2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2777518 13-Sep-2021 13:49

KiwiBornBloke:

More like “Bondi Beach” … if Auckland get extended again the levels of compliance are going to drop like a lead balloon… lots of people on the local FB communities are saying they’re no longer willing to “take it up the wazoo” for the so-called team of 5 million.

Even really silly things like Non Aucklanders gloating about access to their takeaway of choice is now perceived as ‘inciting’ them. I’m a law abiding man too, but at _some_ point even a ‘good’ man will only take so much?

People who incite are just as bad as those the flout. There is only one recipe, lockdown. If you don't, then it will continue on and on and on

wellygary

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#2777519 13-Sep-2021 13:50

tdgeek:

True, but if you got a test surely you would stay at home until it was negative? If you gave it to the dairy, thats problematic too.

I'm not talking about those are waiting for a result,

But rather contacts of a case doing stuff before they get contacted by tracers to tell them they are a contact and then they subsequently test positive....

tdgeek

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#2777520 13-Sep-2021 13:54

wellygary:

I'm not talking about those are waiting for a result,

But rather contacts of a case doing stuff before they get contacted by tracers to tell them they are a contact and then they subsequently test positive....

Ah, ok

Fred99

13684 posts

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#2777521 13-Sep-2021 13:54

KrazyKid:

Out of the 17 subclusters 9 are epidemiologically unlinked.

No reason to give up now, overwhelm the hospitals and delay any routine medical surgery as the wards fill up will covid cases.

When they say epidemiologically unlinked I presume they mean by contact or LOI tracing?
(ie not genomically linked - which can give an approximation of how many cycles of transmission occurred - or if it was seeded by a separate escape from MIQ etc).

There's no way Auckland (or NZ) is "opening up" or easing lockdowns now - for the reasons you state. Assuming that these clusters are still mainly in the Pacific community, then the initial exponential growth will be a damned site worse than what happened in NSW (and probably Melbourne which has crossed the point of no return). Vaccination rates are merely okay in that community, but large households including probably many essential workers is a tinderbox, and it's no secret that the population is particularly vulnerable to severe outcomes.

So it's either nail it now, or prepare for a very grim couple of months - at least.

GV27

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#2777522 13-Sep-2021 13:55

KiwiBornBloke:

No, as a double vaccined individual I’m already as “protected” as I can ever be, in Auckland specifically it’s just a walk in process now, only the really at risk (who will ALWAYS be so) and those who refuse (for whatever reason) are “vulnerable”

Time to move on is now?

You do realise that the earliest some could get bookings when Group 4 opened was November, right?

Great for you, you got vaccinated, but I'm willing to guess you had priority over the young people that Delta seems to be affecting disproportionately, simply because they haven't had the same access to vaccines as anyone else.

I mean people are used to throwing the younger generations under the bus when it comes to things like housing and superannuation, but a literal sacrifice might be a bit much eh.

JPNZ

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#2777523 13-Sep-2021 14:02

Fred99:

So it's either nail it now, or prepare for a very grim couple of months - at least.

My thoughts as well, but to "nail it" there may be a need for less "essential services", higher levels of testing or things along those lines. L4 so far hasn't even quashed Delta to a day of single digit new cases in 4 weeks. Its not magically going to get to zero under current L4 IMHO.

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wellygary

8312 posts

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#2777524 13-Sep-2021 14:03

GV27:

KiwiBornBloke:

No, as a double vaccined individual I’m already as “protected” as I can ever be, in Auckland specifically it’s just a walk in process now, only the really at risk (who will ALWAYS be so) and those who refuse (for whatever reason) are “vulnerable”

Time to move on is now?

You do realise that the earliest some could get bookings when Group 4 opened was November, right?

Yeah, although they should be encouraged to bring their bookings forward now that there is surge" vaccinating going on esp in Auckland.

There is certainly more slots now...

https://vaxx.nz/?lat=-36.95458003756592&lng=174.85868582411774&placeName=Otara

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duckDecoy

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#2777527 13-Sep-2021 14:05

I'm starting to see a definite lockdown fatigue vibe now around the place, and I feel the governments messaging has a lot to do with it (no doubt unintentionally).

The governments messaging for the last little while has effectively been get a jab, anyone who wants one can get a jab, we've got the vaccines so please get vaccinated, no excuses not to. So the rumblings I am getting now are people saying anyone not vaccinated didn't move fast enough, anyone not vaccinated has made that choice and so we shouldn't be concerned about them, they've had long enough.

Everyone here knows that isn't quite the case, case in point my partner booked the second level 4 opened up and she could make an appointment, and the earliest we got was last Friday. Things did move on and open up after that (e.g. south auckland drive in) but at the time Sept was all we got. And now we've got a 6 week wait for jab number two.

I'd like to see the government stress that while the vaccines are available we still have to get through BOTH jabs, and that will take time so we have to hold fast for a bit longer yet.

DS248

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#2777528 13-Sep-2021 14:07

tdgeek:

wellygary:

...

While the 33 cases today is a bad headline, all bar one are already linked, and that is one who visited middlemore on Sat and now has a small household subcluster of 7 all testing positive....

...

...

And if all bar one is linked, that doesn't tell us if they were infectious in the community, it just means a cluster is still spreading but at least not a new cluster?

Agree. Would have hoped more info on the number infectious in the community would have been released. Would be concerning if in same proportion as the previous day.

Also, still appears to be no info on results from patients affected by the recent hospital exposures. Or have I missed something?

ajobbins

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#2777534 13-Sep-2021 14:09

JPNZ:

My thoughts as well, but to "nail it" there may be a need for less "essential services", higher levels of testing or things along those lines. L4 so far hasn't even quashed Delta to a day of single digit new cases in 4 weeks. Its not magically going to get to zero under current L4 IMHO.

The daily number itself is less important than how many people have been out in the community. You could have dozens of cases every day, but if they are all already isolating (a lot of cases come from household spread) then, after some days you can have a level of confidence it's not spreading in the community and can change settings with less risk.

That number has always been the one here in Oz that they have focused on. We failed to get it under control this time in VIC and NSW, but in previous outbreaks that number has been important in decision making. You'd want to see a run of days with zero in the community rather than zero cases at all before changing alert levels - probably at least 7 but 14 would be safer.

There seems to be a focus on unlinked vs. linked cases, which is interesting/useful to some degree - but you can still link 100% of cases every day but if even a small number of those had any time out in the community infectious then you still have big risks.

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DS248

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#2777535 13-Sep-2021 14:09

C19 test numbers for yesterday not pretty either. Just 8,657 across the country

Oblivian

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#2777550 13-Sep-2021 14:26

The only messages that will help now..

These people did /this/ at /this time/location/ which caused infection when it was not expected or could have been prevented.

To get out of lockdown. This cannot happen and here is how you prevent...
And you can thank these people and those who continue until they do not.

Time for softly is over if you want to avoid fatigue.

As we have seen with Gladys. 'please do the right thing, there are people breaking the rules' doesn't target the right group.

mattwnz

20141 posts

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#2777552 13-Sep-2021 14:32

Some of the posts are quite alarmist. The DG did say in Sunday that the outbreak is contained. 7 of this number are from one household, which is a high number of people living in a house compared to NZs average. Have they provided a map this time showing where across Auckland the cases are happening, and where most cases are concentrated?

I wouldn't be surprised to see them implement a Delta 4 lockdown in Auckland with some more restrictions. This lockdown in Auckland doesn't seem as tough as the first lockdown. What part of stay at home don't people understand?

GV27

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#2777553 13-Sep-2021 14:32

Lots of traffic on the roads in Massey, unmasked walkers, etc. I've posted about Massey and lockdown discipline before.

Massey is also a surveillance suburb, but there haven't been any LOIs in the North West for almost two weeks now.

Once it gets into the groups of people the police helicopter is out keeping an eye on multiple times a night, that's it. It's not realistic to pretend like these people are going to follow social distancing rules, mask up in public, sign in places and avoid gathering where they shouldn't be gathering.

Kindness isn't going to cut it, and by the time we've worked up the stones to be blunt about it, it could well be endemic.

tdgeek

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#2777571 13-Sep-2021 14:38

mattwnz:

Some of the posts are quite alarmist. The DG did say in Sunday that the outbreak is contained. 7 of this number are from one household, which is a high number of people living in a house compared to NZs average. Have they provided a map this time showing where across Auckland the cases are happening, and where most cases are concentrated?

40% of yesterdays cases were infectious in the community isn't alarmist

Neither is that tests in AKL have plummeted.

Nor that annecdotally from here, compliancy isnt holding up

Ive seen all this before but that was in another newspaper in another land, not so far away...

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