2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

1 | ... | 1600 | 1601 | 1602 | 1603 | 1604 | 1605 | 1606 | 1607 | 1608 | 1609 | 1610 | ... | 2429

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2765609 23-Aug-2021 17:28

mattwnz:

vexxxboy:

hope this all works because the Govt. has no other plan if it doesn't.

IMO they should have been working on increasing ICU capacity over this last year. Australias ICU per person is double NZs, which is why they think they now won't need elimination when they reach 70% vaccination. NZs ICU capacity is the second lowest per person in the OECD part from Mexico.

The which is why, is because they don't want to affect businesses. As we have already shown, health first means businesses are open more.

Handle9

11938 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9700

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2765610 23-Aug-2021 17:28

mattwnz:

vexxxboy:

hope this all works because the Govt. has no other plan if it doesn't.

IMO they should have been working on increasing ICU capacity over this last year. Australias ICU per person is double NZs, which is why they think they now won't need elimination when they reach 70% vaccination. NZs ICU capacity is the second lowest per person in the OECD part from Mexico.

They have significantly increased the equipment but you can't magic up the staff. Closed borders and all that

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2765611 23-Aug-2021 17:30

vexxxboy:

hope this all works because the Govt. has no other plan if it doesn't.

IMHO the only plan that works is an early and strict lockdown. It hurts more, but for a lot less time. Taiwan didn't do that as they have a very compliant public, where rules are followed re minor lockdown and masks etc, that worked there too, but Western nations aren't that culture so we need to be told and forced.

Handle9

11938 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9700

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2765612 23-Aug-2021 17:31

tdgeek:

mattwnz:

IMO they should have been working on increasing ICU capacity over this last year. Australias ICU per person is double NZs, which is why they think they now won't need elimination when they reach 70% vaccination. NZs ICU capacity is the second lowest per person in the OECD part from Mexico.

The which is why, is because they don't want to affect businesses. As we have already shown, health first means businesses are open more.

No it's because it's gotten away on them and they know they can't put the genie back in the bottle.

The NZ government has started on the early stages of similar messaging which shows they have similar concerns.

mattwnz

20523 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4798

#2765613 23-Aug-2021 17:32

Handle9:

They have significantly increased the equipment but you can't magic up the staff. Closed borders and all that

I understand one of the problem is the housing crisis and the significant rise in house prices and rental costs, especially in Wellington and Auckland, and nurses etc heading over to Oz or other countries, where they can earn more and living costs lower.

Handle9

11938 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9700

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2765614 23-Aug-2021 17:33

mattwnz:

Handle9:

They have significantly increased the equipment but you can't magic up the staff. Closed borders and all that

I understand one of the problem is the housing crisis and the significant rise in house prices and rental costs, especially in Wellington and Auckland, and nurses etc heading over to Oz or other countries, where they can earn more and living costs lower.

Not everything is caused by the housing crisis.

It takes a long time to train ICU nurses.

Edit: Refer to Derek Chengs article here

Lenovo

Shop now for Lenovo laptops and other devices (affiliate link).

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 10018

#2765615 23-Aug-2021 17:36

Dingbatt:

I see Countdown Supermarkets had a meat supply problem today (no problem at other chains) due to their centralised butchery model. It should be fixed by tomorrow, but the article also had comment from local butchers about them being able to open. I thought that had been sorted out over a year ago, obviously not. If dairies can open using a limited entry/exit strategy, why can’t your local butcher or green grocer? I guess the butcher could sell ice cream, soft drink and cigarettes and call themselves a dairy.

Don't know - but fomite transmission was considered to be a larger risk than perhaps it was, meat processing plants overseas were certainly early workplaces to have large covid outbreaks.

"Dairies" probably an exception because that's the closest option to pick up perishables (bread, milk etc) for many people who don't live in urban centres near a supermarket.

What annoys me somewhat is that our supermarket duopoly has "seized the day" by seemingly taking anything and everything (apart from dated stock) off "special".

OTOH, they are paying staff a 10% bonus to work during lockdown as well as offering some flexibility to workers who for assorted reasons are not available to work normal shifts, which is very good.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 10018

#2765616 23-Aug-2021 17:52

Handle9:

mattwnz:

IMO they should have been working on increasing ICU capacity over this last year. Australias ICU per person is double NZs, which is why they think they now won't need elimination when they reach 70% vaccination. NZs ICU capacity is the second lowest per person in the OECD part from Mexico.

They have significantly increased the equipment but you can't magic up the staff. Closed borders and all that

NSW's ICU "beds per head of population" is IIRC about 30% higher than NZ.

They already have 100 covid patients in ICU, IIRC about >1,000 total beds, I'd guess 50% of those beds are already in use for non-covid cases, though I expect they'll be frantically cancelling elective surgeries and triaging urgent cases very carefully.

The total Covid cases they have so far is about 0.1% of the population. One in a thousand. That's hardly any cases at all. But...

If you do the maths, then while they're in a slightly better position than NZ - they're also completely screwed if they can't hold case numbers down with present lockdowns - which are now (finally) very harsh. They're at ~800 new cases a day, their system cannot cope if new cases in a partly vaccinated population exceed about 2,000 per day. Extrapolate that to NZ, then we'll be swamped if we allow cases to grow to over say 1,300/day.

Complicating matters is that Covid patients in ICU tend to stay there much longer than typical patients. In the end, unless we can roll out vaccinations to the "right" minimum level whatever that is - before this gets out of control - we'll end up turning patients away - triage them and offer ICU level care to those with the best chance of making it.

Handle9

11938 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9700

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2765617 23-Aug-2021 17:55

1300 cases a day being manageable is grossly optimistic at this time of year. Last numbers I saw showed Auckland ICUs averaging 85% of capacity in winter. Peak capacity is worse.

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek
+1 received by user: 164

#2765619 23-Aug-2021 18:01

mattwnz:

vexxxboy:

hope this all works because the Govt. has no other plan if it doesn't.

IMO they should have been working on increasing ICU capacity over this last year. Australias ICU per person is double NZs, which is why they think they now won't need elimination when they reach 70% vaccination. NZs ICU capacity is the second lowest per person in the OECD part from Mexico.

Just get everyone that can, vaccinated. We will have plenty of vaccine.

Vaccinated people don't need hospital or ICU.

vexxxboy

4342 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2081

#2765620 23-Aug-2021 18:12

Buster:

Just get everyone that can, vaccinated. We will have plenty of vaccine.

Vaccinated people don't need hospital or ICU.

that is still months away, what do you do in the mean time if you cant wipe it out. Stay in Lockdown?

Common sense is not as common as you think.

Mighty Ape

Shop now at Mighty Ape (affiliate link).

KellyP

1250 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 115

ID Verified

Subscriber

#2765622 23-Aug-2021 18:19

My local green grocer is open and operating. Not sure why some can't as per reports.

Fred99

13684 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 10018

#2765624 23-Aug-2021 18:30

Handle9:

1300 cases a day being manageable is grossly optimistic at this time of year. Last numbers I saw showed Auckland ICUs averaging 85% of capacity in winter. Peak capacity is worse.

Yup. This is why I get distressed with news articles focusing on "ending lockdowns when vaccination reaches xx%" and "we can't keep doing lockdowns". Sure there's light at the end of the tunnel, but at the moment it the headlight from the covid train.

While both may be true, it's way too early here (and in Aus) to be sending out that message. People want it to be now! That's part of the reason there's been chaos in Australia with idiots protesting, and the dickheads here.

Batman

Mad Scientist
30018 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 6218

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2765625 23-Aug-2021 18:34

James Bond:
My local green grocer is open and operating. Not sure why some can't as per reports.

At this rate the stuff I bought on amazon will arrive before the stuff I bought from Auckland. Or is nz post going to hold on to my packages?

Handle9

11938 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9700

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2765626 23-Aug-2021 18:34

vexxxboy:

Buster:

Just get everyone that can, vaccinated. We will have plenty of vaccine.

Vaccinated people don't need hospital or ICU.

that is still months away, what do you do in the mean time if you cant wipe it out. Stay in Lockdown?

Yes. That is what most of the western world did for the last 12 months.

1 | ... | 1600 | 1601 | 1602 | 1603 | 1604 | 1605 | 1606 | 1607 | 1608 | 1609 | 1610 | ... | 2429