2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2438960 16-Mar-2020 08:03

GV27:

The RBNZ is announcing at 8am and the actual press conference is at 11am.

Clearly designed to get ahead of the market opening. I'm no monetary policy wizard but that suggests a huge potential issue with perceived stability.

Ive read articles about the doom and gloom, and one today that says the opposite. Sam Stubbs I think it was. Apart from logging, fish and tourism (maybe others and certainly support businesses), everything is normal here. The economic downturn will happen, but it wont go bang on Wednesday lunchtime. Id expect the Govt plans to be probably not overly detailed as things will change at any time, for the worse, or maybe not as bad, who knows. The key is targeting funds, and getting processes in place so they can be given relatively quickly, but has to be targeted. We have surplus, we can alter the budget allocations, we can borrow.

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#2438961 16-Mar-2020 08:04

OCR to 0.25% Im not relaly sure what that will do, its low as, now lower as. But if its a help, then good.

GV27

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#2438962 16-Mar-2020 08:06

tdgeek:

OCR to 0.25% Im not relaly sure what that will do, its low as, now lower as. But if its a help, then good.

A huge cut, dragged forward a week early after the RBNZ specifically said they wouldn't do exactly this, pushed out before the markets open doesn't exactly scream business as usual.

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#2438963 16-Mar-2020 08:07

Interesting article by David Farrar regarding the government's handling of this and how it's a political decision as much as a health one.

https://www.kiwiblog.co.nz/2020/03/public_pressure_works.html

Some people have been saying the MOH is running this, the decisions are not the Prime Ministers.

To quote David Farrar:

The larger point I’m trying to make is that those who argue these decisions are based purely on health advice are either naive or dissembling. They have tried to stop any criticism of the Government by saying you can’t have a contrary view unless you are an expert in public health, as the Government is merely following the health professionals.

Well I am not an expert in public health but I am an expert in how Government and political decision making works. And the notion that everything the Government has decided is merely implementing the recommendations of the Director-General of Health and his staff is farcical.

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#2438964 16-Mar-2020 08:09

GV27:
tdgeek:

OCR to 0.25% Im not relaly sure what that will do, its low as, now lower as. But if its a help, then good.

A huge cut, dragged forward a week early after the RBNZ specifically said they wouldn't do exactly this, pushed out before the markets open doesn't exactly scream business as usual.

The NZD:USD rate is the worst it's been for 10 years. The markets are incredibly jittery now but the New Zealand economy's not in a good place right now.

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#2438965 16-Mar-2020 08:09

GV27:

tdgeek:

OCR to 0.25% Im not relaly sure what that will do, its low as, now lower as. But if its a help, then good.

A huge cut, dragged forward a week early after the RBNZ specifically said they wouldn't do exactly this, pushed out before the markets open doesn't exactly scream business as usual.

Hmm - what happened to 'keeping the powder dry"?
I suppose a 'Large Scale Asset Purchase programme of New Zealand government bonds' is something to look forward to.

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#2438966 16-Mar-2020 08:12

GV27: The Reserve Bank of New Zealand has cut its official cash rate by three quarters of a percentage point to a record low 0.25 percent. Mother of god.

Even an out of cycle OCR change is unusual, let alone one of 0.75 basis points.

They have also published re-assurance that the financial system is secure. The fact they need to do this indicates that they think think there are concerns (noting that the RBNZ is primarily speaking to specialists in the banking / finance industry, not the panic prone public this is a big deal)

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2020/03/financial-system-sound-and-reserve-bank-providing-additional-support

https://www.rbnz.govt.nz/news/2020/03/ocr-reduced-to-025-percent-for-next-12-months

Scott3

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#2438967 16-Mar-2020 08:25

Handle9: The NZD:USD rate is the worst it's been for 10 years. The markets are incredibly jittery now but the New Zealand economy's not in a good place right now.

It is the lowest since 2009 (but still some 20% higher than it bottomed out then).

I wouldn't jump to a currency being low as automatically "bad". In bad economic times, a low currency is great to make our exporters more competitive on the global market. Cheaper travel and flat screen's aren't as important to NZ in such circumstances. Oil prices are going to be low anyway.

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#2438969 16-Mar-2020 08:29

Scott3:

They have also published re-assurance that the financial system is secure. The fact they need to do this indicates that they think think there are concerns (noting that the RBNZ is primarily speaking to specialists in the banking / finance industry, not the panic prone public this is a big deal)

They're pre-empting the absolute disaster that's going to play out in the Euro and US markets this coming week.

It'll be magnified by the 'false hope' rally in US markets on Friday - lifted by Trump's confused claims that Google was building a nationwide coronavirus screening website, and that public COVID-19 testing would be available in parking lots at Walmart, Walgreen's and others..

GV27

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#2438970 16-Mar-2020 08:41

Sidestep:

Scott3:

They have also published re-assurance that the financial system is secure. The fact they need to do this indicates that they think think there are concerns (noting that the RBNZ is primarily speaking to specialists in the banking / finance industry, not the panic prone public this is a big deal)

They're pre-empting the absolute disaster that's going to play out in the Euro and US markets this coming week.

It'll be magnified by the 'false hope' rally in US markets on Friday - lifted by Trump's confused claims that Google was building a nationwide coronavirus screening website, and that public COVID-19 testing would be available in parking lots at Walmart, Walgreen's and others..

This is going to be bad.

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#2438972 16-Mar-2020 08:43

mattwnz:

I have found this is the best site with all the graphs you need.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

This is an excellent site too

https://dash-coronavirus-2020.herokuapp.com/

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#2438973 16-Mar-2020 08:50

Air NZ placed itself on trading halt. reduces long haul by 85%

dafman

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#2438975 16-Mar-2020 08:53

The cruise industry has pretty much doubled in the last 10 years. It has a huge carbon footprint, with growing numbers of passengers swamping many tourist spots with limited capability to cope with the pollution etc.

If the number of cruise operators halved as a consequence of this crisis, I'd call that a net gain to the environment.

GV27

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#2438976 16-Mar-2020 08:54

tdgeek:

Air NZ placed itself on trading halt. reduces long haul by 85%

Wouldn't read too much into that - effectively government airlines ltd so unlikely to fail. Qantas in the same boat.

But other tourism providers that don't have that to fall back on... we're not far away from opening trading so we'll see.

This could be one of those days we hear about for a long long time.

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#2438978 16-Mar-2020 08:59

The RB is a generally conservative body.

They are fond of rainy day thinking. Today they have at least recognised that it’s raining!

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