bus, which is what I think should be the case, then there is no-one having to stay longer, and no-one complaining about it.

It's like people posting on Facebook they made life long friends whilst in MIQ.. HOW!?

Quite... 14 days is not THAT long in the scheme of things and there are plenty of exercises you can do in your room. I was in self-isolation for 14 days and went outside for a walk around the block at 10pm exactly once, I survived. Albeit in an apartment not a hotel room, but still.

I realise 14 days without fresh air and green space is quite unpleasant, and I would not be keen to sign up for such myself, but I feel it's probably just the cost of travelling during a global pandemic. Other countries (Australia) seem to have taken the approach of locking the hotel door for 14 days.

As for people making friends in MIQ... probably on the bus in, on the exercise bus, or in the smoking areas (which as far as I know still allow mingling). Alternatively people probably do leave their rooms even when they're not meant to, human nature being what it is.

Jase2985

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#2679415 23-Mar-2021 16:52

the problem is thats hows its being operated, trusting people to do the right thing

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