2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2733965 24-Jun-2021 18:03

freitasm:
MadEngineer: I’m curious why there are vaccines available yet some vaccine centres are fully unbooked with over 75s within the DHB area not being sent appointments.

Had to convince in-laws to call the medical centre and make a fuss - they were told to wait for an invite that never came. They managed to book themselves in.

They’re also taking bookings for anyone and everyone. No questions

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sbiddle

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#2733979 24-Jun-2021 19:01

wellygary:

ezbee:

Thank goodness this Australian visitor downloaded our app and was a diligent scanner.

We have been given a chance to roll this back, as they got tested promptly, and we have details of where they were.

You're a Star.

Yip,

If we get out of this unscathed everyone in Wellington owes them many virtual beers...

And it potentially shows the benefits of being vaccinated, if anybody was in any doubt as to the benefits.

While vaccination doesn't 100% remove the risk of becoming ill or 100% remove the risk of transmission if you become ill, it certainly reduces the risk of both things occuring.

JPNZ

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#2734074 25-Jun-2021 08:39

SJB:

Delta+ strain has arrived in the UK apparently. More infectious than ever.

Yes, big increases happening now even with a country around 60% vaccinated

"Latest official figures showed a further 16,135 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases recorded in the UK on Wednesday — the highest since 6 February, and an almost 40 per cent increase in just 24 hours."

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wellygary

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#2734088 25-Jun-2021 09:05

JPNZ:

SJB:

Delta+ strain has arrived in the UK apparently. More infectious than ever.

Yes, big increases happening now even with a country around 60% vaccinated

"Latest official figures showed a further 16,135 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases recorded in the UK on Wednesday — the highest since 6 February, and an almost 40 per cent increase in just 24 hours."

Yeah, but digging deeper it appears that the infections are happening mostly in the young ( under 35), which will have low full vaccination rates, or have only recently be vaccinated and have not developed full resistance.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19/latestinsights#infections

ezbee

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#2734093 25-Jun-2021 09:21

The UK headline numbers are the percentage of Adults vaccinated.
So its not 60% of population , but closer to 47.8 of total population with 2 doses.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/28/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

In the vaccinated age group numbers are skewed to older end, so proportion of unvaccinated younger adults is higher.
They may also be more mobile and taking more advantage of restriction relaxation even overseas travel ?

So as you relax restrictions you still have big groups to keep infection rate going.

Scotland report here.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext

""
In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities.
""

sbiddle

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#2734118 25-Jun-2021 10:02

You also have to remember that many in the UK have had AZ with it's 12 week period between doses. We know that protection against Delta is not that great after a single dose which is really the crux of the problem right now.

That's why the UK is dropping the 12 week period to 8 to ensure that they can now give as many people as possible their 2nd dose before their new opening date in the middle of July.

It's safe to say that Delta is spreading like wildfire in those who have decided not to be vaccinated, both in the UK and now in the US.

vexxxboy

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#2734131 25-Jun-2021 10:24

ezbee:

The UK headline numbers are the percentage of Adults vaccinated.
So its not 60% of population , but closer to 47.8 of total population with 2 doses.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/28/covid-uk-coronavirus-cases-deaths-and-vaccinations-today

In the vaccinated age group numbers are skewed to older end, so proportion of unvaccinated younger adults is higher.
They may also be more mobile and taking more advantage of restriction relaxation even overseas travel ?

So as you relax restrictions you still have big groups to keep infection rate going.

Scotland report here.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01358-1/fulltext

""
In summary, we show that the Delta VOC in Scotland was found mainly in younger, more affluent groups. Risk of COVID-19 hospital admission was approximately doubled in those with the Delta VOC when compared to the Alpha VOC, with risk of admission particularly increased in those with five or more relevant comorbidities.
""

but the Hospitals are not under strain which was the reason to have restrictions and lockdowns.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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Fred99

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#2734206 25-Jun-2021 11:04

vexxxboy:

but the Hospitals are not under strain which was the reason to have restrictions and lockdowns.

That's probably going to be seen retrospectively as a grave mistake. More should have been done.

Deaths and intensive care hospitalisation numbers make headlines, but as more is being uncovered about long-term sequalae from even mild infection, I'm even more thankful that we avoided the worst.

frankv

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#2734217 25-Jun-2021 11:32

Fred99:

vexxxboy:

but the Hospitals are not under strain which was the reason to have restrictions and lockdowns.

That's probably going to be seen retrospectively as a grave mistake. More should have been done.

Hmmm... this is in the realm of politics & economics. Is it better to cripple the economy to save a few lives? How many lives makes that justifiable? Does a lockdown actually cripple the economy anyway? If you cripple the economy, that'll also kill people because you won't be able to afford the latest hi-tech hospital gadget or safer roads or social welfare or whatever.

Given the CFR of <1% so long as you have ICU & hospital beds available vs 10% if you run out, I think it's obvious that you do whatever is needed to avoid running out of hospital beds. But it becomes more and more difficult to justify a severe lockdown when the risk is much lower. After all, in NZ we accept ~600 fatalities (and thousands of injuries, some of them permanent) a year on the roads. We could prevent most of that if we locked down. Likewise flu deaths.

tdgeek

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#2734218 25-Jun-2021 11:34

On Stuff

If the Delta variant was confirmed then restrictions may need to be scaled up as the rest of the country is at level 1, a health expert told Stuff.

University of Otago epidemiologist Dr Amanda Kvalsvig earlier said it was “very likely” New Zealand would need to scale up movement restrictions once Delta was confirmed.

Looks like the rest of us will end up in level 2 as well

DS248

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#2734219 25-Jun-2021 11:35

The K number. A relatively straightforward explanation. Relevant to the current Wellington situation.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/125553762/covid19-nz-why-some-people-spread-the-virus-and-others-dont

Fred99

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#2734223 25-Jun-2021 11:41

frankv:

Hmmm... this is in the realm of politics & economics. Is it better to cripple the economy to save a few lives?

You've quoted me out of context, ignoring my comment about the impact of long term sequalae on "public health" / quality of life implications for survivors.

wellygary

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#2734242 25-Jun-2021 12:16

tdgeek:

On Stuff

If the Delta variant was confirmed then restrictions may need to be scaled up as the rest of the country is at level 1, a health expert told Stuff.

University of Otago epidemiologist Dr Amanda Kvalsvig earlier said it was “very likely” New Zealand would need to scale up movement restrictions once Delta was confirmed.

Looks like the rest of us will end up in level 2 as well

I think that is a misquote, its pretty clear that the Sydney case is Delta, - via an epidemiological link... and the level 2 restrictions Wellington were based on that assumption...

The only reason the rest of the country would move to 2 is if a local case is confirmed and Wellington moved up to 3...

(just like when Auckland went to 3 and the rest of the country went to 2

tdgeek

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#2734244 25-Jun-2021 12:23

Yeah I get that, I read it as they know it will be delta but they need the official proof

Edit

The amount of regional travel since is also relevant?

tehgerbil

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#2734263 25-Jun-2021 13:13

tdgeek:

Yeah I get that, I read it as they know it will be delta but they need the official proof

Edit

The amount of regional travel since is also relevant?

Just heard from Bloomfield they're still waiting to hear from the useless Aussies if it was the Delta strain. Honestly, how the hell is taking days to get a genomic sequence back when we've had them reported within 24 hours previously.

An entire country is waiting for this info, you'd like to think it's a priority...

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