2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2755116 4-Aug-2021 15:57

Rikkitic:
We have some of the highest rates in the world for certain cancers, like bowel cancer, that are probably related to poor diet, as is obesity (also one of the highest) and diabetes resulting from that. It can be argued that these people also take up space denying others with non-preventable diseases or injuries the level of care they deserve. What is the difference?

One requires a complete lifestyle change, or may even be impossible if the underlying cause is genetic or social, and it only affects you. The other is 30 minutes(?) of your life and a one-second moment of discomfort, and it potentially affects the entire country if you're patient 0 of a CT outbreak.

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#2755122 4-Aug-2021 16:08

neb:
Rikkitic:

We have some of the highest rates in the world for certain cancers, like bowel cancer, that are probably related to poor diet, as is obesity (also one of the highest) and diabetes resulting from that. It can be argued that these people also take up space denying others with non-preventable diseases or injuries the level of care they deserve. What is the difference?

One requires a complete lifestyle change, or may even be impossible if the underlying cause is genetic or social, and it only affects you. The other is 30 minutes(?) of your life and a one-second moment of discomfort, and it potentially affects the entire country if you're patient 0 of a CT outbreak.

The question was about those not vaccinated bumping others from hospital places. People who eat themselves into care also cost the entire country if they use up available services. It does not only affect them.

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neb

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#2755131 4-Aug-2021 16:15

Emmanuel Macron recently did a TikTok session with French youth to try and persuade them to get vaccinated. The outcome: A flurry of conspiracy theories about the logo on the t-shirt he was wearing:

Owl play: Macron’s T-shirt logo inspires conspiracy theories

Hours after Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to persuade French youngsters to get vaccinated on Monday, the buzz across the country was less of Covid shots and more of mysterious clothing symbols.

[...]

Unfortunately, the subsequent flurry of speculation and conspiracy theories suggested some gave more of a hoot about the white owl logo on the T-shirt than about Macron’s message.

If you made this stuff up for a TV soap opera, people would dismiss it as too ludicrous.

FineWine

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#2755140 4-Aug-2021 16:47

ezbee:

NSW aged care facilities are being tested by this outbreak.
While the rapid movement is mostly through younger mobile population, workers in aged care are younger, and so are the grandchildren of the oldies.

Might much worse have been saved by there being comprehensive vaccination of people in Aged care, well I think its fair inference even if data is lacking.

Its a great pity that some working in aged care facilities are not vaccinated, despite being also at top of queue.

https://www.theleader.com.au/story/7370921/second-aged-care-worker-tests-positive-to-covid-19/

That is just too stupid and way too selfish. Any health care worker in any setting in any country should be made to provide official documents of proof that they are fully vaccinated. If not then don't come to work ❗️

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

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#2755192 4-Aug-2021 16:51

neb: If you made this stuff up for a TV soap opera, people would dismiss it as too ludicrous.

If social media had been a thing 60 years go, soap operas would need to feature lots of crippled boomers whose parents refused to let them be vaccinated against polio.

DS248

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#2755194 4-Aug-2021 16:56

tieke:

wellygary:

And its clear vaccines work,

according to google

Victoria has had around 21,000 cases ( most in the big outbreak last year) they had over 800 deaths..

NSW has has around 10,000 cases, most this year and the death toll is around 70.....

Although vaccines obviously do work to reduce deaths, they aren't really the major differentiator for those figures - the vast majority of Victoria's deaths (around 680?) were from the outbreak running loose in aged care facilities, rather than just being in the general population as NSW's current outbreak is.

In addition to the important point raised by @tieke, around 5440 cases of the ~10k NSW cases predate the current outbreak, which started in mid-June. At that time there had already been 56 deaths (current total, 72). Hence 16 deaths during this outbreak.

The total number of cases in the current outbreak is around ~4160 but only ~930 of those were from three or more weeks ago.

Those numbers correspond to a crude 3-week lagged CFR of 16/930 = 1.7%. That is not particularly meaningful without accounting for the ages of people infected but it is not low for a general population; eg. rest homes etc populations not disproportionately impacted. And especially given the heavy skew of vaccinations in NSW towards older people.

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#2755196 4-Aug-2021 17:00

When comparing the NSW outbreak to the vic outbreak, note that NSW is doing epic amounts of testing.

Likely the number of undetected cases in vic was much higher than in NSW at the moment.

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#2755198 4-Aug-2021 17:11

FineWine:

ezbee:

NSW aged care facilities are being tested by this outbreak.
While the rapid movement is mostly through younger mobile population, workers in aged care are younger, and so are the grandchildren of the oldies.

Might much worse have been saved by there being comprehensive vaccination of people in Aged care, well I think its fair inference even if data is lacking.

Its a great pity that some working in aged care facilities are not vaccinated, despite being also at top of queue.

https://www.theleader.com.au/story/7370921/second-aged-care-worker-tests-positive-to-covid-19/

That is just too stupid and way too selfish. Any health care worker in any setting in any country should be made to provide official documents of proof that they are fully vaccinated. If not then don't come to work ❗️

This is not the fault of the NSW aged care workers, or due to any reluctance or hesitation on their part.
My parents are in an aged care facility in Sydney, so I have personal knowledge of this.

When the residents received their Pfizer Covid vaccinations in April, the staff were told they were not eligible to be vaccinated, the vaccinations were for residents only: this was the government policy at the time. As it happened, some staff did get vaccinated because the vaccination team had some 'left over' doses that were offered to staff.
Now we are in August, and my parents say that about 30% of the staff are still not vaccinated. Their employer cannot arrange for in-house vaccination, the staff have to find a clinic and get the vaccination themselves. If the only vaccination opportunity is on a work day, they have to take a day's leave. Most of the workers are on immigrant work visas hoping to qualify for residence in a few years, in the mean time they are poorly paid, most do not have cars and have to use public transport.

Don't blame the NSW aged care workers, this is down to the government - either the NSW State or the Commonwealth - vaccination fiasco. All this despite the appalling situation and hundreds of lives lost in the Victorian aged care homes last year.

😡😡😡

Edit: grammar

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#2755216 4-Aug-2021 17:25

When our borders open up I think it will be a disaster because our current vaccines are designed for the earlier strain of Covid not Delta. Since the start of this year I have been watching what's been happening in Israel. Most of their population is vaccinated and yet Delta is still spreading, restrictions are starting to come back and now they have started giving a 3rd booster jab because the protection after the second jap dies off after about 6 months. A short while ago I remember Benjamin Netanyahu saying that he was in discussion with the CEO of Pfizer regarding a updated vaccine to combat the Delta strain, there was a debate in Israel as to weather or not to give a 3rd booster shot or wait for the new Pfizer vaccine, they choose to start 3rd booster shots while they wait because its better nothing.

Everyone in NZ who has been vaccinated or about to get vaccinated in the near future will have to get a 3rd booster shot when the borders open because the protection dies off after about 6 months. Hopefully the 3rd booster shot will be the updated Pfizer vaccine to combat the Delta strain. I won't be getting my Jab until the border opens, it will be pointless getting a Jab now.

In the long term NZ would probably be better off keeping the border shut while at the same build proper MIQ facility buildings, that would also allow for increased MIQ capacity so more people can fly in. The reason why I think the border should stay shut is because even if we manage to have everyone vaccinated with the new Pfizer vaccine a new variant will arise down the track and then there will be a mad rush to acquire a new vaccine to combat the latest variant, and we might find ourselves in a situation where we have an uncontrollable outbreak.

after reading this today https://www.news.com.au/national/politics/australias-covid-plan-could-see-lockdowns-even-after-vaccination-targets-met/news-story/97d85fe58e6b00ca27bb0b723c372eb4 experts say Ausi will probably be having lockdowns for several years due to new variants. Do we really want to have lockdowns like Ausi for years ? Or shell we keep the border shut and build MIQ facilities ?

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#2755220 4-Aug-2021 17:47

Boltigzone:

... I won't be getting my Jab until the border opens, it will be pointless getting a Jab now.

...

And if there is a Delta outbreak here despite our current border settings?

Perhaps X weeks to get your first dose (competing with all the other holdouts), min 3* weeks to second, plus 2 weeks before second dose becomes effective.

That's 5 + X weeks minimum for good protection.

(* current research suggests the vaccine effectiveness improves with increasing gap between the two doses, at least up to 8 - 12 weeks. So a 'rushed' 3 week gap will possibly be less effective?)

Suggest a better strategy would be to get your first dose now, and book for a say 12 week gap before the second.

Will possibly be easier to bring that forward than get your first dose if there is an outbreak? But even if not, at least you will have had one dose and there should be less time until you are fully vaccinated.

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#2755226 4-Aug-2021 18:15

64-96% against delta is not 'doesn't work against delta'

It was never going to stop spread dead. But stop you being if you contract it. And that appears to be working against those who are.

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Fred99

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#2755227 4-Aug-2021 18:36

Boltigzone:

... I won't be getting my Jab until the border opens, it will be pointless getting a Jab now.

...

We'll it's not. And your lack of comprehension of that fact means you could become a killer - apart from the risk you pose to yourself.

The rest of your post makes assorted claims that are just as wrong.

Rikkitic

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#2755232 4-Aug-2021 18:57

Fred99:

We'll it's not. And your lack of comprehension of that fact means you could become a killer - apart from the risk you pose to yourself.

The rest of your post makes assorted claims that are just as wrong.

You can be right and you can be correct. Being right is what you said. Being correct might be adopting a slightly less evangelical tone and calmly explaining in neutral terms why starting vaccination immediately might be advisable. Why keep grinding people with mistaken ideas into the mud? You don't need that kind of affirmation.

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#2755234 4-Aug-2021 19:08

neb: Emmanuel Macron recently did a TikTok session with French youth to try and persuade them to get vaccinated. The outcome: A flurry of conspiracy theories about the logo on the t-shirt he was wearing: Owl play: Macron’s T-shirt logo inspires conspiracy theories
Hours after Emmanuel Macron’s attempt to persuade French youngsters to get vaccinated on Monday, the buzz across the country was less of Covid shots and more of mysterious clothing symbols. [...] Unfortunately, the subsequent flurry of speculation and conspiracy theories suggested some gave more of a hoot about the white owl logo on the T-shirt than about Macron’s message.
If you made this stuff up for a TV soap opera, people would dismiss it as too ludicrous.

scientists have known for a while that the more advanced the civilization the more likely that it will implode. i thought about wars and nuclear weapons. i was wrong

Fred99

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#2755235 4-Aug-2021 19:11

DS248:

(* current research suggests the vaccine effectiveness improves with increasing gap between the two doses, at least up to 8 - 12 weeks. So a 'rushed' 3 week gap will possibly be less effective?)

There's a couple of potential problems with that:

The in vitro data certainly suggests that could be the case, but the timing between doses and time that samples for NAb are taken could make a difference. So if the NAb levels were measured 3 months after first dose, but with groups with a 3 or 10 week gap between doses, then what are you measuring? On one hand those NAbs increase over time after a dose, then they decline...

High or low NAb levels don't necessarily reflect high or low immune response. That's much harder to measure - and I think it's fair to say "at the moment they don't really know".

In hindsight, it was a good idea in the midst of a pandemic to get as many first shots in arms as possible when for example the Pfizer jab offered almost 90% protection after a few weeks - and there was a shortage of vaccine. Seemed like a no-brainer to me. Now with Delta where a single shot may only offer 35% protection - maybe not. As close to full protection ASAP may be a better strategy.

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