2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2796342 16-Oct-2021 22:45

Technofreak:

We need another 7 days like today to hit 90%.

The big question is how do you sensitively hit the ethnic demographics, where the next 5-10% needs/has to come from imo.

I think 7 days, without targetting those demographics, is going to be very optimistic, but I hope you are right. I also think 90% is too low, given we have the young'ns to go yet.

10% will leave a massive cost to WINZ for long covid support payments, of course small viral loads will leave natural immunity, but long covid will still be a large percentage of 10% (its going to be a huge cost even with pfizer full immunity efficacy, although I expect a dominant variant booster and or stronger dose/booster may help substantially there). Although I doubt that the Govt has been thinking long game.

Will be interesting to see the impact of vaccines on case rates, certainly appears to have a massive effect on acute infection rates (hospital/death).

With all the theories around why Moderna appears much stronger at full immunity efficacy vs delta due to it being a much stronger dose, I'd like to see some hard stats out of 1st world countries who have ONLY used Moderna.

Could we see a race on by big pharma in the long run? ;-)

TeaLeaf

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#2796346 16-Oct-2021 22:50

Handle9:

It picked up around 5% of the unvaccinated. That’s a very good result.

Did they release some figures? All ive seen is the updated tally at 1pm today of 84% which is 1% over yesterday. If its at 88% then, yes, that is a very good result. I think Auckland needed about 3.2x the number it got for 1st timers :-( (8k total I believe)

We may just get to 90% 2nd by Xmas after all, although still no garuntee on what number yet, or has that changed?

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#2796347 16-Oct-2021 22:52

antivaxxer making 'death threat' to Hilary Barry https://www.nzherald.co.nz/entertainment/covid-19-delta-outbreak-hilary-barrys-online-death-threat-from-anti-vaxxer/KPFLITPMBU23HAFMGA6Z2XFO5M/

antant

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#2796348 16-Oct-2021 22:57

TeaLeaf:

Explain to the people of Auckland why at 8 cases we stated it was working (which it was, elimination).

Although the day with only 8 cases felt good, the very next day we had 45. Likely the 8 was not a true representation.

Along those lines, Chris Hipkins said this in the Herald yesterday:

Public health experts said last week there was still a diminishing chance of returning to zero cases in Auckland, but Hipkins said that hope slipped away about three weeks ago.

"When we got into those single figures [in daily case numbers], I thought, 'Yes, we might just do this'.

"That was the tipping point. When we started to climb back out of those single figure cases, which we only sustained for one or two days, it started to become clear. That was also the point at which it got into those very hard-to-reach parts of the community."

That was also just after the move from level 4 to level 3 in Auckland, but Hipkins insists that staying in level 4 would not have seen a return to zero cases.

"The biggest increase in cases has been from indoor social gatherings [including at level 4]. Level 4 and level 3 only work if people voluntarily comply."

Reading between the lines, that’s perhaps when it became clear it was spreading in the non-compliers.

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#2796351 16-Oct-2021 23:24

antant: Although the day with only 8 cases felt good, the very next day we had 45. Likely the 8 was not a true representation.

Reading between the lines, that’s perhaps when it became clear it was spreading in the non-compliers.

Yep but that was 2 groups from memory (same demographic). Which is what I was saying all along, they knew the demographics, but instead of targeting those demographics, it appeared more like they threw the hands up in the air and said "too hard basket" which really was pathetic.

Single digit days were less important than the 7 day trend line which was very much heading down. If you look at the dates and when things were let go, you can clearly see the climb. I think that had more to do with not doing anything about the non compliant demographics (not outright flouters as such) than moving to level 3. so either way, they still dont seem to have done anything about it (of which there are some very easy practical answers).

So mass gatherings in a specific demographic and because of that it was impossible to eliminate..... I dont buy it, I read what he said as "Lazy"

So instead of doing something about family gatherings, he then tells the rest of Auckland to do the same and expects them not to bend the rules and thus exponentially increasing the problem. Pretty silly stuff, really, to be fair.

It is just very frustrating with just words and no action.

NZ stats

Handle9

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#2796355 16-Oct-2021 23:37

Technofreak:
We need another 7 days like today to hit 90%.

Today made a difference. Based on the recent vaccination rates NZ is about a month away from 90%.

There’s been significant uptake in Māori vaccination rates in the last couple of months. 50% of the doses to Māori today were first doses. 15% of doses today were delivered to Māori.

It’s been a very worthwhile exercise.

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TeaLeaf

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#2796357 16-Oct-2021 23:39

Handle9:There’s been significant uptake in Māori vaccination rates in the last couple of months. 50% of the doses to Māori today were first doses. 15% of doses today were delivered to Māori.

That is more important to me than the totality, not leaving people behind, no matter how hard it is.

COVID-19 Vaccination uptake rates within Māori communities across NZ | Ministry of Health NZ

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#2796370 17-Oct-2021 06:02

Still getting used to new Premier after previous one did all the work https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300432086/covid19-australia-nsw-restrictions-to-ease-further-as-state-hits-80pc-target

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#2796371 17-Oct-2021 06:05

People are not up with the play. Want to know why one dimensional approach never and won't ever work?

"
one inquisitive passerby - now first-dose-done - drawn into Rotorua's Fordlands Community Centre vaccination hub after hearing music.

She wanted to know what was happening, Coffey said, and then decided to not only get her first jab but return home and make sure her son did the same."

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-coronavirus-delta-variant-super-saturday-vaxathon-vaccination-drive-sees-record-numbers-jabbed/EUMI7XMGWXJ56UIR7ILTOA7VDE/

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#2796377 17-Oct-2021 07:44

mattwnz: I can see vaccination being required for many things. Much like people need to wear masks. Mask usage in the UK is very high in certain environments. I look at the UK as an example of where NZ is heading, and dividing their numbers by approx 10.

I think so too. When vax rates get to where we need them, its more viable to restrict places to vaxxed only. Its probably a sales pitch "Fully Vaxxed Only" In large retail stores, fully vaxxed or you wear a mask. From a health and safety viewpoint, makes a lot of sense, but then the anti vaxxers will show themselves, and there is the logistical challenge of having to man the doors for entry. Scan the vaccine card and enter or pop on the mask.

Buster

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#2796378 17-Oct-2021 07:54

tdgeek:

mattwnz: I can see vaccination being required for many things. Much like people need to wear masks. Mask usage in the UK is very high in certain environments. I look at the UK as an example of where NZ is heading, and dividing their numbers by approx 10.

I think so too. When vax rates get to where we need them, its more viable to restrict places to vaxxed only. Its probably a sales pitch "Fully Vaxxed Only" In large retail stores, fully vaxxed or you wear a mask. From a health and safety viewpoint, makes a lot of sense, but then the anti vaxxers will show themselves, and there is the logistical challenge of having to man the doors for entry. Scan the vaccine card and enter or pop on the mask.

Might be easy to offer a larger discount to vaxed people.

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#2796430 17-Oct-2021 08:02

Buster:

Might be easy to offer a larger discount to vaxed people.

Thats a huge cost. The discount is on the sticker price, of which a small portion is the net profit, so the discount is a huge bite into that.

If I went shopping and the large crowded store is Vax Only, thats my benefit. Particularly valuable for the vulnerable to.

SJB

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#2796545 17-Oct-2021 09:03

tdgeek:

mattwnz: I can see vaccination being required for many things. Much like people need to wear masks. Mask usage in the UK is very high in certain environments. I look at the UK as an example of where NZ is heading, and dividing their numbers by approx 10.

I think so too. When vax rates get to where we need them, its more viable to restrict places to vaxxed only. Its probably a sales pitch "Fully Vaxxed Only" In large retail stores, fully vaxxed or you wear a mask. From a health and safety viewpoint, makes a lot of sense, but then the anti vaxxers will show themselves, and there is the logistical challenge of having to man the doors for entry. Scan the vaccine card and enter or pop on the mask.

So that's 4300 cases and 14 deaths per day then based on yesterdays UK stats.

TeaLeaf

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#2796546 17-Oct-2021 09:17

In my opinion Masks MUST be mandatory in any public arena, even on sidewalks if you have any chance of passing within 1m of another person (which is 10s if not 100s of 1000s of peeps daily), but retail stores it should be "Vaxxd and Masked only". The data on full imunisation efficacy against Delta for the Pfizer Alpha based vaccine is not much better than a natural immunity from a prior low viral load infection. In other words, even with alpha based pfizer vaccine, the virus will continue to spread (admittedly at lower hospitilisation rates) and our only other major tool is masks, some would argue masks should be the 1st line of defense. But combine the 2 and the chances of a high viral load infection are dramatically reduced, which will by itself likely if not stamp the virus out, put a major dent in its ability. At least until we get an Alpha based booster, which in theory increases the dose load closer to Modernas, or we get a Delta based vaccine/booster, or if biologically safe, use Moderna as the third booster.

I do wonder with Moderna's suppsed 76% full imm efficacy vs delta, if combined with pfizers alpha based 42% full imm efficacy, would that be enough to bump combined efficacy of alpha based vaccines back up to the 90% range against delta..... time will tell I guess, but I still think by then we will have recieved a dominant strain booster and pfizer may copy Moderna's larger dose strategy.
"Comparing rates of infection between matched individuals fully vaccinated with mRNA-1273 versus BNT162b2 across Mayo Clinic Health System sites in multiple states (Minnesota, Wisconsin, Arizona, Florida, and Iowa)"
Comparison of two highly-effective mRNA vaccines for COVID-19 during periods of Alpha and Delta variant prevalence | medRxiv

COVID Breakthrough Risk May Be Lower With Moderna Than Pfizer Vaccine, Study Finds – NBC New York

So the big winner out of yesterday imo was the Maori peeps representing, good job. Still a lot of oppurtunity there to get us up to 95% vaxxd imo. Thats where I still think the MoH and Govt are letting us all down by not targetting obvious stats, as wonderful as yesterday was, its not enough, its not enough not to follow the breadcrumbs in Auckland large gatherings either (not by out right flouters, just people trying to live as they did before)
Super Saturday Vaxathon sees biggest-ever one-day vaccine update for Māori

COVID-19 Vaccination uptake rates within Māori communities across NZ | Ministry of Health NZ

TeaLeaf

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#2796552 17-Oct-2021 09:33

SJB:

So that's 4300 cases and 14 deaths per day then based on yesterdays UK stats.

The modeling for 90% for Middlemore (unlikely we will get 90% in SA at this stage without the MoH doing the obvious), 1000 cases per week and 30 hospitiliations.

For guessing games sake, if you used middlemores modelling (which clearly this is just for guessing sake and will end up being vastly different in all likelihood) times that by the 6 auck regions (forgetting the gulf islands for the sake of using central anyway), that is 6000 cases and 180 hosp a week, so 860 cases a day in Auck and 26 acute infections/hospitilisations a day. Of course those stats could be much less depending on many things (cultural, pop spread like Rodney district etc). Obviously Middlemore which is the biggest embarrassment in the NZ public health system (not due to the staff thats for sure) will require a massive injection of extra ICU wards and staff, or they will be transported elsewhere in Auck (likely Id imagine).

That is just Auckland.

95% paints a much different picture. As would a 3rd booster, as would wearing masks, as would using Moderna as will a dominant strain (delta) variant based booster. So whilst it might be grim for a period, as we get better vaccine efficacy combined with using masks so when people do get break through infections the viral load should equate to lower acute infections, then some time mid next year (hopefully earlier) we will have access to that dominant strain based booster (assuming we will be getting a 3rd pfizer alpha based booster prior as well).

It must be a statisticians dream right now, or is about to be :-)

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