2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2750699 27-Jul-2021 14:25

Scott3:
sbiddle:

It's worth noting that in general, for many existing (non Covid) vaccines that longer gaps between vaccine doses is always better. There are many vaccines out there given with a duration on say 6 months between doses.

Covid is an pandemic that we're trying to beat, so it's a case of weighting up potentially better immune responses vs having a fully vaccinated population.

While longer dose spacing means less fully vaccinated people at a given time in the roll out, It also means that we can get more first doses into people, giving broader coverage.

Not really. A single dose is largely worthless now.

mattwnz

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#2750700 27-Jul-2021 14:25

wellygary:

NSW has a problem, and they don't seem to know what to do....

NSW records 172 new COVID-19 cases, 60 in community while infectious

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-27/nsw-records-172-new-covid19-cases/100325680

It was avoidable if they had followed Victorias processes, and locked down sooner, and had far stricter lockdowns.They didn't want to disrupt the economy too much initially, but now they are learning that it is now going to affect the economy far worse. But they do also have flouters and more people unhappy about lockdowns. They also hold rallies. They also held rallies last year during lockdowns. They are therefore stricter and fine people as a result.

Scott3

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#2750702 27-Jul-2021 14:28

tdgeek:

Scott3:

While longer dose spacing means less fully vaccinated people at a given time in the roll out, It also means that we can get more first doses into people, giving broader coverage.

Agree, but the one dose isn't apparently that great. Its like the Law of Physics, you can't beat it

But what do you do?? Find as many arms as we can and pray

The data seems to be all over the place.

36% effective after a single dose, and 88% effective after both doses according to this source:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

36x2 is 72, so slightly more protection from having one person with two doses vs two people with single doses but not a massive difference. Likely not enough to matter in NZ with no known covid-19 in the community. I think whatever offers better protection should be the priory.

But there are studies out of Israil suggesting pfizer's vaccine is only 39% effective at preventing infection after both doses (41% effective at preventing symptoms). Don't know what to make of this. Would spreading the vaccines more reduce the decay in effectiveness over time? Or are will the presence of boosters make this unimportant?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

mattwnz

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#2750703 27-Jul-2021 14:35

tdgeek:

I'm sure others stuck there wont be impressed. Rugby vs Delta??? Low risk most likely, but its not no risk

Is that without any 14 day MIQ stay? Double standards ? But the virus doesn't know who some people consider as 'important' , and who isn't.

tdgeek

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#2750704 27-Jul-2021 14:37

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

I'm sure others stuck there wont be impressed. Rugby vs Delta??? Low risk most likely, but its not no risk

Is that without any 14 day MIQ stay? Double standards ? But the virus doesn't know who some people consider as 'important' , and who isn't.

Aug 7, so it seems to be bubble rules

mattwnz

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#2750705 27-Jul-2021 14:38

Scott3:

tdgeek:

Agree, but the one dose isn't apparently that great. Its like the Law of Physics, you can't beat it

But what do you do?? Find as many arms as we can and pray

The data seems to be all over the place.

36% effective after a single dose, and 88% effective after both doses according to this source:

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMoa2108891

36x2 is 72, so slightly more protection from having one person with two doses vs two people with single doses but not a massive difference. Likely not enough to matter in NZ with no known covid-19 in the community. I think whatever offers better protection should be the priory.

But there are studies out of Israil suggesting pfizer's vaccine is only 39% effective at preventing infection after both doses (41% effective at preventing symptoms). Don't know what to make of this. Would spreading the vaccines more reduce the decay in effectiveness over time? Or are will the presence of boosters make this unimportant?

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/23/delta-variant-pfizer-covid-vaccine-39percent-effective-in-israel-prevents-severe-illness.html

I wonder how much they are improving the vaccine to accommodate the delta variant

wellygary

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#2750706 27-Jul-2021 14:40

mattwnz:

tdgeek:

I'm sure others stuck there wont be impressed. Rugby vs Delta??? Low risk most likely, but its not no risk

Is that without any 14 day MIQ stay? Double standards ? But the virus doesn't know who some people consider as 'important' , and who isn't.

Yeah, no 14 day MIQ...

But they are coming from QLD and entering under the 72hr pre departure test regime that exists till Friday for those from non-NSW locations

They are taking a private charter so are not denying anyone space on an Air NZ flight....

Tradepub

Free professional, reference and technical white papers (affiliate link).

DS248

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#2750707 27-Jul-2021 14:45

UK case numbers continuing to fall sharply over the last 9 days (to the surprise of at least some experts there)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Alas not so in Israel, with new cases yesterday heading towards the 1,700 mark. The highest there since mid-March and well above their first wave peak (and 10x the Sydney number, to put that in perspective). Daily rate of positive COVID tests is also now above 2% for first time since March.

New severe cases also now approaching levels not seen since mid- to late March (& over 70x the average a month ago).

The above are despite very high levels of adult vaccination.

Scott3

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#2750712 27-Jul-2021 15:00

mattwnz:

I wonder how much they are improving the vaccine to accommodate the delta variant

Pfizer are currently trialing a boaster dose of the same vaccine.

They are currently developing a delta specific booster, and clinical trials could start as early as August.

Aussie's order for 85m more pfizer doses as boosters (half in feb 2022, half in feb 2023) sounds like it is for whatever is the latest available at the time of shipment. Imagine they will be a bit gutted if pfizer fills their entire feb 2022 order in one shipment, then releases the delta specific booster in march...

That delta specific booster is going to be in very high demand. Hope our procurement people are in negotiations now.

mattwnz

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#2750715 27-Jul-2021 15:14

DS248:

UK case numbers continuing to fall sharply over the last 9 days (to the surprise of at least some experts there)

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/

Alas not so in Israel, with new cases yesterday heading towards the 1,700 mark. The highest there since mid-March and well above their first wave peak (and 10x the Sydney number, to put that in perspective). Daily rate of positive COVID tests is also now above 2% for first time since March.

New severe cases also now approaching levels not seen since mid- to late March (& over 70x the average a month ago).

The above are despite very high levels of adult vaccination.

UK is quite an interesting experiment. But the problem is potential variants that could occur as a result. https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57941574

wellygary

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#2750716 27-Jul-2021 15:19

Scott3:

That delta specific booster is going to be in very high demand. Hope our procurement people are in negotiations now.

Yeah, but its a single shot booster, not a double shot vaccination like the current roll out,

Pfizer's production targets in 2021 are 3 billion doses and 4 million in 2022,

Which could mean they could produce 1 billion boosters as well as the 3 billion regular shots they churned out this year..

freitasm

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#2750722 27-Jul-2021 15:40

tdgeek:

Wallabies are exempt from the bubble, I'm sure others stuck there wont be impressed. Rugby vs Delta??? Low risk most likely, but its not no risk

The press release:

Bledisloe Cup rugby will be played in New Zealand after the Australian rugby team received an economic exemption to enter New Zealand.

Travel between Australia and New Zealand was suspended on Friday for at least eight weeks following the worsening of the COVID outbreak across the Tasman. New Zealanders have a seven day window to return home.

At the Cabinet meeting last week the Minister for COVID-19 Response or the Director-General of Health was authorised to consider exemptions on a case by case basis for people not normally resident in New Zealand to travel from Australia to New Zealand within the return window for events which have significant economic impacts.

The Wallabies have been granted an exemption by the acting Minister for COVID-19 Response Ayesha Verrall on this basis.

“This is important economically. A test match is estimated to be worth between $17-20 million in spending for host regions, while the broadcast rights provide much needed income for the sport, which positively effects all levels of the game,” Grant Robertson said.

“Test rugby between the All Blacks and the Wallabies is keenly anticipated by New Zealanders, and I welcome the decision to allow the Australian team to travel given the game was less than two weeks away when trans-Tasman travel was suspended.

“The Wallabies have been operating in their own bubble for some time, and will travel from their base in Queensland on a charter flight to Auckland on Friday morning. They will have to fulfil all normal obligations for travel including negative pre-departure tests within 72 hours of their travel.

“The exemption means the Bledisloe match in Auckland can take place on August 7. Decisions on the other games are dependent on ongoing discussions between New Zealand Rugby and Rugby Australia.”

“This decision was not taken lightly by the Government and given the Wallabies use of a charter flight, there is no restriction on public access to a return flight to New Zealand,” Grant Robertson said.

Batman

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#2750724 27-Jul-2021 15:53

Negative wastewater testing in New Plymouth Sat & Sunday. More testing this week

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-fears-infections-could-be-going-undetected-in-taranaki/ENKDD4BOWMJWAZOZB2XCW7ZWUQ/

wellygary

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#2750728 27-Jul-2021 16:14

Batman: Negative wastewater testing in New Plymouth Sat & Sunday. More testing this week

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-fears-infections-could-be-going-undetected-in-taranaki/ENKDD4BOWMJWAZOZB2XCW7ZWUQ/

Here's the verbatim MoH statement, without the sensational headine-ing

"Daily sampling from the New Plymouth wastewater treatment plant will continue for the next week to determine whether there are any undetected cases in the city.

Further test samples have also been collected from sites around the region.

Latest wastewater test results from a 24 hour period between Saturday and Sunday, from 6 sites, show no further virus has been detected.

Local PCR testing in Taranaki remains steady with around 300 swabs taken yesterday. It's pleasing to see these numbers increasing.

The Ministry is continuing to encourage anyone in Taranaki with symptoms to be tested.

The Ministry is also recommending that any recent arrivals from Australia, who have symptoms, also get tested, and anyone who has recently been in Australia who is now in Taranaki to get tested even if they don’t have symptoms.

Additional testing capacity remains open in New Plymouth to support potential demand.

People who have recently been in Australia should continue to check the State websites for locations of interest as new locations of interest continue to be identified.

Anyone with symptoms consistent with COVID-19 should call Healthline (0800 358 5453) for advice on getting a test.

For Taranaki testing locations please visit the Taranaki DHB website.

For a list of all testing locations nationwide visit the Healthpoint website.

https://www.health.govt.nz/news-media/media-releases/no-new-community-cases-1-new-case-covid-19-managed-isolation-7

Fred99

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#2750730 27-Jul-2021 16:16

Batman: Negative wastewater testing in New Plymouth Sat & Sunday. More testing this week

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-fears-infections-could-be-going-undetected-in-taranaki/ENKDD4BOWMJWAZOZB2XCW7ZWUQ/

Good. Sense of impending doom reduced by one point.

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