2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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5897 posts

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#2749925 26-Jul-2021 13:58

All Covid-19 test results processed in New Plymouth so far have come back negative and more results are expected later Monday.

A total of 160 swabs were taken in New Plymouth yesterday, the Ministry of Health said in a statement on Monday.

‘’Around a quarter of these have been processed and returned negative results. There remain a number of results that are pending from swabs taken yesterday that are expected later today.’’

And a preliminary result, from an early wastewater sample taken for around two thirds of the usual 24-hour sampling time, has come back with no further Coivd-19 detected, the Ministry said.

Bullet dodged, maybe?

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/125861286/no-community-cases-of-covid19-in-taranaki-or-miq

Batman

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#2749926 26-Jul-2021 14:00

young ppl in ICU in UK

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jul/25/seriously-ill-young-people-in-current-covid-admissions-expert-warns

JPNZ

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#2749927 26-Jul-2021 14:01

Fred99:

NSW recorded 145 new locally acquired COVID-19 cases in the 24 hours to 8:00pm yesterday.

Fifty-one of the cases were in the community while infectious.

Another 25 cases were in the community for part of their infectious period while the isolation status of 11 cases are still under investigation.

There are 156 COVID-19 patient being treated in hospital, with 44 people in intensive care, 18 of whom are on ventilators.

And the NSW premier is talking about "easing restrictions" this Saturday. They are having higher case numbers now then when they went into harder restrictions on 18th July.

Reports NSW treasury has been doing economic modelling on lockdown in NSW till 17th September (which would make more sense IMHO)

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mattwnz

20157 posts

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#2749944 26-Jul-2021 14:13

GV27:

All Covid-19 test results processed in New Plymouth so far have come back negative and more results are expected later Monday.

A total of 160 swabs were taken in New Plymouth yesterday, the Ministry of Health said in a statement on Monday.

160 is tiny. There must be more people than that with colds etc?

GV27

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#2749945 26-Jul-2021 14:16

Will be a bit shit if it pops up somewhere else and only isn't registering in Taranaki because school holidays are over.

wellygary

8323 posts

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#2749946 26-Jul-2021 14:16

mattwnz:

GV27:

All Covid-19 test results processed in New Plymouth so far have come back negative and more results are expected later Monday.

A total of 160 swabs were taken in New Plymouth yesterday, the Ministry of Health said in a statement on Monday.

160 is tiny. There must be more people than that with colds etc?

Its worse than that , its only based on ~40 results coming back.....

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/no-community-cases-3-historical-cases-covid-19-managed-isolation-taranaki-wastewater-update

"A total of 160 swabs were taken in New Plymouth yesterday. Around a quarter of these have been processed and returned negative results."

alasta

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#2749947 26-Jul-2021 14:21

Where transmission has occurred in supermarkets in Sydney it would be interesting to know whether masks were worn.

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tdgeek

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#2749948 26-Jul-2021 14:22

Scott3:

For "Any vaccinated people" to come to NZ, we won't be able to have enough MIQ space to do managed isolation, so will need to have isolation free arrivals for vaccinated travelers.

Vaccines range in effectiveness between cira 55% and cira 95% depending on brand / virus strain etc. That's nothing like the effectiveness of MIQ at keeping covid-19 out. So you are essentially accepting releasing covid-19 in the community, and accepting it will be endemic.

Realisticlly we can't get herd immunity against delta with current vaccines. So we either run with this, or wait for delta specific boosters.

The costs of having endemic widespread covid-19 in NZ will need to be weighted again the benefits of reopening travel by people smarter than me. But very important any re-opening is done in spring / summer.

Why would vaccinated people arriving in NZ have to go to MIQ? That would I guess mean that vaccinated Kiwis travelling to say Bali, will need to MIQ there for two weeks and MIQ here 2 weeks. Thats what we essentially have now

If any country "opens up" in say 2022 as is often mentioned, surely thats based on an endemic situation. If it was based on elimination then that means NZ will be locked borders until Covid is gone? that's 5 years?

Im not suggesting either way, just making a point. Its gone too far to not be an endemic virus. If we dont want that, then we stay closed borders as we are now, including all bubbles. Then we wait for boosters, but even then its still s risk. One day Covid is dying out. Do we wait till then? Thats a long way off. Years. The Delta evolves and we rinse and repeat?

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2749953 26-Jul-2021 14:35

GV27:

And a preliminary result, from an early wastewater sample taken for around two thirds of the usual 24-hour sampling time, has come back with no further Coivd-19 detected, the Ministry said.

Stuff editorialised / abbreviated that message:

A preliminary result, from an early wastewater sample taken for around two thirds of the usual 24 hour sampling time, has come back with no further COVID-19 detected. Results from wastewater samples taken over a wider area in Taranaki are expected tomorrow.

There's some interesting information / FAQ on wastewater testing on ESR's site. Clarifies the reasoning behind the "two-thirds" comment.

https://www.esr.cri.nz/our-expertise/covid-19-response/other-covid-19-work/wastewater-faqs/

DS248

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#2749954 26-Jul-2021 14:36

Conflicting Israeli and UK data on vaccine’s potency against Delta strain.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-uk-data-offer-mixed-signals-on-vaccines-potency-against-delta-strain/

"Israeli research claims Pfizer shot now only 41% effective against symptomatic COVID, while British stats have it at 88%.

...

The Israeli statistics also appeared to paint a picture of protection that gets weaker as months pass after vaccination, due to fading immunity. People vaccinated in January were said to have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April, effectiveness was at 75%."

But still seen as effective against severe illness (~91%), though not clear that it remains so high following the spike in serious illness case over the last two weeks.

Also (partially duplicates above info):

https://www.timesofisrael.com/hmo-those-who-inoculated-early-twice-as-likely-to-catch-covid-as-later-adopters/

https://www.timesofisrael.com/serious-covid-cases-in-israel-top-100-for-first-time-in-3-months/

Oblivian

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#2749956 26-Jul-2021 14:42

alasta:
Where transmission has occurred in supermarkets in Sydney it would be interesting to know whether masks were worn.

Yes. One of the Early cases were quickly found via scan/cctv that 2 were at the same supermarket. Masked (even qld you cant go to a mall without one) but never interacted

Scott3

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#2749968 26-Jul-2021 15:05

tdgeek:

Why would vaccinated people arriving in NZ have to go to MIQ? That would I guess mean that vaccinated Kiwis travelling to say Bali, will need to MIQ there for two weeks and MIQ here 2 weeks. Thats what we essentially have now

If any country "opens up" in say 2022 as is often mentioned, surely thats based on an endemic situation. If it was based on elimination then that means NZ will be locked borders until Covid is gone? that's 5 years?

Im not suggesting either way, just making a point. Its gone too far to not be an endemic virus. If we dont want that, then we stay closed borders as we are now, including all bubbles. Then we wait for boosters, but even then its still s risk. One day Covid is dying out. Do we wait till then? Thats a long way off. Years. The Delta evolves and we rinse and repeat?

Yip, any substantial relaxing of current border restrictions (i.e. MIQ free entry for vaccinated travelers from low risk countries) will mean essentially accepting endemic covid-19 in NZ.

This is a huge deal in my book. Hospitals are currently struggling with RSV, so this may require a year or so of perpetual level 1.5 or 2 and the associated economic cost to avoid crushing the hospital system...

I don't think there is enough information (or even an urgent need) to make any decision before November. Essentially the decision is going to be if to wait for boosters or not.

It is possible that NZ will have a decent outbreak later in the year, which may change the decision a little. From stay shut vs open up, to Stay shut and a 4 week say level 3 lockdown, or open up...

tdgeek

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#2749973 26-Jul-2021 15:14

Scott3:

Yip, any substantial relaxing of current border restrictions (i.e. MIQ free entry for vaccinated travelers from low risk countries) will mean essentially accepting endemic covid-19 in NZ.

This is a huge deal in my book. Hospitals are currently struggling with RSV, so this may require a year or so of perpetual level 1.5 or 2 and the associated economic cost to avoid crushing the hospital system...

I don't think there is enough information (or even an urgent need) to make any decision before November. Essentially the decision is going to be if to wait for boosters or not.

It is possible that NZ will have a decent outbreak later in the year, which may change the decision a little. From stay shut vs open up, to Stay shut and a 4 week say level 3 lockdown, or open up...

A timetable that's well off the table right now. Get us all vaccinated then look at it. By then the vaccine vs Delta will be well known. I saw someone the other day writing about a NZ only economy. We export, we import, but a closed border. Travel/business is pay for MIQ. Basically ending international tourism.

frankv

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#2750012 26-Jul-2021 16:12

DS248:

Conflicting Israeli and UK data on vaccine’s potency against Delta strain.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/israeli-uk-data-offer-mixed-signals-on-vaccines-potency-against-delta-strain/

"Israeli research claims Pfizer shot now only 41% effective against symptomatic COVID, while British stats have it at 88%.

...

The Israeli statistics also appeared to paint a picture of protection that gets weaker as months pass after vaccination, due to fading immunity. People vaccinated in January were said to have just 16% protection against infection now, while in those vaccinated in April, effectiveness was at 75%."

But still seen as effective against severe illness (~91%), though not clear that it remains so high following the spike in serious illness case over the last two weeks.

Not necessarily conflicting. Israel has been vaccinating for months longer than UK, so you would expect that they would be finding a lower average efficacy across the whole population.

Benoire

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#2750014 26-Jul-2021 16:20

tdgeek:

A timetable that's well off the table right now. Get us all vaccinated then look at it. By then the vaccine vs Delta will be well known. I saw someone the other day writing about a NZ only economy. We export, we import, but a closed border. Travel/business is pay for MIQ. Basically ending international tourism.

You can't yet vaccinate kids below 16. Do we know what the impact will be on them yet? I've got an 8y and a 5y old and you know what kids are like at school, can't social distance! Any opening up of NZ without effective controls for kids is effectively turning a blind eye to their health to a certain extent given we do not know the long term impact of a covid infection on the body (long covid etc.).

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