Fred99:
mattwnz: I would take todays big drop in numbers with a grain of salt, because historically less people get tested at the weekend. This is backed up by the official by numbers being tested.
I'd be less pessimistic.
The drop in weekend testing which definitely is a thing is probably mainly from fewer people in the community choosing to get tested because maybe they've got some symptoms etc. But if you've been contacted by MoH because you're a very high risk contact, and they're telling you that you must isolate and get tested, then I doubt you'll be waiting until Monday.
Anyway it's only one day with lower case numbers than the trend, but statistically meaningless for making a predictions about what to expect tomorrow or the next days etc.
The thing I noticed was vaccination numbers also dropped significantly yesterday. But maybe that was just because less places were open to do it?
GR did say that they would start to limit vaccinations if supply started to drop off, to prevent the risk of running out before new stock arrives.