basically all of SEA apart from Singapore is having the same trend

Batman:

 

basically all of SEA apart from Singapore is having the same trend

 

You can exclude Philippines too. Case numbers are trending down at the moment.

Somehow they have managed to keep delta strain largely out of Manila (but there was a delta strain death their recently.)

Not sure if it makes a difference, but they have very strict PPE requirements. Mask and face shield required at the supermarket etc.

Scott3:

 

You can exclude Philippines too. Case numbers are trending down at the moment.

 

Somehow they have managed to keep delta strain largely out of Manila (but there was a delta strain death their recently.)

 

Not sure if it makes a difference, but they have very strict PPE requirements. Mask and face shield required at the supermarket etc.

 

It's probably practically impossible to prevent "delta" from becoming the dominant strain in any community where there's local transmission of assorted strains.  Raw CFR from the Philippines is about 3%, so they're probably missing 2/3 cases in the community (assuming IFR is about 1%).

This from the US CDC, the last bar is "estimated" and sequencing is not carried out on every case, but in about one month, delta has gone from about 10% of sequenced cases to almost 60%. (dark orange on the graph). It's just a matter of time before it's the same everywhere.  US 14 day average new cases are up 137%, deaths now trending up 27%.

As they don't sequence every case, then there's a possible bias - exaggerating delta prevalence - as it's certain that delta is more likely to cause severe disease, hospitalisation, and death, so I expect severe cases are more likely to be sequenced than milder cases (with other variants).  But it looks bad - especially in low % vaccination areas.

UK is about to conduct a huge experiment - some are calling it "freedom day", others have labelled it "freedumb day".

Scott3:

Batman:

basically all of SEA apart from Singapore is having the same trend

You can exclude Philippines too. Case numbers are trending down at the moment.

Somehow they have managed to keep delta strain largely out of Manila (but there was a delta strain death their recently.)

 

Not sure if it makes a difference, but they have very strict PPE requirements. Mask and face shield required at the supermarket etc.

Australia does at least one thing right:

Far-right British commentator Katie Hopkins will be deported after her visa was cancelled overnight.

 

Ms Hopkins had been brought to Australia by Channel 7 to join its reality television program Big Brother VIP, but was dropped from the program after boasting about the ways she was undermining the hotel's safety protocols, describing the lockdown as a "hoax".

 

I guess there will be a reaction from the "Cry Freedumb" lobby.  LOL.

98 new cases in Sydney. 20 "infectious in the community".

82 currently in hospital, 24 in ICU.

75,000 tests conducted over the 24 hour period.

What are they referring to when they say "infectious in the community"

Are they saying that even though there a lockdown limiting movement, these people were busy wandering around spreading the virus rather than being locked up inside? 

nzkiwiman:

 

What are they referring to when they say "infectious in the community"

 

Are they saying that even though there a lockdown limiting movement, these people were busy wandering around spreading the virus rather than being locked up inside? 

 

Thats how I see it, but it would also include those that are allowed to go to work, go shopping in the mall for essential whiteware, etc. Understandable are if they are non symptomatic.

But the issue has been, here is where you can go. In our lockdown it was everybody stay home, stay home, stay home. Essential stuff, is only this.

nzkiwiman:

 

What are they referring to when they say "infectious in the community"

 

Are they saying that even though there a lockdown limiting movement, these people were busy wandering around spreading the virus rather than being locked up inside? 

 

Basically it means they have been linked as contacts of existing cases, but they were not put into isolation before they subsequently tested positive..

So "in the community" means they are  still be able to move around as much as anyone else could in lockdown...

(until last week in NSW this was still quite a lot... JBHIFI, ripcurl, etc) 

The constantly repeated message is that they're not going to be able to ease lockdown until those "infectious in the community" cases are close to zero.

Just my opinion, but I don't think it's safe to ease until they've actually been at zero for quite a few days - "easing" too early is just going to mean going back into lockdown to correct what seems to be another serious error of judgement - like their reluctance to go into lockdown early enough, and then to think that the "lockdown lite" was going to work.

We'll have to do better here if/when we get our first delta CT cases.  

tdgeek:

 

nzkiwiman:

 

What are they referring to when they say "infectious in the community"

 

Are they saying that even though there a lockdown limiting movement, these people were busy wandering around spreading the virus rather than being locked up inside? 

 

 

Thats how I see it, but it would also include those that are allowed to go to work, go shopping in the mall for essential whiteware, etc. Understandable are if they are non symptomatic.

 

But the issue has been, here is where you can go. In our lockdown it was everybody stay home, stay home, stay home. Essential stuff, is only this.

 

Believe you can add to that, those who are linked to known contacts or points of interest that have not been self isolating.

They know the rest of the number is made up of household contacts or known positives. So this number obviously makes up the ones not doing the right thing caught as part of tracing. They have said it needs to be near 0 to have any chance of dropping transmission. So these are the raw 'spreaders'

OK, we are officially off to the races.... lets see what numbers we can crank out in the next few weeks, we can no longer blame supply if we screw this up...

“The shipment of more than 370,000 doses reached New Zealand yesterday,

“Fifteen sites received shipments from the newly arrived stock yesterday, while 104 will receive stocks of the vaccine today, a day earlier than planned.

https://www.beehive.govt.nz/release/early-pfizer-shipment-boosts-vaccine-schedule

what's the best way to register for the vaccine again?

website (please post link again) vs GP vs wait to be called?

is group 4 eligible yet?

Batman:

 

is group 4 eligible yet?

 

Last time I heard about our area  (CDHB), we can start booking a slot from 28 July.

Batman:

 

what's the best way to register for the vaccine again?

 

website (please post link again) vs GP vs wait to be called?

 

is group 4 eligible yet?

 

The official website ignores you unless you have a booking reference. (badly broken as it is meant to take your details for later)

DHB/healthline may bump you and get you a reference if you categorically fall into group 3 but didn't get the auto invite or notification that one would come (IE your details likely wrong and they don't use snailmail) but classify you during a call.

I've heard of younger folk with health issues push the fact and get one.

Down in the central 03 are wayyyy off the list so far. Likely mid Aug/Sept starting. Earliest I could get was Aug2 after being re-classified last week.