2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2747963 22-Jul-2021 08:27

tdgeek:

Clearly Delta is a far higher risk than Alpha, but dont use Australia as proof, they have always had issues with compliance

If you think NZers are any better, the news that at least 100 NZers returned from Aus without pre-flight testing suggests otherwise.
We're going to need strict enforcement - and I don't see that we're taking that seriously enough at the border now.

Aus has been far less tolerant of anti-lockdown protestors and other nutters than we have in NZ.

We may have had a better/faster response than NSW's stupid mistake, but much of the rest of the issues they face is just a numbers game. Sydney and Melbourne are massive cities compared to our largest population centre - which is only about the same size as Adelaide.

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#2747967 22-Jul-2021 08:36

Fred99:

If you think NZers are any better, the news that at least 100 NZers returned from Aus without pre-flight testing suggests otherwise.
We're going to need strict enforcement - and I don't see that we're taking that seriously enough at the border now.

Aus has been far less tolerant of anti-lockdown protestors and other nutters than we have in NZ.

We may have had a better/faster response than NSW's stupid mistake, but much of the rest of the issues they face is just a numbers game. Sydney and Melbourne are massive cities compared to our largest population centre - which is only about the same size as Adelaide.

You will always get idiots. AUS and NZ have idiots, but from day one, the number of flouting incidents over there was a daily read. From day one. When their latest of MANY lockdowns occurred recently there was a protest. Day one till now, little has changed. You could put that down to Covid weariness, but its been from day one. There is huge benefit from being more compliant and IMHO, we are

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#2747970 22-Jul-2021 08:43

JPNZ:

sbiddle:

Firstly that graph is now horribly outdated and wrong.

Secondly the point you raise is kinda valid, but shows the problem of listening to people such as Chris Hipkins rather than relying on actual published data and statistics. He has to ultimately take some blame for people misunderstanding data, in part because he didn't want to correct some misinformation and assumptions people had made because it would have painted a worse picture than they wanted.

Group 3 rollout started in late May and was always going to overlap with group 4. There had never been any plan to finish group 3 before group 4 started which is something many people incorrectly assumed, and despite that becoming the belief of many people nothing was ever done to correct it. Most of group 3 should have been able to get their first jab by around early-mid September looking at the official data and rollout.

While group 4 starts at the end of July the vast percentage of people in group 4 will not be vaccinated until the middle of September through to late October when mass vaccination centres are operational.

Why this isn't more widely known is still a mystery to me, because none of it is a secret. At stand-ups there have been plenty of opportunities to put the facts out there, but that would mean many people would actually realise their true vaccination dates are a lot later than they'd expected.

I think the crux of what your saying is, the government doesn't want to come out and say two truths:

"The vaccination program is running well behind schedule"

"We won't reach 80% vaccination target by December 2021"

Neither of those statements are what I said, and I don't agree with the first one either.

Our vaccine rollout is 100% on track and has been since the start based on our orders and vaccine deliveries. The problem is our rollout was always going to be a long and slow one because we were so late to order Pfizer. From the very first days when we were presented by a graph by the MoH and Hipkins that made no sense and was "indicative only" rather than being based on real data, we've faced a problem with the government being happy that people thought they were going to be vaccinated a lot sooner than they were, and they did very little to correct those beliefs.

Just look at the outrage when group 4 was "moved" back to the end of July even though it technically wasn't really moved at all. Many people in the general public in group 4 had the impression that some July they were all just going to rock up and immediately be vaccinated, which had never been the plan.

Once people's expectations became so different from the rollout schedules there should have been efforts taken to reset people's expectations, but nobody did that and the problem just became worse.

It's is however probably going to be impossible to have 80% of our population vaccinated by December 2021 because I'm not sure we'll ever get 80% of the total population vaccinated. Right now with no plans to vaccinate under 12's (and in recent days lots of discussion questioning whether this will actually happen anywhere in the world due to risks) at most we'll be able to vaccinate around 86% of our total population by the end of the year. To hit the 80% target would mean only 6% of NZers who choose not to be vaccinated, and I don't think there are many people out there who believe this figure could possibly be that low.

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#2747971 22-Jul-2021 08:49

JPNZ: What I can't understand is group 3 started vaccinations on the 1st May, we are 11 weeks and 5 days into it and about to start bookings for group 4 next week, yet only 10% (180,000) of the 1.7 million people in group 3 are fully vaccinated ...

Radio NZ - Concerns over 'rush' to vaccinate group 4 while coverage of vulnerable groups low

today

The government is pressing ahead with plans to vaccinate the general population against Covid-19 even though only 20 percent of those in the vulnerable group three have had their first dose.

By estimations only 12 percent of group 3 are fully vaccinated.

RNZ's analysis of vaccination data shows more than 2 million doses still need to be given to those over 65 or with underlying health conditions.

There is a dearth of good information relating to the vaccine rollout.

But by collating Ministry of Health data on the number of vaccines administered by each district health board to the various eligibility groups and obtaining group three estimates from each DHB, we now have a snapshot of the rollout's progress to date.

Next Wednesday the first cohort of group four - those aged 60 and over - will be invited to book their Covid-19 shots.

The government set the date back in March.

But some doctors fear it is too rushed with so many more vulnerable people still unvaccinated.

Based on DHB figures and population estimates only 12 percent of group 3, or about 180,000 people, are fully inoculated.

Only one in five had received their first dose. ...

I'm in Group 3 and have been waiting since "late May" to be vaccinated. Shifting goalposts. 😕

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#2747974 22-Jul-2021 08:53

Fred99:
tdgeek:

Clearly Delta is a far higher risk than Alpha, but dont use Australia as proof, they have always had issues with compliance

If you think NZers are any better, the news that at least 100 NZers returned from Aus without pre-flight testing suggests otherwise.
We're going to need strict enforcement - and I don't see that we're taking that seriously enough at the border now.

Aus has been far less tolerant of anti-lockdown protestors and other nutters than we have in NZ.

We may have had a better/faster response than NSW's stupid mistake, but much of the rest of the issues they face is just a numbers game. Sydney and Melbourne are massive cities compared to our largest population centre - which is only about the same size as Adelaide.

Yip. NZ has just as many morons as any other country.

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#2747975 22-Jul-2021 08:53

sbiddle:

To hit the 80% target would mean only 6% of NZers who choose not to be vaccinated, and I don't think there are many people out there who believe this figure could possibly be that low.

I read somewhere, two surveys were taken, and 75 to 77% said they will vaccinate, but that was just from eligibles. They calculated that its about 60%+ of the total population. Annecdotally, Ive talked to "normal" people, i.e. not anti-vaxxers and some aren't fussed on the vaccine. I feel the ones that wont vaccinate are certainly not just anti-vaxxers. General, normal people who don't follow Covid daily as we do, they read/here the vaccine problems, then decide

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#2747976 22-Jul-2021 08:55

Fred99:
sbiddle:

It's pretty clear capturing the last ~10% who are either vaccine hesitant or anti vaxxers is going to be incredibly difficult.

There's also a reasonably significant number of people who are immunocompromised and for whom the vaccines won't work - or won't work very well, many of whom would also have poor outcomes if they did get infected. These same people are already at risk from flu etc, but obviously C-19 is much worse.

The anti-vaxxers who'll be a pool of ongoing infection risk need to be minimised, otherwise we'll be waiting years before enough of them have been infected and either died or gained enough herd immunity to keep numbers down - if that's even going to be possible

There are already mab treatments - but they need to be administered at onset of symptoms and they're expensive. Maybe anti-vaxxers should be denied public funded access to those treatments, as they not only increase risk thus probable demand for treatments themselves, but their behaviour increases risk to those who really need the treatments and have no choice.

To make a fair chunk of them comply will require measures like vaccine passports to attend bars and sporting or religious events. I doubt any politician has the spine to go that far.

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JPNZ

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#2747978 22-Jul-2021 08:56

sbiddle:

JPNZ:

I think the crux of what your saying is, the government doesn't want to come out and say two truths:

"The vaccination program is running well behind schedule"

"We won't reach 80% vaccination target by December 2021"

Neither of those statements are what I said, and I don't agree with the first one either.

I realise you never said them but you will be one of very few people on this thread that doesn't believe them.

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#2747979 22-Jul-2021 08:57

Sideface:

I'm in Group 3 and have been waiting since "late May" to be vaccinated. Shifting goalposts. 😕

Nothing has shifted though.

The group 3 rollout was always planned to take ~3 months from commencement before everybody had their first jab. This was even discussed at the time during stand-ups.

The problem is one of expectations - and like many others you expected things to happen quicker, and despite that becoming the expectation of many of the public, nobody did anything to correct your expectations and align them with the reality of the rollout.

You will get your first jab by at the latest by late August or early September as has always been the plan.

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#2747981 22-Jul-2021 09:00

JPNZ:

I realise you never said them but you will be one of very few people on this thread that doesn't believe them.

Our vaccine rollout is a shambles, but it's running pretty much 100% to the long term plans released in April. We can't change decisions made by the government and MoH around vaccine decisions and timeframes.

GV27

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#2747984 22-Jul-2021 09:07

sbiddle:

Our vaccine rollout is a shambles, but it's running pretty much 100% to the long term plans released in April. We can't change decisions made by the government and MoH around vaccine decisions and timeframes.

Apart from some sly changes of what can be reasonably inferred to mean something is happening 'in July' over the last month or two, but they did indicate that July is when the big shipments would start showing up.

Now the race is on to get them into people before Delta gets here. Which it will.

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#2747985 22-Jul-2021 09:08

tdgeek:

sbiddle:

To hit the 80% target would mean only 6% of NZers who choose not to be vaccinated, and I don't think there are many people out there who believe this figure could possibly be that low.

I read somewhere, two surveys were taken, and 75 to 77% said they will vaccinate, but that was just from eligibles. They calculated that its about 60%+ of the total population. Annecdotally, Ive talked to "normal" people, i.e. not anti-vaxxers and some aren't fussed on the vaccine. I feel the ones that wont vaccinate are certainly not just anti-vaxxers. General, normal people who don't follow Covid daily as we do, they read/here the vaccine problems, then decide

Yip.. Realistically we might get to somewhere in the vicinity of 70-75% of the total population vaccinated by the end of the year.

Obviously if those under 12 are vaccinated that figure will change, but right now even if that does happen it may only be very limited numbers of 6-11yr olds such as those who are at high risk.

Just look at the UK where they're struggling to move beyond the 86-89% of the 16+ adult population vaccinated. That last 10% is the real dilemma.

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#2747989 22-Jul-2021 09:20

GV27:

Apart from some sly changes of what can be reasonably inferred to mean something is happening 'in July' over the last month or two, but they did indicate that July is when the big shipments would start showing up.

Now the race is on to get them into people before Delta gets here. Which it will.

100%. I have a couple of outdoor projects to do, no rush. But I picked up the timber yesterday, as Delta will hit here at any time. Surprised it isnt already given that MIQ can never be secure and the bubbles. Then it will be instant Level 4

Buster

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Ultimate Geek

#2747997 22-Jul-2021 09:49

With the vaccination rollout we also need to remember that for all those that end up not getting the jab (for whatever reason), it actually speeds up the whole process for those that do, so the program will be completed sooner using less resources.

GV27

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#2748022 22-Jul-2021 10:08

tdgeek:

100%. I have a couple of outdoor projects to do, no rush. But I picked up the timber yesterday, as Delta will hit here at any time. Surprised it isnt already given that MIQ can never be secure and the bubbles. Then it will be instant Level 4

I'm in a race against time to get all my computer issues sorted and stockpiles for family stuff (emergency provisions and things like nappies etc).

No one can be sure if it will happen but there is a worsening sense of impending dread as things unfold in Aus.

But at least we will know about it fairly quickly with waste-water testing.

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