2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2755050 4-Aug-2021 13:38

20+ yr dies in Sydney

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-man-in-his-20s-dies-at-sydney-home-from-covid-nsw-records-233-new-cases/XDWIUJRSQDWRVVZLUQAR2WUNDY/

Eva888

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#2755058 4-Aug-2021 13:57

Batman: 20+ yr dies in Sydney

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/covid-19-coronavirus-man-in-his-20s-dies-at-sydney-home-from-covid-nsw-records-233-new-cases/XDWIUJRSQDWRVVZLUQAR2WUNDY/

That’s sobering news. Very sad.

Batman

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#2755060 4-Aug-2021 14:01

delta has changed everything

tdgeek

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#2755063 4-Aug-2021 14:06

Batman:

delta has changed everything

I'll say

Fred99

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#2755082 4-Aug-2021 14:56

Demographics of the last 7 day case in NSW:

The federal government has today publicly released long awaited modelling from the Doherty Institute, outlining the level of vaccination needed to reopen the country.

The modelling proposes a shift in the vaccination rollout, once supply allows, to focus on vaccinating under 40s who are the greatest spreaders.

tehgerbil

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#2755084 4-Aug-2021 15:05

Watching China have its worst outbreak (we know of) since January and large scale protests in Australia I'm damn thankful I live in NZ.

Appreciate she's far from perfect but Jacinda has done the right thing by all (nearly) 5 million of us, and I do acknowledge and respect that.

Now we're accelerating ahead with having mass vaccination events which are well run and we may actually get out of this endemic still without many experiencing the worst ravages of COVID.

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DS248

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#2755087 4-Aug-2021 15:21

Total doses per capita (ex total population) in Singapore now exceeds both UK and Israel. In the latter case due in part to the relative youth of the Israeli population.

But probably mostly due to the higher proportion of younger people vaccinated in Singapore.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/

wellygary

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#2755088 4-Aug-2021 15:22

tehgerbil:

Now we're accelerating ahead with having mass vaccination events which are well run and we may actually get out of this endemic still without many experiencing the worst ravages of COVID.

Although we're still months away from having anywhere near wide enough coverage to blunt an incursion....
but Every week we vaccinate more and more vulnerable to help keep serious illness and death away an

And its clear vaccines work,

according to google

Victoria has had around 21,000 cases ( most in the big outbreak last year) they had over 800 deaths..

NSW has has around 10,000 cases, most this year and the death toll is around 70.....

FineWine

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#2755089 4-Aug-2021 15:23

Batman:

delta has changed everything

Hopefully the Lambda variant does not up the ante.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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#2755091 4-Aug-2021 15:29

I can't see Brisbane ending their lockdown this Sunday

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#2755092 4-Aug-2021 15:34

FineWine:

Batman:

delta has changed everything

Hopefully the Lambda variant does not up the ante.

Lambda's not of massive concern. But there is so much covid-19 globally the variant's aren't going to stop at Lambda.

Care of fred99:

"Nextstrain allows you to create a graph based on sequenced cases by emerging lineage over time - by region.

This for South America, where Lambda emerged:

It's being crushed by Delta there now.

This for North America:

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tieke

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#2755108 4-Aug-2021 15:43

wellygary:

And its clear vaccines work,

according to google

Victoria has had around 21,000 cases ( most in the big outbreak last year) they had over 800 deaths..

NSW has has around 10,000 cases, most this year and the death toll is around 70.....

Although vaccines obviously do work to reduce deaths, they aren't really the major differentiator for those figures - the vast majority of Victoria's deaths (around 680?) were from the outbreak running loose in aged care facilities, rather than just being in the general population as NSW's current outbreak is.

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#2755113 4-Aug-2021 15:55

NSW aged care facilities are being tested by this outbreak.
While the rapid movement is mostly through younger mobile population, workers in aged care are younger, and so are the grandchildren of the oldies.

Might much worse have been saved by there being comprehensive vaccination of people in Aged care, well I think its fair inference even if data is lacking.

Its a great pity that some working in aged care facilities are not vaccinated, despite being also at top of queue.

https://www.theleader.com.au/story/7370921/second-aged-care-worker-tests-positive-to-covid-19/

Scott3

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#2755114 4-Aug-2021 15:55

wellygary:

tehgerbil:

Now we're accelerating ahead with having mass vaccination events which are well run and we may actually get out of this endemic still without many experiencing the worst ravages of COVID.

Although we're still months away from having anywhere near wide enough coverage to blunt an incursion....
but Every week we vaccinate more and more vulnerable to help keep serious illness and death away an

And its clear vaccines work,

according to google

Victoria has had around 21,000 cases ( most in the big outbreak last year) they had over 800 deaths..

NSW has has around 10,000 cases, most this year and the death toll is around 70.....

Currency we are at 15.4% fully vaccinated. Even that much should have a materiel impact on the R0 of the virus, affording slightly more time to our contract tracers, and meaning the threshold of lock-down harshness to contain the virus is slighly lower...

But yes, every week, at the current 250k/week dose rate, that fully vaccinated number should go up by 2.5 percentage points. So 25% in four weeks time. Hopefully by then we will have stepped up to 350k per week, so 40% 8 weeks from today.... And potentially in only 14 weeks from today we will have hit the 60% threshold that international experience shows our dose rate is likely to decline as we have exhausted our "easy" population, and need to exert more effort to access harder to reach populations. Hopefully that number will be a little higher in NZ as we should have the 12-15 year approval through by then.

If we can make it through the next 2-3 weeks (incubation time for say two covid-19 cycles from when isolation free arrivals from Aussie stopped), we will be able to relax somewhat, situation is improving fast.

Batman

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#2755115 4-Aug-2021 15:57

DS248:

Total doses per capita (ex total population) in Singapore now exceeds both UK and Israel. In the latter case due in part to the relative youth of the Israeli population.

But probably mostly due to the higher proportion of younger people vaccinated in Singapore.

https://ig.ft.com/coronavirus-vaccine-tracker/

in Singapore, the young people were the ones who had little to no vaccine hesitancy, it was the old folk who needed convincing :)

both of which were moot a few months ago due to supply constraints

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