2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2794051 12-Oct-2021 15:58

ajobbins:

Yes, I think the current setting is about right - maybe even a little loose. But you can't keep it at that level for many months or years and keep compliance. It's now really a race between getting people vaccinated and the protection that brings before they start breaking the rules anyway (more than is already occurring)

Again I agree, but once Auck dropped to lvl 3 from what felt like lvl 3.5 (4) and case numbers were at 8, I think compliance became an inconsequential term. Should have just kept us at 4 and eliminated, whilst getting a late vax and ICU roll out plan going, rather than dithering levels of 3 which are just spreading the virus whilst confusing ppl as to what the actual plan is.

I think financially we had 1 shot at elimination of Delta, given how much in debt we are now, I think just flippantly giving up on that plan could see some real economic impacts and like you say, growing sentiment of breaking rules anyway.

Much like ppl who are not in Auck really do not know how it was or is here, Im not sure if these sentiments are as common place as feeling "rebellion" as such.

South Islanders' frustrations growing as it remains Covid-free (msn.com)

Reanalyse

381 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2794052 12-Oct-2021 15:58

ajobbins:

I agree. Missing family not in NZ is a big one. Fatigue wise I think Auck had another 6 weeks of lvl 4 in it, if need be, people understood why it was needed, now they just seem confused as to why the Govt is making any decisions.

Sorry, I live in Auckland, and I don't think fatigue wise we had another 6 weeks of level 4 left in us. Even the current level 3.1 is hard, especially for family kept away from work, and all the flouters making a mockery of the lockdown. I feel that the Government had to do something, small as it was, to relieve the frustration and will continue to have to do so at least every couple of weeks. Lack of apparent progress is a morale killer.

But if you are not in Auckland "x" more weeks of restrictions to Aucklanders (especially those playing by the rules and requests) probably does not look like a great deal. It is !

Handle9

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#2794054 12-Oct-2021 16:00

PolicyGuy:
cddt:

Yes, but it doesn't seem like there has been much communication about this. The same goes for offices and other workplaces - all those airtight buildings which increase energy efficiency are going to be germ incubators!

There are many mitigations available for those 'airtight buildings'.
One is to install HEPA filters in the return air duct just before the mixer, this will ensure that any virus being breathed out by an infected worker is filtered out. These are of course fairly useless unless there is regular and frequent maintenance of the filter packs
Another is to install UV sterilisers in the air flow immediately downstream of the heating/cooling air handlers, to kill off any airborne 'nasties'

Both these measures are by no means new or bleeding-edge, they are established technologies.
In NZ building owners and developers have by and large not seen the need to incorporate such things, except in hospital operating theatres and such-like places where they are explicitly in the specification

Neither have the vast majority of building owners internationally. UV in isn’t practical in most cases and is a very significant safety risk. One of the largest buildings in NZ retrofitted UV to its AHU system some years ago. It was permanently switched off due to the safety risks after a nasty burn incident.

trig42

5809 posts

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#2794056 12-Oct-2021 16:12

Reanalyse:

ajobbins:

I agree. Missing family not in NZ is a big one. Fatigue wise I think Auck had another 6 weeks of lvl 4 in it, if need be, people understood why it was needed, now they just seem confused as to why the Govt is making any decisions.

Sorry, I live in Auckland, and I don't think fatigue wise we had another 6 weeks of level 4 left in us. Even the current level 3.1 is hard, especially for family kept away from work, and all the flouters making a mockery of the lockdown. I feel that the Government had to do something, small as it was, to relieve the frustration and will continue to have to do so at least every couple of weeks. Lack of apparent progress is a morale killer.

But if you are not in Auckland "x" more weeks of restrictions to Aucklanders (especially those playing by the rules and requests) probably does not look like a great deal. It is !

Totally agree.

Those of you on here saying Auckland should just do more and more weeks locked down should come and do it for us.

I am sick of it.

I want to go visit my parents, the kids and the grandkids, who all live out of Auckland.

I want to see my workmates in something other than a Zoom call.

I want to go to Pub Quiz.

I've done the right thing all the way through, and I'd wager that even if we did another 4-6 weeeks at level 4 (starting from when we went to L3), we still wouldn't be at zero as thos people that are spreading it are just doing what they want anyway. There is probably only a tiny percentage of them (maybe a hundred people) and they have held 1.6m people at ransom and killed their social lives, their businesses and are seriously damaging our mental health.

Chances of me fully complying with another 6 weeks locked down = ~zero. Whats the point? It seesm that enought people aren't doing it to make any of us doing it worthwhile.

Get the jab, or stay home. It's coming, and it will make some people sick (though, most people, vaxxed or not who get it may not even know they've got it).

/rant

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2794058 12-Oct-2021 16:15

ajobbins:

While some of Auckland might have been able to go on at L4, the demographic where the virus was spreading are some of the most underprivileged and marginalised. Lockdowns hit them the hardest - people who are already struggling to survive, and taking away their work without significant support would never, in my opinion, have resulted in the compliance needed to let it die out.

The numbers were stable, at best, under L4 for weeks. If it was going to fizzle out it would have, but more than likely it was already ramping up by the time the govt made the decision - and they would have known that.

Im not sure if lvl3 allows them to access work any more than others though does it? I do agree re the cost, but the cost of supporting folk is still there and would that cost outweigh keeping Auck in lvl4 for 2-4 more weeks and then a fully opened Auckland vs a lvl 3 Auck? Regardless, as many others have said, certain areas really needed door to door and other tactics to get the vax numbers and education on importance up, that should have happened under lvl4, but didnt, and to my knowledge still hasnt.

The issue seemed to be mass gatherings and large families per house type situations. The cost of addressing the issue and potentially getting delta eliminated made much more sense than this dithering level 3 which people seem to be more tired of than they were lvl 4.

I guess that is why Im asking for some precise economic modelling on keeping certain demographics and other Aucklanders supported for another 2-4 weeks with the likelihood of elimination, vs the ongoing cost of the current lvl 3 with consessions which is clearly putting elimination out the back door with the R number growing rapidly, what will the total cost of giving up on elimination be, vs the cost of remaining in lvl 4 for another 2-4 weeks (another week or so from now).

I think the lack of explanation from the Govt has always been their weakest point, way before Delta. It feels like this is the largest reason for growing discontent even though ppl have some minor freedoms. Possibly also the anger at why we put up with lvl 4 for so long just to give up on the plan when it was about to work.

vexxxboy

4243 posts

Uber Geek

#2794078 12-Oct-2021 16:23

i think the most important thing out of todays press conference was Of the 158 people in hospital since the start of the Delta outbreak, only three people were fully vaccinated.

Get vaccinated people .

Common sense is not as common as you think.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2794079 12-Oct-2021 16:25

Reanalyse:

Sorry, I live in Auckland, and I don't think fatigue wise we had another 6 weeks of level 4 left in us. Even the current level 3.1 is hard, especially for family kept away from work, and all the flouters making a mockery of the lockdown.

Don't be sorry, it hasn't been easy. And yes the flouters did and continue to, make it harder on us trying to see a way through this.

I believe there needed to be more financial support. If we do go back into lvl4 (which the govt wisely hasnt taken off the table), that surely is a given..... My question was simply, was the cost of Auckland in lvl 4 to eliminate the virus for 2-4 more weeks, greater than the cost of this lvl3 which has no definitive end dates, somehwere, around 90-95% vaxx is the best guess.

For my family, the greatest cost is not being able to see other family, which will continue to be the case for some time yet.

Re flouters, my main thing there is, there feels like zero consequences, which makes it even more frustrating for us trying to do the right thing. Im in hospital watching people pull there masks below their nose once they get past the front doors, its not just the big flouting thats frustrating either.

vexxxboy:

i think the most important thing out of todays press conference was Of the 158 people in hospital since the start of the Delta outbreak, only three people were fully vaccinated.

This is where the door to door education drive in certain areas of Auckland should have occured when we were in lvl 4. We can still reach those people. But its hard to put a number on those who simply wont get vaxxd no matter how much you show them figures like the CDC's, unvxd people are 25x more likely to require hospitilisation and or die. That number along with the one you quoted, simply wont sway some people, do we get to 87% signed up to or completed vaxx and this undefined target be given up on, or do they continue to keep Auck in lvl3 well passed xmas etc? None the less, the daily vaxx numbers eerily are matching the daily case median number chart. So hopefully, a big enough number of those vaxx numbers are new/1st dose bookings etc, with 82% having had first dose and now 84% booked, a 2% rise in about a week from memory.

The key question is, will we just fully open up once xyz vaxx numbers, or will we keep boundaries and try to contain the vaxx numbers in those Cities/Towns effected. With the moving goal posts, 3 stages are there, toward "living with it". I understand why the Govt would not want to put definitive figures earlier, but the closer we get to 90%, I think these are the types of things people will be demanding.

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wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2794081 12-Oct-2021 16:26

trig42:

Totally agree.

Those of you on here saying Auckland should just do more and more weeks locked down should come and do it for us.

I am sick of it.

/rant

Hang in there, there are probably only 2 more weeks at the most of really hard stuff...

AKs vax numbers are 64% full and 87 1st... 2nd dose is rising about 11% a week, and first dose 2% a week.. with a bit of a tail wind from Saturday's "vaxathon" AK should hit 75% full next week and 90% first, and then get near 85% fully by Labour weekend,

I can see schools going back after the long weekend, + the govt moving to the next level to allow retail and public spaces like pools/library etc

BUT unless case numbers decline the border with the rest of NZ will be up until we up the vax rates in the rest of the country....

wellygary

8312 posts

Uber Geek

#2794086 12-Oct-2021 16:34

vexxxboy:

i think the most important thing out of todays press conference was Of the 158 people in hospital since the start of the Delta outbreak, only three people were fully vaccinated.

Get vaccinated people .

Yeah, but they imply they should have been vaccinated, but it simply wasn't possible for them to be fully vaccinated

This was the rollout...

40-plus started Wednesday, August 18
30-plus on Wednesday, August 25
and all ages could get jabbed from September 1

Also remember, that on 12th the dose time went to 6 weeks...

So those 40-50 could only be fully vaccinated from 29th Sept, 30 -40 from 6th October, and under 30s from tomorrow.... and those dates assume everyone in each cohort getting their first jab on the opening day (which was impossible)

Handle9

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#2794087 12-Oct-2021 16:39

trig42:
I am sick of it.

I want to go visit my parents, the kids and the grandkids, who all live out of Auckland.

I want to see my workmates in something other than a Zoom call.

Welcome to the club. You’re describing the last 18 months of expat life.

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2794090 12-Oct-2021 16:43

wellygary:

This was the rollout...

40-plus started Wednesday, August 18
30-plus on Wednesday, August 25
and all ages could get jabbed from September 1

Also remember, that on 12th the dose time went to 6 weeks...

So those 40-50 could only be fully vaccinated from 29th Sept, 30 -40 from 6th October, and under 30s from tomorrow.... and those dates assume everyone in each cohort getting their first jab on the opening day (which was impossible)

Well articulated, I mean just good to put some reality behind this "roll out". It most definitely could have been described as tardy at best, along with the border not shutting due to the NSW delta outbreak, along with the tardyness of potential ICU issues, the tardyness of having a defined plan long before a couple of weeks ago and on the list goes. It felt like this Govt was just waiting for it to happen, rather than seeing what was going on around the world and planning back when we saw what Delta did to Ind, which to be fair is a very kiwi thing due to our isolation.

Regardless, mistakes teach lessons (although one would hope these sort wouldnt occur at the highest levl) and hopefully the positives are still there for further booster roll outs etc. Will be interesting to see re Moderna's prediction about mid next year with poor nations all having access to what will be from what I gather a Delta variant based vax. I do hope our booster roll out, especially given the Pfizer full immu wane vs Moderna, will include a delta based booster (that is if delta is the current head variant).

When will our frontline staff, if they havnt already, begin to get boosters? its worrying the immu wane of Pfizer, of course its nice knowing you are still much less likely to require ICU or die regardless. Will be good once they get down pat if the reason Moderna's wane is so much less due to an initial higher viral load in the vaccine or if its due to another reasoning and if pfizer will follow suit. Was always going to be a big chase between the big pharmas.

Is there any modelling on the expected ICU impact and our actual current capability per district health board?

Handle9:

Welcome to the club. You’re describing the last 18 months of expat life.

hear hear, although for us, its in reverse, as they all overseas. but I do miss being able to drive up north or to coro for some camping/diving etc. but nothing in comparison to missing family.

ajobbins

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#2794104 12-Oct-2021 17:12

Reanalyse:

ajobbins:

I agree. Missing family not in NZ is a big one. Fatigue wise I think Auck had another 6 weeks of lvl 4 in it, if need be, people understood why it was needed, now they just seem confused as to why the Govt is making any decisions.

Sorry, I live in Auckland, and I don't think fatigue wise we had another 6 weeks of level 4 left in us. Even the current level 3.1 is hard, especially for family kept away from work, and all the flouters making a mockery of the lockdown. I feel that the Government had to do something, small as it was, to relieve the frustration and will continue to have to do so at least every couple of weeks. Lack of apparent progress is a morale killer.

But if you are not in Auckland "x" more weeks of restrictions to Aucklanders (especially those playing by the rules and requests) probably does not look like a great deal. It is !

FYI - this is a misquote. The quoted text with my name actually came from TeaLeaf.

I agree with your comments Reanalyse and disagree that keeping Auckland at L4 was viable

Twitter: ajobbins

TeaLeaf

6325 posts

Uber Geek

#2794105 12-Oct-2021 17:14

So one of my questions was around how they expect to trace cases given the ever increasing numbers due to moving to lvl 3. I think if this is the current situation, contact tracing is either going to have to employ other means, or, the Govt had taken this into account when it moved from single digits a couple of weeks back and expected to give up on it perhaps. If unlinked cases grow to 3/4 and we see cases in the 100s daily, what hope do they have?

"The seven-day moving average of case numbers is in the upper-30s, double what it was two weeks ago, and more than half of Monday's reported cases had no known epidemiological link to previous confirmed infections."
Economist says timing of Delta outbreak couldn't be worse for the economy (msn.com)

It is getting to the point it seems, where they give up on any hope of containment/tracing, or as some "experts" in the news have suggested the possibility of moving back to lvl4. Whilst I think giving up on lvl4 too early was a big mistake, I also do not know how we could withstand another lvl4. Unless it was a lvl5 where they had zero tolerance for being on the road, ie people needed a grocery/medication booking system where they could show proof that is what they were doing on the road. i just can't see it happening.

How serious is the discontent in the south? Stats do not show them as anti vaxx? So really, unless they want to somehow become their own nation (lols), I do not feel they have a lot to worry about provided the ICU plan is kicking in already.....

ajobbins:

FYI - this is a misquote. The quoted text with my name actually came from TeaLeaf.

I agree with your comments Reanalyse and disagree that keeping Auckland at L4 was viable

He knows as I requoted it and offered my shared sentiments on some of his points. 🙄

ajobbins

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#2794106 12-Oct-2021 17:15

Handle9:
trig42:

I am sick of it.

I want to go visit my parents, the kids and the grandkids, who all live out of Auckland.

I want to see my workmates in something other than a Zoom call.

Welcome to the club. You’re describing the last 18 months of expat life.

I'm in Melbourne. Haven't seen my family in NZ since Jan 2020. My parents haven't seen my son since he was 8 months old (Now 2.5) and are yet to meet my 4 month old daughter. I haven't met my 1.5 year old nephew.

I missed my grandfathers funeral and my wife missed her grandmothers. We are going to miss her brothers wedding.

It sucks.

Twitter: ajobbins

Handle9

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#2794109 12-Oct-2021 17:23

ajobbins:
Handle9:

Welcome to the club. You’re describing the last 18 months of expat life.

I'm in Melbourne. Haven't seen my family in NZ since Jan 2020. My parents haven't seen my son since he was 8 months old (Now 2.5) and are yet to meet my 4 month old daughter. I haven't met my 1.5 year old nephew.

I missed my grandfathers funeral and my wife missed her grandmothers. We are going to miss her brothers wedding.

It sucks.

It’s been since August 2019 for us. My 9 year old asks most weeks when we can go and see her grandparents. We were talking about where she wants to go for Christmas this year and she said “home.”

It is what it is.

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