Tweet from NSW Health, 170 new cases:

tdgeek:

 

I agree and pharmacies and surgeries are coming, but these events are huge, 16000 in a weekend. We are doing just under 40,000 a day that needs to get to 50,000+ you can add to that nicely with a mass event in two parts of the country most weekends

 

The issues were they wanted 15000 and only 3000 were interested, thats a big issue. So they got 16000 appointments and people are turning up early, pushing in, thats causing lines. And some not even turning up. Pretty poor

 

Regarding the take rate, I wouldn't read too much into it until a proper de-brief was done.

Heaps of reasons people who are keen to vaccinated might chose to sit this one out:

• Not available either this weekend, or the 2nd dose event in a few weeks time due to clashes (Booking invites didn't have a heap of notice).
• Not wanting to be involved in an event that is seems set up to draw lots of media attention.
• Pefer to get vaccinated in a setting running at a more relaxed pace.
• Location not convenient. (or even not being willing to go out of their way to get the vaccine)
• Not wanting to have to wait for and take bus shuttles in the midst of a global pandemic.
• Concern the first event would go poorly and end in delays.
• Happy to wait untill walk in's are available later in the year.
• Concern that they are are not yet eligible and that the invite was sent in error, and they want higher risk people to be prioritized.

Frankly in covid-19 free NZ, many will see little pressing urge to get vaccinated, so won't go out of their way to do so. These people will be captured if it is super convenient (i.e. they are in the GP for something else, and they get offered a vacciantion with zero wait time "while they are here anyway") or when we have an outbreak, or there is talk of letting covid-19 back into NZ.

Scott3:

 

tdgeek:

 

I agree and pharmacies and surgeries are coming, but these events are huge, 16000 in a weekend. We are doing just under 40,000 a day that needs to get to 50,000+ you can add to that nicely with a mass event in two parts of the country most weekends

 

The issues were they wanted 15000 and only 3000 were interested, thats a big issue. So they got 16000 appointments and people are turning up early, pushing in, thats causing lines. And some not even turning up. Pretty poor

 

 

Regarding the take rate, I wouldn't read too much into it until a proper de-brief was done.

 

Heaps of reasons people who are keen to vaccinated might chose to sit this one out:

 

• Not available either this weekend, or the 2nd dose event in a few weeks time due to clashes (Booking invites didn't have a heap of notice).
• Not wanting to be involved in an event that is seems set up to draw lots of media attention.
• Pefer to get vaccinated in a setting running at a more relaxed pace.
• Location not convenient. (or even not being willing to go out of their way to get the vaccine)
• Not wanting to have to wait for and take bus shuttles in the midst of a global pandemic.
• Concern the first event would go poorly and end in delays.
• Happy to wait untill walk in's are available later in the year.
• Concern that they are are not yet eligible and that the invite was sent in error, and they want higher risk people to be prioritized.

Frankly in covid-19 free NZ, many will see little pressing urge to get vaccinated, so won't go out of their way to do so. These people will be captured if it is super convenient (i.e. they are in the GP for something else, and they get offered a vacciantion with zero wait time "while they are here anyway") or when we have an outbreak, or there is talk of letting covid-19 back into NZ.

 

I would agree with your list if it wasnt for the fact that these 16000 booked, so they had no issue with most of your valid points. If this was a turn up anytime if you want thing, then yes those points would apply.

But that they got a poor response when seeking bookings, just 3000, that says alot.

tdgeek:

 

I would agree with your list if it wasnt for the fact that these 16000 booked, so they had no issue with most of your valid points. If this was a turn up anytime if you want thing, then yes those points would apply.

 

But that they got a poor response when seeking bookings, just 3000, that says alot.

 

Frankly given the list, getting a 25% booking rate from the inital 12000 target audience was pretty good in my eyes for an "event"

And then just over 10% when they stopped putting out invites (140,000). (but from Reddit it sounded like the spread of these people was pretty broad, upper Waikato to North auckland).

So a decent percentage obviously had no issues with the list, but the booking rate wasn't anywhere near the 125% (incl family members) of 12,000 MIT invites initially sent out which would have seen them fill the event alone.

Scott3:

 

So a decent percentage obviously had no issues with the list, but the booking rate wasn't anywhere near the 125% (incl family members) of 12,000 MIT invites initially sent out which would have seen them fill the event alone.

 

Yep. The odd thing is, if we got one CT case there would be 3 hours wait in a long line of cars for just a test. Yet to get a vaccine to ward off the threat, its too much hassle for most people

Batman:

Have you ever had an appointment at a doctor in the hospital and expect to get out on time?

I can't recall having an appointment with a doctor in a hospital, but I don't recall particular issues with the one's I took my spouse too.

Anyway I am not sure the comparison is valid, getting vaccinated should be quick and easy, the actual injection is... Unlike the specialized care typically provided by hospital doctors.

Efficiency and speed was something that was hyped at this event.

Potentially there is an issue of projection too. Somebody that has allowed a (fairly generous in my eyes) 2 hours, and shows up for their 10:40 appointment, and they are calling the 9:50 people, when the center opened at 9, they are now 50 minutes behind. If the pace stays the same they will be 1:40 behind by the time you get called. Then you have to the bus ride, any queues at the actual venue, the process incl 20min observation, wait for a bus, and a bus ride back...

Pretty easy for somebody to decide this will now take half a day, and make the call to abandon their appointment.

Does seem they have managed to get the process running OK. longest wait time to get on a bus I have seen is 1:08... So this hasn't blown out massively from the 50min wait expected at 10:40.

Scott3:

 

Does seem they have managed to get the process running OK. longest wait time to get on a bus I have seen is 1:08... So this hasn't blown out massively from the 50min wait expected at 10:40.

 

There wasnt meant to be a wait, you turn up 10 minutes early and you hop on the bus, hop off walk to the cubicle, wait 20 minutes and go

As I see it, delays are due to the people who turned up early, and push in on the bus. If the process is broken and it cannot manage orderly people turning up on time, then that is a problem, but I doubt that's the case. No one goes a a doctor very early, no one goes to the surgeon way early, so why go the vaccine event way before your allotted time? They will end up complaining to the media about a problem they in fact caused. Maybe NZ isn't suited to a vaccine event

Batman: You're right it's not complex like a doctor visit.

It's simple like getting into a stadium. Have you ever tried to get into a stadium when 16, 000 other people.

This needs a real life simulation training to get right. It won't run like a well oiled machine from day 1.

I'm not giving them excuses it's just a fact of large scale logistics without dress rehearsals.

From what Ive read I blame the people

Batman: You're right it's not complex like a doctor visit.

It's simple like getting into a stadium. Have you ever tried to get into a stadium when 16, 000 other people.

This needs a real life simulation training to get right. It won't run like a well oiled machine from day 1.

I'm not giving them excuses it's just a fact of large scale logistics without dress rehearsals.

Yes, a 50 minute wait would not be considered reasonable. Typically they have many different 15+ isles to enter, a person with a ticket scanner / smartphone, then sometimes one or two security guards to check bags for contraband. Common to have zero queue. Generally people get upset if 30min+ (saw that once at a festival for people with e-tickets. Lucky I had a physical ticket and a security guard with no scanner was letting people with them through a side gate.

But the comparison is fairly harsh. Its not 16,000 people at once. Its 16,000 people over 3 days. If 8 hour days that under 700 an hour.

tdgeek:

 

There wasnt meant to be a wait, you turn up 10 minutes early and you hop on the bus, hop off walk to the cubicle, wait 20 minutes and go

 

As I see it, delays are due to the people who turned up early, and push in on the bus. If the process is broken and it cannot manage orderly people turning up on time, then that is a problem, but I doubt that's the case. No one goes a a doctor very early, no one goes to the surgeon way early, so why go the vaccine event way before your allotted time? They will end up complaining to the media about a problem they in fact caused. Maybe NZ isn't suited to a vaccine event

 

People turning up early did get mentioned on the mid day news, somehow I doubt that is the key issue. And it it is, then it is as you say a issue. While booking only, first step in the process should be a appointment check. pretty easy to decline entry and ask the people who turn up two hours early to come back later...

I don't think the comparison to a doctor is valid though. This is a flow type event. Often times are given to keep flow steady over the day, but that is the only real purpose. As an example of I went to Happy Place at spark arena with my partner and kid. For this it didn't really matter when you turned up (assume there was some limit, but likely +/- 45 mins of your booking was fine. Immediately got scanned in, and sent up stairs to queue up for our turn to start in the flow of the attraction (cira 15min wait).

This approach means that many the younger demogrhic will assume that it is fine to be a lot more "flexible" with their arrival time as it is not like they are allocated a slot with a particular person that they need to meet. For us often would mean we would be 15 mins late...

I was really surprised that the large vaccination centers are sorting people into lines according to booking time. Seems like un-needed hassle, and less equitable wait time (person who shows up to their appointment 40min late gets let right in while the people that show up on time need to wait 40min for their tranche...

Much easier to screen people for an appointment +/- a hour of the current time (Screening was done at entry to the car-park when I got my second dose), then just let them line up as they arrive. People being early and late will somewhat balance, but likley will come out a bit in favor of people being early. This can be managed by having staff start accepting people in and doing vaccinations 15mins prior to advertised time.

tdgeek:

From what Ive read I blame the people

Sydney.

Seems that people are not presenting for treatment or testing until they get very very ill, or worse...
Makes a good outcome difficult to achieve. 
Never mind all your friends and loved ones you spread this to in meantime.
Yep this is really Australia, not the Deep South of USA, Dr Kerry Chant is Chief Health Officer of NSW.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-07-30/covid-live-blog-latest-news-australia-nsw-qld-vaccine-lockdown/100335538

""
CHO Kerry Chant says families are bringing severely unwell, even dead, loved ones to hospital
Dr Chant urges people to get tested and seek care if they are feeling unwell:

"I'm just struck by the tragedy of it, that we've had a number of people that are presented to hospital severely unwell and sometimes dead. I just think that people need to know that with COVID, you can deteriorate quite quickly.

"What I would say [is] that our health services are among the best in the world. We do provide good care. There shouldn't be any barriers to people ringing an ambulance, coming to healthcare, getting tested.
""

Seems there is a mass infection event scheduled for tomorrow.

ezbee:

 

Seems there is a mass infection event scheduled for tomorrow.

 

Every single case in NSW is delta.  There was an interesting article by an epidemiological modeller I read earlier. TLDR version: Covid used to be able to be contained with contact tracing etc if  there was ~60% full compliance with lockdown, about the same as was thought to be needed for "herd immunity", though that's a kind of debatable concept to begin with.  Now they need at least 80% compliance, something they'd never achieved in the past. 

I suspect the freedumb warriors are going to be facing walls of police if they turn up to protest tomorrow.  At least 1,000 police will be mobilised.

Fred99:

 

Every single case in NSW is delta.  There was an interesting article by an epidemiological modeller I read earlier. TLDR version: Covid used to be able to be contained with contact tracing etc if  there was ~60% full compliance with lockdown, about the same as was thought to be needed for "herd immunity", though that's a kind of debatable concept to begin with.  Now they need at least 80% compliance, something they'd never achieved in the past. 

 

I suspect the freedumb warriors are going to be facing walls of police if they turn up to protest tomorrow.  At least 1,000 police will be mobilised.

 

 

 

Agree. Normal Covid is not a real drama. Even here the vast majority of deaths were at rest homes. Delta is a whole new ball game. While no fan of the Premier, all she can do is say the same things, which all get ignored.