2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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3970 posts

Uber Geek

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#2437888 14-Mar-2020 11:52

NPCtom:

I sure hope not. Flying to the US for a week on Thursday.

How essential is your travel? Are you in an at risk group?

Number of total confirmed COVID 19 cases by date compared between USA and Italy 11 days prior.

The chart is two days old, but it is Friday the 13th in the USA and confirmed cases are 2,030 now:

NY times link

There is widespread concern of massive under-testing in the USA, a state of emergency has been declared.

As others have said, the USA is unlikely to travel ban us in the next week, and assuming you have a NZ passport, you will be let back into NZ. You may have to do self isolation on your return.

If NZ issues a travel warning against the USA this weekend it may impact your insurance. Possibly a bunch of flight cancellations will be announced if NZ puts in place travel restrictions from the USA this weekend, but there probiably will be enough flights to get you home in under two weeks time.

If you are in an at risk group or don't have a NZ passport, I would not be leaving the country at the moment.

kingdragonfly

11199 posts

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#2437889 14-Mar-2020 11:52

You can skip to 1:10. There's no audience, except the staff.

Trump Addresses the Nation on the Coronavirus Pandemic

Late Night with Seth Meyers: A Closer Look

Seth takes a closer look at President Trump’s address to the nation and the administration’s failed response to the coronavirus pandemic.

sqishy

470 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2437890 14-Mar-2020 11:55

Hi @Scott3, where is that graph?

tdgeek

29749 posts

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#2437891 14-Mar-2020 11:57

Scott3:

If you are in an at risk group or don't have a NZ passport, I would not be leaving the country at the moment.

IMO anyone travelling to the US is playing with fire. It's not Lotto odds.

NPCtom

430 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2437893 14-Mar-2020 12:10

Scott3:

NPCtom:

I sure hope not. Flying to the US for a week on Thursday.

How essential is your travel? Are you in an at risk group?

The chart is two days old, but it is Friday the 13th in the USA and confirmed cases are 2,030 now:

NY times link

There is widespread concern of massive under-testing in the USA, a state of emergency has been declared.

As others have said, the USA is unlikely to travel ban us in the next week, and assuming you have a NZ passport, you will be let back into NZ. You may have to do self isolation on your return.

If NZ issues a travel warning against the USA this weekend it may impact your insurance. Possibly a bunch of flight cancellations will be announced if NZ puts in place travel restrictions from the USA this weekend, but there probiably will be enough flights to get you home in under two weeks time.

If you are in an at risk group or don't have a NZ passport, I would not be leaving the country at the moment.

Not essential at all anymore. I. was planning to attend a tech event that has since been cancelled and have been planning this trip since February. I am only visiting San Francisco and Los Angeles.

What groups are there? I may have misunderstood your chart.

kingdragonfly

11199 posts

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#2437896 14-Mar-2020 12:24

The Late Show with Stephen Colbert aired Thursday night’s show without a studio audience.

The Tonight Show Starring Jimmy Kimmel has canceled shows until March 30.

Late Night with Seth Meyers canceled Thursday night’s show, instead releasing a version of “A Closer Look” from rehearsal.

Real Time with Bill Maher aired Friday without a studio audience.

A first time visitor to Real Time with Bill Maher started things off. Risk perception psychology expert David Ropeik is the top-of-show interview guest.

Ropeik is an author and has also trained journalists on how the media can best cover risk. He should discuss the media coverage of COVID-19 with Bill Maher. On Twitter, Ropeik has commented on coverage that has only exacerbated the public concern and fear over novel coronavirus. He should give some context on the psychology behind the collective fear over the pandemic.

@dropeik

Dear President #Trump
@realDonaldTrump

You say your advisors are working on having you tested. But you haven't yet, though you were exposed by two possible paths days ago. It didn't take NBA players that long. W.T.F.!!!???

Scott3

3970 posts

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#2437900 14-Mar-2020 12:37

sqishy:

Hi @Scott3, where is that graph?

It is from reddit. Displays fine on my computer.

https://www.reddit.com/r/dataisbeautiful/comments/fhykic/oc_this_chart_comparing_infection_rates_between/

NPCtom:

Not essential at all anymore. I. was planning to attend a tech event that has since been cancelled and have been planning this trip since February. I am only visiting San Francisco and Los Angeles.

What groups are there? I may have misunderstood your chart.

With hindsight, the graph is hard to understand without a title (which I have added to the post).

It shows the number of confirmed COVID 19 cases in the USA is almost exactly tracking the number in Italy 11 days prior. Obviously extrapolating data has it's limitations, but if this trend continues, the situation in the USA is going to become very bad in under two weeks.

In short, travel to the USA is very risky at the moment, and there is a good chance that travel from the USA to NZ will be restricted this weekend...

Risk groups are those that are older, male, and have pre-existing medical conditions:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/

My wife follows a bunch of USA people on social media, and empty supermarket shelves featured lot last night.

Quic Broadband

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Scott3

3970 posts

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#2437901 14-Mar-2020 12:47

Paul Young is a well respected ICU doctor, and clinical researcher based in wellington

https://www.mrinz.ac.nz/staff/dr-paul-young/

https://twitter.com/DogICUma/status/1238315726991020032

Batman

Mad Scientist
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#2437902 14-Mar-2020 12:49

He can tweet, but will Jacinda listen?

Scott3

3970 posts

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#2437905 14-Mar-2020 12:57

Batman: He can tweet, but will Jacinda listen?

Hopefully she has direct communication with experts, rather then relying on twitter. Also hopefully the decision is delegated to an expert, rather tan being made by Jacinda who must be extremely busy.

The statement made on Friday said we are getting dramatically greater travel restrictions, but the impact of those restrictions is going to be so big they needed the weekend to sort out details (such as airfreight of medication) prior to announcement. Personally I would be happy to announce ASAP, and sort the details later.

The big thing that I think is now important is that there is unlikely to be political fallout from harsh travel restrictions. the public is onside with this, and the opposition is criticizing the government for being too slow and not harsh enough.

Rikkitic

Awrrr
18663 posts

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#2437915 14-Mar-2020 13:01

My step-daughter who lives in Sydney is arriving for a 1-week visit on Tuesday. Her plane lands in Auckland. She booked the flight before the virus hit the news. I have been more-or-less following developments, but not closely. The information I do see seems confused and contradictory. For example, I just saw something about Australians being advised to avoid non-essential travel overseas.

Should my step-daughter cancel her trip? Her mother is stroke-damaged and lives in a nursing home here full of other weakened elderly people. We are also elderly and I have a lung condition, though we are otherwise healthy. She has a NZ passport but would she be forced into quarantine on arrival? Will she be able to return to her home in Australia in a week? Where does one find out this kind of information?

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek

#2437917 14-Mar-2020 13:07

And now there are six cases confirmed in NZ. No details yet.

mattwnz

20164 posts

Uber Geek

#2437918 14-Mar-2020 13:08

6th case just announced. Yes should have investigated closing our borders weeks ago and worked out who to continue to get air freight delivered. At least we part own an airline so they can help with this. We still have the chance to stamp it out here but if we aren't at least banning people from countries like UK and the US who's rates are going exponential , it is going to leak in the gates at the airport.

GV27

5897 posts

Uber Geek

#2437920 14-Mar-2020 13:11

Mosque memorial services cancelled. Strange they held onto doing this for so long.

Mahon

473 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2437921 14-Mar-2020 13:15

Rikkitic:

My step-daughter who lives in Sydney is arriving for a 1-week visit on Tuesday. Her plane lands in Auckland. She booked the flight before the virus hit the news. I have been more-or-less following developments, but not closely. The information I do see seems confused and contradictory. For example, I just saw something about Australians being advised to avoid non-essential travel overseas.

Should my step-daughter cancel her trip? Her mother is stroke-damaged and lives in a nursing home here full of other weakened elderly people. We are also elderly and I have a lung condition, though we are otherwise healthy. She has a NZ passport but would she be forced into quarantine on arrival? Will she be able to return to her home in Australia in a week? Where does one find out this kind of information?

I believe that you really know the answer to this question.

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