2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2745213 16-Jul-2021 15:10

Also the further Australia's problems get out of control (over 800 current cases) the more I fear an outbreak here. They are our closest land neighbour after all. Even with some states out of the bubble the risk is always there.

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Scott3

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#2745221 16-Jul-2021 15:50

JPNZ:

Sydney (and NSW) are paying the price for a weak "lite lockdown" and still it seems as there is FAR too much movement and people not taking it seriously. On the current trajectory they will need at least 4-6 weeks in proper lockdown to get that back to Zero.

The current Trajectory is basically a flat line. 21-34 infectious cases in the community for each of the last 6 days, and no clear trend up or down.

While it is good that it isn't spiraling out of control, if the goal is elimination, the current lock-down doesn't seem hard enough to achieve that goal.

If they are unwilling to properly lock down (cira NZ level 4), this could be an infinite lock down. Even if they do I feel it will need at least 6 more weeks. Case numbers are high enough that you can't count of finding every case, so just need to drag the r0 down with containment measures and let it burn out on it's own in area's where it is not detected.

JPNZ

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#2745223 16-Jul-2021 15:55

Scott3:

The current Trajectory is basically a flat line. 21-34 infectious cases in the community for each of the last 6 days, and no clear trend up or down.

While it is good that it isn't spiraling out of control, if the goal is elimination, the current lock-down doesn't seem hard enough to achieve that goal.

If they are unwilling to properly lock down (cira NZ level 4), this could be an infinite lock down. Even if they do I feel it will need at least 6 more weeks. Case numbers are high enough that you can't count of finding every case, so just need to drag the r0 down with containment measures and let it burn out on it's own in area's where it is not detected.

Agree.

The longer it goes on though the more push back you get and people not obeying the rules. They are in a terrible place currently

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Fred99

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#2745846 17-Jul-2021 16:11

111 new cases in Sydney, 29 infectious in the community, 52 "under investigation", 59 from a known source, one death.

Lockdown "lite" is over, restrictions in the main areas of concern seem to be pretty stringent - similar to our Level 4.

Vic has 20 new cases, all from a known source.

The fishing vessel "Playa Zahara" is anchored a few miles offshore from Lyttelton with 16/18 crew confirmed Delta variant cases. Was supposed to be docking in port today, most of the crew transferred to MIQ, but it hasn't happened yet. The Press is reporting that they're setting up perimeter fencing at the dock, and working on a safe plan to bring the ship into port.

While they keep referring to it as a "foreign vessel", they had arrangements for (quarantine-free) crew transfer in New Plymouth. Why is NZ allowing this risk during a pandemic if there's nothing in it for us?

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#2745852 17-Jul-2021 16:46

ezbee:
VIC's go harder gives them a good chance and they have teams that have experience and practice from last time.
They could be a bit miffed that NSWs go softly approach seeded their outbreak.

Victorian politicians at least are indeed a bit miffed:

The Victorian Premier's intervention this week painting Scott Morrison as "the Prime Minister for NSW" was powerful because it captured a mood in the state.
...
Victoria feels dudded

Victorians are collectively fatigued as they enter their fifth lockdown and there is a palpable sense of outrage that they were treated as the pariahs of the nation when everyone seemed to be living their best lives everywhere else in the country.

There's a pervasive feeling that Scott Morrison and his government neglected Victoria in its multiple hours of need.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-17/morrison-andrews-berejiklian-covid-war-of-words/100300854

Batman

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#2745857 17-Jul-2021 17:03

Scott3:
JPNZ:

Sydney (and NSW) are paying the price for a weak "lite lockdown" and still it seems as there is FAR too much movement and people not taking it seriously. On the current trajectory they will need at least 4-6 weeks in proper lockdown to get that back to Zero.

The current Trajectory is basically a flat line. 21-34 infectious cases in the community for each of the last 6 days, and no clear trend up or down.

While it is good that it isn't spiraling out of control, if the goal is elimination, the current lock-down doesn't seem hard enough to achieve that goal.

If they are unwilling to properly lock down (cira NZ level 4), this could be an infinite lock down. Even if they do I feel it will need at least 6 more weeks. Case numbers are high enough that you can't count of finding every case, so just need to drag the r0 down with containment measures and let it burn out on it's own in area's where it is not detected.

Iirc with less infectious strains of old, it took about 2 weeks of STRICT lockdown before cars dropped, and a bit more after that for the tail to disappear.

This is a more infectious strain so...

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#2745871 17-Jul-2021 17:57

covid in olympic village https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/tokyo-olympics-covid-case-found-at-athletes-olympic-village/ZV2ZC6QXWT3FHKP7YSHMDZOEKQ/

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msukiwi

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#2745877 17-Jul-2021 18:04

Batman:covid in olympic village https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/tokyo-olympics-covid-case-found-at-athletes-olympic-village/ZV2ZC6QXWT3FHKP7YSHMDZOEKQ/

And who is surprised by this? Anyone see anyone putting their hand up?

tdgeek

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#2745886 17-Jul-2021 18:29

msukiwi:

Batman:covid in olympic village https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/tokyo-olympics-covid-case-found-at-athletes-olympic-village/ZV2ZC6QXWT3FHKP7YSHMDZOEKQ/

And who is surprised by this? Anyone see anyone putting their hand up?

Its a farce. I Love the Olympics. Its the culmination of all countries in sport.

But this time its a farce. Many athletes aren't going as its wrong, so where is the sports united event of the best? Tokyo is in a state of emergency. Its not even on yet and they have infections. With vaccinations globally under way, why not delay it and have a real Olympics.

Tinkerisk

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#2745906 17-Jul-2021 18:57

tdgeek:

… why not delay it and have a real Olympics.

Because money pushes … I missed all EuroCup-Games and will miss the Olympics.

Watched disappointed drunken british fans (guests in Germany) in our street breaking the car radio antennas or bending wipers …

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#2745911 17-Jul-2021 19:09

i installed sky to watch the olympics ...

tdgeek

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#2745917 17-Jul-2021 19:26

Batman:

i installed sky to watch the olympics ...

I'll watch the golf. Maybe see if any Kiwis doing well.

tdgeek

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#2745918 17-Jul-2021 19:28

Watching Silverstone Formula 1 practice session. 140,000 spectators, haven't seen a mask yet. Silverstone track was about to go bust, but thanks to fans and authorities, they can have 140,000 on course

Scott3

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#2746054 17-Jul-2021 22:38

Batman:
Iirc with less infectious strains of old, it took about 2 weeks of STRICT lockdown before cars dropped, and a bit more after that for the tail to disappear.

This is a more infectious strain so...

I think the best case situation for NSW is:

1.5 - 2 weeks to see the impact of today's changes.

2 weeks for case numbers to decline to close to zero that arn't isolated.

2 weeks to let any people who are sick in the community but haven't been identified to get well.

Given the time they have spent in lockdown lite before today, it's going to be cira 2 months of lockdown, and that is if everything goes well in NZW

For Vic they havn't wasted time with a lockdown lite, so 6 weeks should do it. Because of overall case numbers they might be able to cut a week off the Just in case time...

Given the number of cases found today, in Vic, I think it would be good to retroactively put in place day 5 & 13 testing requirements for those that came in from that city in the last few day's. Could give us early notice of a leak, and perhaps a better chance at containing it with contact tracing and lower alert levels.

Regarding NZ, I think the authorities need to seriously consider how they can reduce risk of a major lock-down over the next 2-3 months while we ramp our vaccine program up hard. (cira 3 days to our first massive weekly shipment from our second order).

The cost economic and personal cost of a lockdown like vic is doing at the moment is huge, and if the virus is jumping state borders in Aussie, it is likely it would jump regions in NZ.

International fishing boats seem to pose excessive risk. Especially around their use of the ship crew transfer border exemption. I think they could be added to the entry ban list along with cruise ships and overseas flagged recreational yachts. (obviously the same emergency exemptions would still apply)

MiQ seems to have been going well to date, it has been a while since we have had a leak - just need to keep up the good work, and make sure systems are in place that there isn't room for complacency.

Aussie bubble seems to pose a heap of risk. I seriously think we should look at suspending this for a couple of months while NSW and Vic situations are resolved. Failing this some serious thought as to how we could reduce risk would seem prudent. For example:

Covid-19 test on arrival, and a day 7-10 covid-19 test.
Being quicker to pause states when community transmission is detected.
Additional measures to prevent state hopping.

Hopefully there is some groundwork being done on Vaccine passports.

Might be a little controversial, but given vaccine supply is not going to be an issue from Tuesday, I think we should be providing a means for those who are going to travel overseas to get vaccinated (perhaps with a cost attached to reduce abuse). Therefore reducing the risk of them carrying covid-19 back to NZ. Hopefully we could ask Australia to do the same.

Oblivian

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#2746055 17-Jul-2021 22:40

Scott3:

I think the best case situation for NSW is:

1.5 - 2 weeks to see the impact of today's changes.

2 weeks for case numbers to decline to close to zero that arn't isolated.

2 weeks to let any people who are sick in the community but haven't been identified to get well.

Given the time they have spent in lockdown lite before today, it's going to be cira 2 months of lockdown, and that is if everything goes well in NZW

One of the modelling says end of Sept to get back to manageable levels. So possibly not wrong.

The catch there, is many of our sources of fish. Use international crew on NZ registered ships using this method. :/

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