2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2794112 12-Oct-2021 17:25

ajobbins:

I'm in Melbourne. Haven't seen my family in NZ since Jan 2020. My parents haven't seen my son since he was 8 months old (Now 2.5) and are yet to meet my 4 month old daughter. I haven't met my 1.5 year old nephew.

I missed my grandfathers funeral and my wife missed her grandmothers. We are going to miss her brothers wedding.

It sucks.

Yep it does. My biggest concern is having elderly people travel to NZ to visit us. But likewise Im not so keen on a stop over in thailand or the such until the pandemic is under some form of control. I know sisters and young ones wont come here.

I lost a parent, that suckd. Not something even tech could help with :-(

I presume your parents have had access to skype or similar at least? Not the same as in person of course. Imagine the span flu, people just died without any of this, ie went to war, survived that, but died on the boat home etc. With all its flaws, technology at least has provided us some comfort. Im sure your parents will get to see the little ones a few months after xmas, mid next year at latest going on what some companies like Moderna are throwing out there for when it will be under "control"/endemically controlled.

Handle9:

It’s been since August 2019 for us. My 9 year old asks most weeks when we can go and see her grandparents. We were talking about where she wants to go for Christmas this year and she said “home.”

It is what it is.

I know from living half of my life abroad, there are some things aside from family, that are just intrinsic. Smells, flora, fauna, etc. Im sure even for children these things feel different abroad.

Yep, is what it is, but not easy nonetheless. Hopefully as above it will be months rather than years. Cant wait to see how this self iso pilot goes. But seems the numbers were a little low to be of large scale value, but not a statistician.

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#2794113 12-Oct-2021 17:29

Pfizer moderna AZ work. At least initially.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/11/french-study-vaccines-cut-covid-deaths

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#2794116 12-Oct-2021 17:35

TeaLeaf:

Yep it does. My biggest concern is having elderly people travel to NZ to visit us. But likewise Im not so keen on a stop over in thailand or the such until the pandemic is under some form of control. I know sisters and young ones wont come here.

I lost a parent, that suckd. Not something even tech could help with :-(

I presume your parents have had access to skype or similar at least? Not the same as in person of course. Imagine the span flu, people just died without any of this, ie went to war, survived that, but died on the boat home etc. With all its flaws, technology at least has provided us some comfort. Im sure your parents will get to see the little ones a few months after xmas, mid next year at latest going on what some companies like Moderna are throwing out there for when it will be under "control"/endemically controlled.

Yeah, we have FaceTime, Zoom etc but as you know, it's not the same. I honestly don't think either my wife or I properly grieved the loss of our respective grandparents last year. Attending my grandfather's funeral over Zoom from my office at home way surreal and strange. I think there is major grieving still to come.

The one good thing we did have is my wife's parents were able to be here when our daughter was born in June. They managed to get over just before Melbourne had a few cases, and managed to get back to Auckland just before they closed the bubble. It was just an amazing time for our 2 year old, who really only knew them via FaceTime before that (last time we were all together he was too young to understand much) and he misses them so much. Even 3 months on, he will tell us off if we sit in 'Opa's chair' at the dinner table).

But we follow the rules, we're vaccinated and hopefully one day soon there will be a way for us to reconnect in person. We know what's at stake but it doesn't suck any less. I'd pay for an MIQ spot if I could actually get one.

Twitter: ajobbins

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#2794121 12-Oct-2021 17:38

Batman: Pfizer moderna AZ work. At least initially.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/oct/11/french-study-vaccines-cut-covid-deaths

Nice. This is to some extent more important than full immunisation or Moderna's wane being a lot better (less). The CDC quotes un vaxxd 25x more likely of serious illness or death, which is more like 96% am I wrong? In saying that, its different data and different Vax's. Also this study was of just over 50s.

I will chase up the study on the reason for Moderna having such a high immunisation efficacy (thought to be due to being a much higher viral load/dose) and much less immunisation wane.

But regardless, being protected from serious on going illness and or death for me, along with wearing a mask which will also should dampen the viral load, should see most of us relatively safe, moving into the "kiving with covid" phase....

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#2794124 12-Oct-2021 17:43

TeaLeaf:

hear hear, although for us, its in reverse, as they all overseas. but I do miss being able to drive up north or to coro for some camping/diving etc. but nothing in comparison to missing family.

No less frustrating when they live within a half-hour drive and you're not allowed to see them either. I feel like this is often missing from the ex-pat argument - the people here are the ones copping these lockdowns so there's a working NZ for them to come back to.

TeaLeaf

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#2794126 12-Oct-2021 17:53

ajobbins:

Even 3 months on, he will tell us off if we sit in 'Opa's chair' at the dinner table).

I'd pay for an MIQ spot if I could actually get one.

Yeah losing grandparents, is often hard (for some not so much, depends on relative closeness obviously), when my last one passed it pulled my life apart as I was alone and overseas and unable to return in time. But nothing trains you for the depression that follows parents. Siblings can be hard also, depends again on how relatively close we are of course.

Ha, thats too cute. I presume Germanic dialect, dutch perhaps? English being grand pa etc. Well 4000yrs ago germanic (or whatever it German was called prior to Romanisation) was the main language of all continental europe.

I think by the time this case study on self isolation is done, we will probably have borders open to countries of whom use an acceptble vaccination to the NZ Govt etc. I think it will be well before the entire world has been handed enough vaccines for all. My guess would be around end of first quarter next year, dont quote me haha. But given NZs ties to Aus, it would make sense Australia would be the first country we open to again, provided the vax is shown to help. Although by that stage I think it would be verging on endemic anyway with the exponential infection rate of Delta :-)

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#2794127 12-Oct-2021 17:54

TeaLeaf:

I agree. Missing family not in NZ is a big one. Fatigure wise I think Auck had another 6 weeks of lvl 4 in it, if need be, people understood why it was needed, now they just seem confused as to why the Govt is making any decisions.

The Govt is playing chicken now and banking on Vax numbers (which given how that has played out in other high vaxxd countries is kinda odd given they had the chance to eliminate again), of which they havnt confirmed an exact figure.

IMO, they should have kept Auck at lvl4, which was clearly trending down, to its lowest point of 8, I felt another 2-4 weeks of it and we would have likely had the virus tracing under control. Instead the Govt about faced with what seemed a pointless lvl 3 and a further pointless lvl3 with a few less restrictions, which clearly has just raised numbers again. If the Govt was so confident it had it under control, to drop Auck from Lvl4 to 3 then a 2.5 of sorts, then perhaps Auck to lvl 2 is not off the cards (which we clearly arent ready for and wont be imo regardless of its moving targets, but hey, logic doesnt seem to be what is making the decisions at the moment).

What was the economic boost of dropping Auck from alert lvl 4 to 3 with concessions, for another couple of months potentially, vs having had Aucklands outbreak under control by now potentially by keeping Auck at 4 (which felt like 3.5)? We do not get a lot of economic modelling out of the Govt, or why it decided, just as it looked like the Outbreak was about to be under control they gave up on it and dropped Auck to lvl3. Id just like some actual analysis on the cost of dumping the plan when it was working vs semi opening Auck. Was the small benefit to the economy worth it, given how close we were? And knowing that would happen, if the decision to about face and dump the lvl 4 plan was not due to political pressure, and it it wasnt an economic one, then why?

Clearly lvl4 again is not off the cards either, if the Govt cannot get a grip on the outbreak and the rising R number truly goes exponential. But I suspect they will keep Auck and now the other towns in supposed Lvl3, in limbo until they "think" the vaccination number is high enough for NZ's fairly under resourced health system to handle the vast numbers of beds and staff that are going to be required. Personally I do not know why they are so confident, going off the back of what has happened overseas.

You missed a few crucial points. When AKL cases grew that was not Level 3. It takes time for Level 3 effects to result in cases.

Another2-4 weeks of Level 4 gets it under control? Possibly. But while most of the 1.7M are complying some aren't and they are invariably unvaccinated. If the areas of concern are not every street of Auckland who do you penalise?

You need to focus on who is helping the fight against Covid and who isnt, but if you choose to bag the Govt (its actually MoH), then fine

The bottom line is its a fight against spread vs Delta. The latter is a known quantity, the former we can improve. But if I get two alerts today that one flew to Queenstown and one went to Welly, both without exemption, I give up. As I did last week here.

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#2794129 12-Oct-2021 17:57

TeaLeaf:

The vaxathon? Reminds me of the good old days of how to squeeze more money out of folks, Telethons haha.

The double vaxxed number is rising fast, as was expected, but the single vax not so much. I think they will be hard pressed to hit 90%+ by Xmas, given the hardest folk are yet to persuaded, those that feel it doesnt effect them or are simply anti vaxx. The last 2 weeks have been pleasing to see the single vax grow by 4%, perhaps whatever is planned this weekend might at least persuade some of those not interested in a Vax.

What I bolded, Seriously?

Who is "they" I think they will be hard pressed to hit 90%+ by Xmas

tdgeek

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#2794130 12-Oct-2021 17:59

ajobbins:

Fred99:

Given limited hospital / ICU beds, current rate of vaccination, and that while experts might not agree whether present restrictions should be eased or tightened - but by not very much - then I think we're at about the right setting for now. But in a month or even a week - who knows what the situation will be?

Yes, I think the current setting is about right - maybe even a little loose. But you can't keep it at that level for many months or years and keep compliance. It's now really a race between getting people vaccinated and the protection that brings before they start breaking the rules anyway (more than is already occurring)

Yep

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#2794132 12-Oct-2021 18:02

wellygary:

The Vaccine Cert is going to be a bust on arrival and will pretty much only get used for Concerts and Stadium events..

The idea that you will need it to go to the pub will vanish as vax rates get high, from the 58% fully now to 88% fully is around 1.2 m doses,

@40K 2nd doses per day ( it will likely be higher) that's 30 days, i.e mid November.... so whether pubs and retail will look to use it for less than a month is highly debatable....

NSW are going to abandon their certificate privilege on 1 Dec, when they expect their full vax rates to hit 90% of eligib pop....

If we get to 88% fully, job done (almost) I agree with you, but the Vax cert may in fact push laggards to get vaxxed. Either way, 2+2=4!

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#2794133 12-Oct-2021 18:02

Someone was looking at offering jab with kfc

So happens you get the jab and take proof, they're giving away popcorn Chicken

The comments to that announcement show jabbing at kfc still wouldn't shift many :)

And hes not joking. There is a Telethon show with the tracker being watched and initiatives live around the country to try get people out to get on tv and jabbed..

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#2794136 12-Oct-2021 18:05

trig42:

Totally agree.

Those of you on here saying Auckland should just do more and more weeks locked down should come and do it for us.

I am sick of it.

I want to go visit my parents, the kids and the grandkids, who all live out of Auckland.

I want to see my workmates in something other than a Zoom call.

I want to go to Pub Quiz.

I've done the right thing all the way through, and I'd wager that even if we did another 4-6 weeeks at level 4 (starting from when we went to L3), we still wouldn't be at zero as thos people that are spreading it are just doing what they want anyway. There is probably only a tiny percentage of them (maybe a hundred people) and they have held 1.6m people at ransom and killed their social lives, their businesses and are seriously damaging our mental health.

Chances of me fully complying with another 6 weeks locked down = ~zero. Whats the point? It seesm that enought people aren't doing it to make any of us doing it worthwhile.

Get the jab, or stay home. It's coming, and it will make some people sick (though, most people, vaxxed or not who get it may not even know they've got it).

/rant

Not ideal but I fully get that.

Serious question, if you could make a change right now, what would it be? And no, not a leading question, its a reality question.

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#2794137 12-Oct-2021 18:06

tdgeek:

You missed a few crucial points. When AKL cases grew that was not Level 3. It takes time for Level 3 effects to result in cases.

Another2-4 weeks of Level 4 gets it under control? Possibly. But while most of the 1.7M are complying some aren't and they are invariably unvaccinated. If the areas of concern are not every street of Auckland who do you penalise?

You need to focus on who is helping the fight against Covid and who isnt, but if you choose to bag the Govt (its actually MoH), then fine

The bottom line is its a fight against spread vs Delta. The latter is a known quantity, the former we can improve. But if I get two alerts today that one flew to Queenstown and one went to Welly, both without exemption, I give up. As I did last week here.

Yep 7-14days, which coincides with the rapid increase of daily communal cases. More worrying now is the unlinked case rise, which could be a sign of the strain the tracers are under.

Yes it was always going to be a gamble, but I think given we had put in such a big effort, anoher ~2 weeks to give them time to get it well and truly under control was well worth it at that stage. The most grumblings we were seeing in the new was from the SI over not being able to have more than 100 patrons in a pub etc.

Im not 'bagging' anyone as such, humans make mistakes, hopefully we learn from them. But the buck does end at the Govt and ultimately the PM. They do need to be held accountable for mistakes as they should for wins. That is why they get the $. I think the majority of non govt folk are simply doing their best, outside the flouters.

I agree the flouters for all of us are the most distressing part of being in lockdown. But many of those would have not occured in lvl 4 (or 3.5 due to flouters).

tdgeek:

What I bolded, Seriously?

Seriously, Telethons? Yeah, dont you remember them? A fun packed weekend on the TV. Kids would stay up as late as their eyes would allow etc. I hope you werent one of the kids made to go to bed at 8pm :-( But yes the push you were talking about is dubbed the vaxathon
100,000 jabs in a day: Telethon-style 'Vaxathon' hopes to break NZ's daily vaccination record (msn.com)

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#2794138 12-Oct-2021 18:06

vexxxboy:

i think the most important thing out of todays press conference was Of the 158 people in hospital since the start of the Delta outbreak, only three people were fully vaccinated.

Get vaccinated people .

As has been said by MoH and overuses media its a "epidemic" (not pandemic) of the unvaccinated.

We in NZ want to be the same, but at a lesser price.

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#2794139 12-Oct-2021 18:08

wellygary:

Hang in there, there are probably only 2 more weeks at the most of really hard stuff...

AKs vax numbers are 64% full and 87 1st... 2nd dose is rising about 11% a week, and first dose 2% a week.. with a bit of a tail wind from Saturday's "vaxathon" AK should hit 75% full next week and 90% first, and then get near 85% fully by Labour weekend,

I can see schools going back after the long weekend, + the govt moving to the next level to allow retail and public spaces like pools/library etc

BUT unless case numbers decline the border with the rest of NZ will be up until we up the vax rates in the rest of the country....

And if more go the 3 week route and not the 8 week route, much faster. I had a choice of both, Im in level 2 I still chose 3 weeks.

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