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freitasm
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  #2751804 29-Jul-2021 15:24
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  #2751901 29-Jul-2021 17:49
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I was looking up some figures on the reported RSV "surge" to explain it to friends overseas and, from the data reported here, it looks an awful lot like regression to the mean:

 

 

Data from the past week put the respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection rate at 143 per 1 million people

 

 

[...]

 

 

In 2016, at most, there were 40.04 cases per 1m; 39.4 in 2017; 28.45 in 2018; and 40.28 in 2019.

 

 

The lack of cases in 2020 – at most, there were 0.98 cases per 1m people mainly thanks to Covid-19 lockdowns and border controls

 

 

So it's about 70 per million over the 2020/2021 period, which is double the usual rate, which in any case is fairly low, so not quite as scary as it's made out to be.

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  #2751908 29-Jul-2021 18:02
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freitasm:

 

@Daynger:

 

I rang the healthline number 0800282926 around 630pm last night and got booked in.

 

I only waited about 3min before i was on the line to a real human who booked both myself and my girlfriend in for our vaccines.

 

I asked to have the second at 6weeks which she obliged and booked it all in at the same time.

 

 

What group are you in?

 

 

 

 

I havnt had a message but i should have been group 3, i have asthma and very occasionally work airside at the airport in departures.

 

My partner is under 60 and has no conditions but they booked her for the same days as me.




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  #2751912 29-Jul-2021 18:28
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ezbee:

 

New South Wales 
Not totally out of control, as that would be geometric growth and very nasty.

 

Looking at peaks internationally far worse rates per million people are possible.

 

You might say that more would be expected considering stupid protest events designed to drive up infection.
Once these people have eliminated themselves numbers might moderate.

 

Problem is any additional control measures will not show for a week or two.

 

 

81 isolated, 22 partially isolated, 66 not isolated, and 70 under investigation. 

 

I don't think delta has been contained anywhere once it's reached that stage.  I guess it's still theoretically possible to contain it, but the lockdown conditions are going to have to be very hard, and they're going to have to be very actively policed.

 

The NSW police commissioner has requested assistance from the Australia Defence Force.  The reaction from the dicks who intend to have public rallies for "freedumb" will be interesting.  Having to call in the army to keep your citizens under control isn't something seen very often in our countries. 


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  #2751913 29-Jul-2021 18:28
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Further research pointing to a decline in vaccine effectiveness over several months.  This time data out of UK, with the UK data now looking similar to the Israeli results posted previously.

 

https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/jul/vaccine-antibody-levels-start-wane-around-2-3-months

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01642-1/fulltext

 

 

 

Edit: Added link to paper in The Lancet


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  #2751914 29-Jul-2021 18:33
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DS248:

Further research pointing to a decline in vaccine effectiveness over several months.  This time data out of UK, with the UK data now looking similar to the Israeli results posted previously.


https://www.ucl.ac.uk/news/2021/jul/vaccine-antibody-levels-start-wane-around-2-3-months


https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(21)01642-1/fulltext


 


Edit: Added link to paper in The Lancet



Not necessarily the best news for those of us who were stabbed first...

 
 
 

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DS248
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  #2751915 29-Jul-2021 18:34
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Significant cognitive deficits in people who have recovered from COVID-19

 

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/eclinm/article/PIIS2589-5370(21)00324-2/fulltext

 

"People who had recovered from COVID-19, including those no longer reporting symptoms, exhibited significant cognitive deficits versus controls when controlling for age, gender, education level, income, racial-ethnic group, pre-existing medical disorders, tiredness, depression and anxiety. The deficits were of substantial effect size for people who had been hospitalised (N = 192), but also for non-hospitalised cases who had biological confirmation of COVID-19 infection (N = 326). Analysing markers of premorbid intelligence did not support these differences being present prior to infection. Finer grained analysis of performance across sub-tests supported the hypothesis that COVID-19 has a multi-domain impact on human cognition."

 

 

 

 


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  #2751916 29-Jul-2021 18:34
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Three News had a piece on the mass vaccination this weekend, looks impressive. Based on a Canadian model, people bus in, get walked through to 12 cubicles, walk out, bussed back to MIT. One jab every 90 seconds, essentially an assembly line. 15000 for the three days


Batman

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  #2751918 29-Jul-2021 18:38
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Army to be deployed into Sydney

 

https://www.smh.com.au/national/australia-news-live-nsw-covid-19-cases-continue-to-grow-as-greater-sydney-begins-first-day-of-extended-lockdown-victoria-on-alert-after-mystery-case-20210728-p58drs.html

 

"The Australian Defence Force will assist with enforcement of Sydney’s lockdown following a formal request to Prime Minister Scott Morrison from NSW Police.

 

While NSW has previously declined an offer for military assistance with the operation to enforce public health orders, police said an escalation of efforts over the coming days justified the request."


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  #2751920 29-Jul-2021 18:39
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Batman:

 

some Olympic athletes are in lockdown

 

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/australian-athletes-locked-down-in-covid-chaos-at-the-tokyo-olympics/7ISMTGZPWX424EOVLECKPUQQYY/

 

 

 

 

Yeah its a shocker. The place is a state of emergency, competitors dropping out, now Covid is running round the track and field centre.


 
 
 

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Batman

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  #2751929 29-Jul-2021 19:09
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Fred99:

 

The NSW police commissioner has requested assistance from the Australia Defence Force.  The reaction from the dicks who intend to have public rallies for "freedumb" will be interesting.  Having to call in the army to keep your citizens under control isn't something seen very often in our countries. 

 

 

If this leads to an arms race between the government and protestors then things could get very, very ugly. 


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  #2751935 29-Jul-2021 19:29
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alasta:

Fred99:


The NSW police commissioner has requested assistance from the Australia Defence Force.  The reaction from the dicks who intend to have public rallies for "freedumb" will be interesting.  Having to call in the army to keep your citizens under control isn't something seen very often in our countries. 



If this leads to an arms race between the government and protestors then things could get very, very ugly. 



Possible but unlikely. The Australian authorities should have it covered. It's not America.

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  #2751945 29-Jul-2021 19:47
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sbiddle: Rather brutal takedown - Trashing AstraZeneca is now a national sport — not a national saviour (crikey.com.au) 

 

From the article "News outlets still don’t seem to grasp that most readers don’t read beyond the headline." - completely incorrect. News outlets know this only too well and phrase their headlines accordingly to suit whatever barrow they want to push.


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