2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2752153 30-Jul-2021 08:15

It's IMO a bit early for the UK to declare victory.

The decline in new cases coincides with summer school holidays (between mid July and September).

Here's an indication of what's being seen in Sydney:

Transmission between family members remains one of the main reasons the virus continues to spread, with almost 200 children aged nine or under testing positive in Sydney in the past two weeks.

DS248

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#2752241 30-Jul-2021 09:50

sbiddle:

I hadn't looked at this study for a month or so, and the numbers have grown significantly. It shows estimated percentages for antibodies across the UK

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveyantibodyandvaccinationdatafortheuk/21july2021

This is the latest release of the data (while published on the 21st July, the data lags behind so will be even higher now)

...

In England, it is estimated that around 9 in 10 adults, or 91.9% of the adult population (95% credible interval: 90.5% to 93.0%) would have tested positive for antibodies against coronavirus (COVID-19) - SARS-CoV-2 - on a blood test in the week beginning 28 June 2021, suggesting they had the infection in the past or have been vaccinated.

...

Across all four countries of the UK, there is a clear pattern between vaccination and testing positive for COVID-19 antibodies but the detection of antibodies alone is not a precise measure of the immunity protection given by vaccination.

I haven't been convinced that the UK was going to burn down with their opening, and have trusted science over the views of many (including several prominent self proclaimed Covid experts in NZ) who simply want the UK to burn because they're anti Boris and anti Tory.

The next few weeks are going to be very interesting, and there are certainly going to be people who are going to have to eat a lot of humble pie if the real world results back the scientific data that shows vaccines work. If the UK does burn down I really don't know what hope there is for the rest of us..

Perhaps too soon to imagine victory in the England. They only very recently relaxed Covid restrictions and after falling sharply over the last two weeks, their case numbers have increased again in the last two days; 31k yesterday up from 23k two days earlier [Edit: These numbers are for UK as a whole, not just England]. Of course, will need to see how this pans out over the next few weeks to know whether this is just a blip in the data or a definite trend.

Israel have equally high vaccination rates but as below there has been a large jump in case numbers since restrictions were relaxed two months ago, with the current rate now higher than during earlier peaks in April and July 2020.. The case numbers have so far continued to increase after limited reintroduction of restrictions a week or so ago.

Although most research indicates good effectiveness of the vaccines against serious illness and death, across the whole population the ratio of serious illness to confirmed cases in Israel has remained close to the average over the last 15 months (7- or 10-day lag).

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#2752246 30-Jul-2021 09:59

Further to my post above, it is instructive to compare the Oxford Stringency Index trends for England and Israel (& New Zealand!).

As indicated, the OSI for England has only very recently dropped to (or below?) the level that appears to have triggered the upsurge in cases in Israeli

(& indeed to the level that NZ has been at for many months. Skating on thin ice?)

Edit: corrected problem with plot horizontal axis

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#2752254 30-Jul-2021 10:10

re: England vs Israel OSI trends

Worth also noting that prior to the recent drop, the OSI in England was at a level very similar to that in Israel during May.

And as in England, at that OSI level the Israeli case numbers were dropping sharply.

Batman

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#2752268 30-Jul-2021 10:43

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-mass-vaccination-event-in-south-auckland-starts-today/QF4QD57O2YLAHGXDHZMYI6DY3M/

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#2752285 30-Jul-2021 11:23

Batman:

....

The Philippine president, Rodrigo Duterte, said officials should detain those who refuse to be vaccinated against Covid inside their homes. Legal experts said the move would be unconstitutional and reflected his “militaristic mindset”, after Duterte claimed responding to the pandemic was more important than laws guaranteeing freedom of movement
....

For come context around this, Philippines is only 5.8% fully vaccinated. The demand for vaccination (non china made ones at least) doses far exceeds availability.

The early vaccination program was highly inequitable. Extremely focused on Manila, and eligibility driven by rates information, effectively meaning the large numbers of "informal" residents miss out. The majority of people my partner knows (generally middle class and up, diverse ages) have been vaccinated for many weeks despite the low overall vaccination rate in the Philippines.

In general people in the Philippines are desperate to get vaccinated. They have been hard hit. If my extended family is anything to go by, most people will know somebody who has died or been very hard hit be covid-19.

Here is a 9 day old video where desperate people rushed a vaccination center.

https://www.dailymotion.com/video/x82tk5w

There are stories of people physically fighting to get doses at vaccination centers, and even turning up with knives and stealing the loaded syringes from the staff. Both very desperate moves in a country where armed security (often with a shotgun) staff are common.

Obviously all this talk about punishing those who refuse vaccinations, kinda misses that there is a massive unvaccinated and willing population that can use all available doses for at least several months.

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#2752359 30-Jul-2021 11:47

Batman:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-mass-vaccination-event-in-south-auckland-starts-today/QF4QD57O2YLAHGXDHZMYI6DY3M/

Video and description of the setup seems slick.

In theory, show up, "register" (have your appointment checked), get assigned a booth (say c-14), sit there, and you don't have to move again untill you are vaccinated and your 20min observation is complete.

"Our Mass Vaccination Event is based on an international model, designed to get large groups of people vaccinated efficiently and safely in a short period of time at a single venue."

People coming for the vaccine will come into the arena, queue up and then be directed to a seat in a booth. There are 242 vaccination booths in the center.

Once seated all of the services will be delivered there.

"This minimises movement and disruption and allows for a higher throughput of people," the DHB said.

Sadly something seems to have gone amiss, with the center running an hour behind at about 10:40 this morning, and people abandoning their appointment's as they have other commitments that clash due to the unexpected long wait times.

GV27

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#2752361 30-Jul-2021 11:49

Scott3:

Sadly something seems to have gone amiss, with the center running an hour behind at about 10:40 this morning, and people abandoning their appointment's as they have other commitments that clash due to the unexpected long wait times.

Probably a) likely to happen at the first one and b) a good test of the follow-up system for booked no-shows who have to leave appointments.

Batman

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#2752383 30-Jul-2021 12:06

Scott3:
Batman:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-mass-vaccination-event-in-south-auckland-starts-today/QF4QD57O2YLAHGXDHZMYI6DY3M/

Video and description of the setup seems slick.

In theory, show up, "register" (have your appointment checked), get assigned a booth (say c-14), sit there, and you don't have to move again untill you are vaccinated and your 20min observation is complete.

"Our Mass Vaccination Event is based on an international model, designed to get large groups of people vaccinated efficiently and safely in a short period of time at a single venue."

People coming for the vaccine will come into the arena, queue up and then be directed to a seat in a booth. There are 242 vaccination booths in the center.

Once seated all of the services will be delivered there.

"This minimises movement and disruption and allows for a higher throughput of people," the DHB said.

Sadly something seems to have gone amiss, with the center running an hour behind at about 10:40 this morning, and people abandoning their appointment's as they have other commitments that clash due to the unexpected long wait times.

Have you ever had an appointment at a doctor in the hospital and expect to get out on time?

Technofreak

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#2752389 30-Jul-2021 12:16

This mass vaccination event seems to be more a PR exercise than getting the job done.

People still have to book. Why not just get on with the vaccination centres like we have now and seriously ramp up the medical clinic vaccinations. We vaccinate a significant portion of the population each year in just a month or two for the flu without any fanfare or fuss.

Just get on with the job.

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#2752400 30-Jul-2021 12:37

GV27:
Scott3:

Sadly something seems to have gone amiss, with the center running an hour behind at about 10:40 this morning, and people abandoning their appointment's as they have other commitments that clash due to the unexpected long wait times.

Probably a) likely to happen at the first one and b) a good test of the follow-up system for booked no-shows who have to leave appointments.

Yip. A few bumps don't really matter. What matters is the total number of vaccinations.

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Handle9

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#2752402 30-Jul-2021 12:40

Technofreak:
This mass vaccination event seems to be more a PR exercise than getting the job done.

People still have to book. Why not just get on with the vaccination centres like we have now and seriously ramp up the medical clinic vaccinations. We vaccinate a significant portion of the population each year in just a month or two for the flu without any fanfare or fuss.

Just get on with the job.

PR is incredibly important in this phase. Reaching the maximum number of people, especially the hesitant, relies on good news stories.

Vaccination good news hasn't been that prevalent up until now. Having a functional booking system and large numbers being publicised will increase the uptake overall.

tdgeek

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#2752409 30-Jul-2021 12:47

Technofreak:

This mass vaccination event seems to be more a PR exercise than getting the job done.

People still have to book. Why not just get on with the vaccination centres like we have now and seriously ramp up the medical clinic vaccinations. We vaccinate a significant portion of the population each year in just a month or two for the flu without any fanfare or fuss.

Just get on with the job.

I agree and pharmacies and surgeries are coming, but these events are huge, 16000 in a weekend. We are doing just under 40,000 a day that needs to get to 50,000+ you can add to that nicely with a mass event in two parts of the country most weekends

The issues were they wanted 15000 and only 3000 were interested, thats a big issue. So they got 16000 appointments and people are turning up early, pushing in, thats causing lines. And some not even turning up. Pretty poor

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#2752412 30-Jul-2021 12:57

Sat/sun will likely be the ones not hoping the boss will let them skive off work
So should see improvement. But will be hampered by those that think their spare time on a weekend is more important too.

Most appointments suggest be there 10min early. That's semi normal if the process is running ahead or to advise of delays rather than chase people. Using busses, any traffic is going to offset the process unless they have police escort.

It may be that people are just expecting too much on day 1

Fred99

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#2752413 30-Jul-2021 13:00

Batman:

Have you ever had an appointment at a doctor in the hospital and expect to get out on time?

Yep. I've taken different people for specialist appointments many dozens of times over the past few years, and I'm impressed at how well they've got their appointment system managed. It's very good indeed. This at Chch central and Burwood across various departments.

This isn't an endorsement of CDHB. Other things there suck, but they've got that part of their operation sorted.

Hopefully when they amalgamate / disestablish the boards, they'll take the successful systems from DHBs that have things sorted and implement those systems nationwide. But I get the feeling that instead they'll spend a zillion or two on consultants who'll try to reinvent the wheel, and it'll be the usual colossal bottomless money pit with government reforms.

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