2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2750674 27-Jul-2021 13:25

NSW has a problem, and they don't seem to know what to do....

NSW records 172 new COVID-19 cases, 60 in community while infectious

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-27/nsw-records-172-new-covid19-cases/100325680

JPNZ

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#2750676 27-Jul-2021 13:27

Record day for Sydney..

"NSW has reported 172 new local coronavirus cases on Tuesday, its highest daily case total since the start of Sydney’s current outbreak.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the two deaths reported yesterday were people who acquired the virus as a household contact and were unvaccinated.

Eighty-five of the new cases were linked to known cases or clusters. There were more than 84,000 tests processed during the reporting period.

Seventy-nine of the cases were in the community for all or part of their infectious period"

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tdgeek

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#2750681 27-Jul-2021 13:40

JPNZ:

Record day for Sydney..

"NSW has reported 172 new local coronavirus cases on Tuesday, its highest daily case total since the start of Sydney’s current outbreak.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian said the two deaths reported yesterday were people who acquired the virus as a household contact and were unvaccinated.

Eighty-five of the new cases were linked to known cases or clusters. There were more than 84,000 tests processed during the reporting period.

Seventy-nine of the cases were in the community for all or part of their infectious period"

Must be frustrating when you are probably doing everything you can, yet during the speech you read out why. Seventy-nine of the cases were in the community for all or part of their infectious period

The people aren't cooperating

JPNZ

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#2750684 27-Jul-2021 13:46

tdgeek:

Must be frustrating when you are probably doing everything you can, yet during the speech you read out why. Seventy-nine of the cases were in the community for all or part of their infectious period

The people aren't cooperating

Indeed, that figure has been climbing for weeks. "infectious in the community" honestly WTH are people in Sydney doing? I remember level 4 here in NZ "Stay home save lives" you hardly saw people leave their houses and when it was it was only to groceries or a walk/cycle/exercise.

Whats the next step? Lockdown even harder (not sure what else they can do) or speed up vaccinations greatly. Either way they are not going to be out of lockdown for months (October onwards IMO) The very real threat is that this is already out of control and it could get MUCH MUCH worse for NSW. People in Hospital and ICU beds are increasing quickly

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#2750685 27-Jul-2021 13:51

wellygary:

NSW has a problem, and they don't seem to know what to do....

NSW records 172 new COVID-19 cases, 60 in community while infectious

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-27/nsw-records-172-new-covid19-cases/100325680

the the other state borders shut to NSW? if not they have a problem

duckDecoy

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#2750686 27-Jul-2021 13:51

nzkiwiman:

Front page of the ODT this morning was a sob story about not being able to get out of NSW

https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/north-otago/no-way-out-nsw-no-answers

Her mother was dying. This does seem like a legitimate reason to travel to OZ in my opinion. I feel quite sorry for her.

tdgeek

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#2750687 27-Jul-2021 13:58

duckDecoy:

nzkiwiman:

Front page of the ODT this morning was a sob story about not being able to get out of NSW

https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/north-otago/no-way-out-nsw-no-answers

Her mother was dying. This does seem like a legitimate reason to travel to OZ in my opinion. I feel quite sorry for her.

It is for sure. But the risk is no different no matter what the circumstances are, it was a known risk

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Scott3

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#2750689 27-Jul-2021 14:02

nzkiwiman:

Front page of the ODT this morning was a sob story about not being able to get out of NSW

https://www.odt.co.nz/regions/north-otago/no-way-out-nsw-no-answers

There is some communication issues here. Government has said that where there are capacity issues getting people home they will extend the "get home in 1 week period"

It is a fair bet that this applies to NSW and that the government will allowing airlines to run flights back with attached MIQ rooms whenever the cira 500 - 1000 MIQ rooms they have allocated to NSW come vacant.

But the messaging, that you need to get back in a week or you will be stuck for at least 2 months (or fight it out game of fastest finger for General MIQ rooms) seems to be worrying those in NSW.

Obviously demand is an issue. I suspect this is made worse by the actual criteria being made a lot broader than the "those normally resident in NZ" that was said in the press conference. Any NZ passport holder, and any aussie that has taken a holiday here are eligible. If I was a cashed up aussie in Sydney at the moment (and I had already taken one bubble holiday to NZ), a two week hotel stay on the NZ taxpayer then day a month in queens-town would be looking mighty tempting.

Scott3

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#2750690 27-Jul-2021 14:05

sbiddle:

It's worth noting that in general, for many existing (non Covid) vaccines that longer gaps between vaccine doses is always better. There are many vaccines out there given with a duration on say 6 months between doses.

Covid is an pandemic that we're trying to beat, so it's a case of weighting up potentially better immune responses vs having a fully vaccinated population.

While longer dose spacing means less fully vaccinated people at a given time in the roll out, It also means that we can get more first doses into people, giving broader coverage.

Fred99

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#2750691 27-Jul-2021 14:05

JPNZ:

Whats the next step? Lockdown even harder (not sure what else they can do) or speed up vaccinations greatly.

Lockdown even harder and speed up vaccinations greatly. They really have no choice, but don't seem to want to do it.

There are currently 169 COVID-19 cases admitted to hospital, with 46 people in intensive care, 19 of whom require ventilation.

2 more deaths - so total 10 - so far. Survival rate for ventilated patients is low - it's a last resort.

If you take the outbreak total back a week, just to approximate % requiring hospitalisation now (it takes a week to go from mild to severe covid), then the pool of infected patients at that time who've needed hospitalisation is maybe 1300 or so. Of course that's only a rough estimate, but it's a very dire situation. More than 10% of cases requiring hospital level care, 3-4% requiring ICU.

Delta C-19 is very bad news. We must not let it in to NZ.

GV27

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#2750693 27-Jul-2021 14:08

Fred99:

We must not let it in to NZ.

I think this is beyond our control - we need to accept it will get here, and it will beat our processes and procedures.

We should do our damndest to buy ourselves as much time to vaccinate as many people as possible by then, but it needs to be seen for what it is here: a race against the clock.

tdgeek

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#2750694 27-Jul-2021 14:12

Scott3:

While longer dose spacing means less fully vaccinated people at a given time in the roll out, It also means that we can get more first doses into people, giving broader coverage.

Agree, but the one dose isn't apparently that great. Its like the Law of Physics, you can't beat it

But what do you do?? Find as many arms as we can and pray

Scott3

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#2750695 27-Jul-2021 14:15

JPNZ:

tdgeek:

Must be frustrating when you are probably doing everything you can, yet during the speech you read out why. Seventy-nine of the cases were in the community for all or part of their infectious period

The people aren't cooperating

Indeed, that figure has been climbing for weeks. "infectious in the community" honestly WTH are people in Sydney doing? I remember level 4 here in NZ "Stay home save lives" you hardly saw people leave their houses and when it was it was only to groceries or a walk/cycle/exercise.

Whats the next step? Lockdown even harder (not sure what else they can do) or speed up vaccinations greatly. Either way they are not going to be out of lockdown for months (October onwards IMO) The very real threat is that this is already out of control and it could get MUCH MUCH worse for NSW. People in Hospital and ICU beds are increasing quickly

Doing "Everything you can" is a bit of a stretch. Their lockdown is about level 3.3 - 3.5 in the NZ system, could easily just copy NZ's level 4 (or similar restrictions from other states - seems they are doing a lot better).

Also part of the job is to get the public onside and get high compliance without enforcement, something NZ did really well.

It's going to get progressively harder for NSW, as lock-down fatigue sets in in the general population and compliance drops further. There only seem to be 3 options:

Lock down to NZ level 4 level or harsher, and hope to eliminate the virus in 6 - 10 weeks.
Keep current lock-down, and accept that you are not going to eliminate the virus. Wait cira 20 - 26 week's untill the bulk of the population is fully vaccinated, then end lock-downs (maybe a perpetual level 1.5 - 2 to manage hospital loads) and accept endemic covid-19.
Accept endemic covid-19 not, and start to use restrictions to manage hospital loads rather than to try eliminate the virus. i.e. relax to level 2 now, but go back up to level 3 or 3.5 if hospital cases start to spike.

None are pritty. The last option would be very worrying for neighboring states.

tdgeek

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#2750696 27-Jul-2021 14:22

Wallabies are exempt from the bubble, I'm sure others stuck there wont be impressed. Rugby vs Delta??? Low risk most likely, but its not no risk

mattwnz

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#2750697 27-Jul-2021 14:23

GV27:

Fred99:

We must not let it in to NZ.

I think this is beyond our control - we need to accept it will get here, and it will beat our processes and procedures.

We should do our damndest to buy ourselves as much time to vaccinate as many people as possible by then, but it needs to be seen for what it is here: a race against the clock.

Apart from the trans tasman bubble, the only way it ca get in is via a hole in the MIQ, or another process. We will be lucky to get 60%-70% of the population(based on where it is stalling in other countries) vaccinated by the ned of the year (when we need 99%) unless they do something to entice people, and the biggest enticement is often usually money. Also I suspect they will eventually talk about making it vaccination mandatory, and places may require proof of vaccination.

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