I better go to newsviastevebiddle.com than stuff.co.nz from now on. :-)

sbiddle:

 

Wow massive announcements out of Australia happening right now in a press conference by ScoMo - basically accepting in principle that Covid can't be eliminated and they we'll have to live with it much along the lines of what Singapore have announced. That's something they will be transitioning too.

 

Should hopefully be summaries hitting the media soon, and it will be interesting to see what impact this could have on the bubble this year.

 

 

 

Umm ... that's telling us something we already know. We've known that since the pandemic began. At least that was what I thought would happen. When we had the pandemic we had 2 choices

- let everyone get infected and achieve some form of herd immunity, then carry on

- vaccinate everyone and achieve some form on herd immunity, then carry on

- most countries in the world have been doing a hybrid of the two since day 1

I didn't see any other option.

The only question that remains is when is the point where you open up and carry on.

sbiddle:

 

Wow massive announcements out of Australia happening right now in a press conference by ScoMo - basically accepting in principle that Covid can't be eliminated and they we'll have to live with it much along the lines of what Singapore have announced. That's something they will be transitioning too.

 

Should hopefully be summaries hitting the media soon, and it will be interesting to see what impact this could have on the bubble this year.

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/federal/australia-to-slash-traveller-intake-pm-announces-pathway-out-of-covid-19-20210702-p5869s.html

Here a summary of what Scott Morrison announced here according to the ABC Australia:

• National Cabinet has agreed to halve the number of people allowed into Australia each week and to set up vaccination targets. 
  By July 14, international arrivals will be capped at 3,035 people a week, down from 6,370. Commercial flight numbers will be cut, but Mr Morrison said the Commonwealth, in response to this, would increase the number of repatriation flights.
• He also announced the federal government would conduct a trial of a shorter seven-day quarantine period with a small number of vaccinated travellers,
  instead of 14 days. Mr Morrison said South Australia had flagged its willingness to work with the government on the trial.
• As for vaccination targets, the Prime Minister said a percentage target would be decided once modelling showed how many people would need the jab for it to be effective against the spread of the Delta variant.
  He said everyone would be offered vaccination by the end of the year.
• The group of state and territory leaders did agree to a four-phase plan. We're in the first phase.
  Reaching the vaccine target in the second phase would mean international travel caps would be lifted for unvaccinated and vaccinated travellers. 
  Lockdowns in our current phase will only be used as a last resort.
• The third phase sees Australia dealing with COVID-19 like it does the seasonal flu and the fourth phase a return to pre-pandemic travel and life.
  Mr Morrison would not put a timeline on when he hoped Australia would reach that final phase.

Be interesting what the vaccinated 7 day quarantine trial means for us. They are talking about isolating at home with checks on those isolating.

Jacinda Arden has already stated our current plan is a phases opening to countries and we are also aiming for a 'end of the year' vaccination completion.
I believe she also said more work is being done now to what our long term opening up plan is.

Doesn't seem we are that far apart.

sbiddle:

 

Wow massive announcements out of Australia happening right now in a press conference by ScoMo - basically accepting in principle that Covid can't be eliminated and they we'll have to live with it much along the lines of what Singapore have announced. That's something they will be transitioning too.

 

Should hopefully be summaries hitting the media soon, and it will be interesting to see what impact this could have on the bubble this year.

 

 

 

They're "pathways" and subject to change based on circumstances and expert advice.  I don't like Morrison much, but if he's going to be subject to criticism for backtracking on opening up if that turns out to be needed, that would be very unreasonable (in the same way the moaning here about people being "stuck in Aus" because of bubble restrictions is unreasonable - it was made clear from the onset that's how it was going to be.)

Anyway, part of their "step one" is halving the number of overseas arrivals per week for the time being.  If Morrison's announcements are seen as commitment to "open up" in a hurry, they probably aren't.

Now we should do the same, not assume that our relative lack of the virus escaping from MIQ recently was because we're "better at it", because we possibly aren't.

A feel DOH moment coming on:

In NSW an unvaccinated student nurse who tested positive earlier this week has so far infected nine other health and aged-care workers, sending almost 400 close contacts into isolation.

Have our NZ nursing students been vaccinated ?? Because I was at my GP yesterday and a 3rd yr student nurse did my BP. (Though I am fully vaccinated).

KrazyKid:

 

Doesn't seem we are that far apart.

 

No i think overall we are on the same page.. but coordinating timing will be required if the bubble isn't going to pop... 

Once we get under way with mass vaccinations ( in about 3 weeks) it should start to become clearer what our progression is like...

As I've said before we have access to bulk pfizer about 3 months ahead of OZ, so potentially we could hit their vax targets before them, (which should mean the bubble could continue) 

It would be interesting to see if the new vaccination tracking platform will add support for this at some point: Google Developers Blog: Google updates Passes API to store COVID vaccination and testing information on Android devices (googleblog.com) 

FineWine:

 

A feel DOH moment coming on:

 

In NSW an unvaccinated student nurse who tested positive earlier this week has so far infected nine other health and aged-care workers, sending almost 400 close contacts into isolation.

 

Have our NZ nursing students been vaccinated ?? Because I was at my GP yesterday and a 3rd yr student nurse did my BP. (Though I am fully vaccinated).

 

I believe the answer to that is "yes - they should have been". That was identified as an issue by DHB and training institutions in the early stages of vaccine rollout.  Australia (or NSW) may have missed that vulnerability, or policing compliance with it. 

regarding vaccination

it seems everybody hits a wall at 60%

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

Batman:

 

regarding vaccination

 

it seems everybody hits a wall at 60%

 

https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

 

 

 

That's probably not valid data, unless the figure is based on % of population eligible for vaccine, countries with a young demographic are going to appear worse than they really are.  Then as eligibility changes as the vaccines are approved for use in younger people, the figure would need to be adjusted. 

Some states in the US have very poor rates despite plenty of available vaccine - unless something changes, they'll never get to 60%. 

I note that NZ ranks second to Hong Kong on The Economist’s “(return to) Normalcy” survey.

The survey is pointless and our ranking is meaningless; but those who gets excited by similar league tables may take comfort of some kind that our vaccine rollout is awesome.

This post lacks any critical assessment and therefore is of no value to the discourse.

Fred99:

 

Batman:

 

regarding vaccination
it seems everybody hits a wall at 60%
https://ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations

 

 

That's probably not valid data, unless the figure is based on % of population eligible for vaccine, countries with a young demographic are going to appear worse than they really are.  Then as eligibility changes as the vaccines are approved for use in younger people, the figure would need to be adjusted. 

 

Some states in the US have very poor rates despite plenty of available vaccine - unless something changes, they'll never get to 60%. 

 

Yeah, the denominator is the whole country population, and no one is looking to vaccinate anyone under 12 years yet ( most are still over 16)

Eg for Israel, officially they are ~60% fully vaccinated,  but the 0-14 population is around 28%  so they are 60% of some number slightly less than 72%  or more than 85% of eligible population..

Batman:

 

sbiddle:

 

Wow massive announcements out of Australia happening right now in a press conference by ScoMo - basically accepting in principle that Covid can't be eliminated and they we'll have to live with it much along the lines of what Singapore have announced. That's something they will be transitioning too.

 

Should hopefully be summaries hitting the media soon, and it will be interesting to see what impact this could have on the bubble this year.

 

 

 

 

Umm ... that's telling us something we already know. We've known that since the pandemic began. At least that was what I thought would happen. When we had the pandemic we had 2 choices

 

- let everyone get infected and achieve some form of herd immunity, then carry on

 

- vaccinate everyone and achieve some form on herd immunity, then carry on

 

- most countries in the world have been doing a hybrid of the two since day 1

 

I didn't see any other option.

 

The only question that remains is when is the point where you open up and carry on.

 

I think what was announced sounded very political, to try an appease people against the latest lockdowns. Especially as it was announced just after half of all Australians entered another lockdown. So I take it all with a massive grain of salt.

The problem is they appear to be doing this when they at  50% vaccination. IMO it needs to be a lot higher. They also seem to be promising no future lockdowns, unless the health system is under strain. I understand Australians health system has more capacity than NZs. I don't think NZ is on the same page, as I would think NZ would need the vaccinations to be more than 80%, or into the 90's to let Covid into the community. The problem is getting everyone to do it, as it could potentailly create reservoirs of the virus (eg if children don't get vaccinated)

If NZ had followed the rest of the world, they projected 10's of thousands of deaths. The economy overall hasn't been that affected in NZ due to eliminating it, so it hasn't been as badly affected as we were lead to believe it would be. It seems covid countries have been worse affected overall in terms of their economies and deaths. Disneyland was closed for over a year in the US and has only recently reopened. At least our tourism has been operating at about 50% from locals.

haven't looked at it in detail - if there's an issue i'm sure the medical community will generate pushback vs PM of Australia - watch this space