2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2796563 17-Oct-2021 09:58

This study, (trying to track the actual study now) paints a very different picture to dominant strain based vaccine efficacy, suggesting a 3rd booster is "likely" as effective. Not sure I buy into this until we see an actual dominant strain based vaccine. But boosters regardless of being alpha do still make sense, both for wane, but just for the logical theory of Moderna providing greater efficacy and much less wane, study's showing more than double the dose, that being the theory of why (I say theory because the studies still havnt been peer reviewed yet). Also need to be a little bit skeptical without being conspiracy theorist, due to who may be funding studies, which is often privy information.

Delta variant not reason for Pfizer vaccine’s waning protection — Study (vanguardngr.com)

If studies are correct and Moderna's full immuno efficacy is ~76% vs pfizer 42%, imagine theoretically what an FDA approved 3rd booster for Moderna will do. This could be the way forward. Will be fascinating if it goes ahead to see the early data out of the US states that are using Moderna
Moderna COVID vaccine booster shot gets an early thumbs-up, but it's not a done deal. What to know - CNET

tdgeek

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#2796576 17-Oct-2021 10:52

SJB:

So that's 4300 cases and 14 deaths per day then based on yesterdays UK stats.

No idea what your point is. UK lived with it while vaccination was underway, so their stats arent comparable. Unless your saying that vax only places arent a good idea?

Fred99

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#2796623 17-Oct-2021 10:59

mRNA vaccines induce durable immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern

https://www.science.org/doi/10.1126/science.abm0829

The durability of immune memory after SARS-CoV-2 mRNA vaccination remains unclear. Here, we longitudinally profiled vaccine responses in SARS-CoV-2 naïve and recovered individuals for 6 months after vaccination. Antibodies declined from peak levels but remained detectable in most subjects at 6 months. We found mRNA vaccines generated functional memory B cells that increased from 3-6 months post-vaccination, with the majority of these cells cross-binding the Alpha, Beta, and Delta variants. mRNA vaccination further induced antigen-specific CD4+ and CD8+ T cells, and early CD4+ T cell responses correlated with long-term humoral immunity. Recall responses to vaccination in individuals with pre-existing immunity primarily increased antibody levels without substantially altering antibody decay rates. Together, these findings demonstrate robust cellular immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 and variants for at least 6 months after mRNA vaccination.

(IOW - there's no urgent need to roll out boosters for most immunocompetent people)

Probably better to use the term "effectiveness" rather than "efficacy" when reporting on these studies. "Efficacy" should be reserved for results of controlled clinical trials with double-blind placebo group.

Daynger

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#2796624 17-Oct-2021 11:05

Batman: Still getting used to new Premier after previous one did all the work https://i.stuff.co.nz/world/australia/300432086/covid19-australia-nsw-restrictions-to-ease-further-as-state-hits-80pc-target

The previous one is the reason both Australia and NZ are in the places they are regarding the delta strain.

She dropped more balls than a pachinko machine arcade on a busy night.

She is directly responsible for over 400 deaths.

Daynger

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#2796626 17-Oct-2021 11:09

quickymart:

rugrat:

A few thousand protesting in Auckland again. Police just observing illegal behaviour again.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-thousands-at-auckland-rally-brian-tamaki-speaks-police-keep-distance/NYPJ6ETBX2UA6I5ZXBO5EKEFDI/

Update: https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/new-zealand/2021/10/anti-lockdown-protest-police-promise-prosecution-action-against-organisers.html

As soon as he got on stage and spoke he was no longer "having a picnic" he was part of the "protest".

Should have been arrested on stage in front of everyone and thrown in the cells until he could go in front of the judge on Monday.

Fines wont work, his flock will pay them anyway, lock him up for the maximum 6 months.

Open an investigation into the charitable status of destiny, 100% they are cooking the books there.

SJB

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#2796631 17-Oct-2021 11:33

tdgeek:

SJB:

So that's 4300 cases and 14 deaths per day then based on yesterdays UK stats.

No idea what your point is. UK lived with it while vaccination was underway, so their stats arent comparable. Unless your saying that vax only places arent a good idea?

Just commenting on the 10% from Matts post.

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#2796686 17-Oct-2021 12:12

Handle9:
Technofreak:

We need another 7 days like today to hit 90%.

Today made a difference. Based on the recent vaccination rates NZ is about a month away from 90%.

There’s been significant uptake in Māori vaccination rates in the last couple of months. 50% of the doses to Māori today were first doses. 15% of doses today were delivered to Māori.

It’s been a very worthwhile exercise.

I had hoped first dose numbers yesterday would have been higher - they were up on previous days but yesterday was a lot of people just going along to get second doses.

It does however show that we need to be trying very different approaches such as this to get more people vaccinated, because the approach of trying to scare them like we've been trying for the past 10 days or so hasn't been particularly effective. There are still a lot of people who need to get first doses into.

GV27

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#2796687 17-Oct-2021 12:22

sbiddle:

It does however show that we need to be trying very different approaches such as this to get more people vaccinated, because the approach of trying to scare them like we've been trying for the past 10 days or so hasn't been particularly effective. There are still a lot of people who need to get first doses into.

Yup. 1st dose is key to everything.

Dingbatt

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#2796707 17-Oct-2021 13:08

Daynger:

The previous one is the reason both Australia and NZ are in the places they are regarding the delta strain.

She dropped more balls than a pachinko machine arcade on a busy night.

She is directly responsible for over 400 deaths.

So by your logic every road fatality is directly the responsibility of the Minister of Transport? After all they are the ones who set the rules, and ultimately could ban all vehicles from the road to increase safety. Nothing to do with drivers not obeying the rules or behaving in a risky fashion.

The best of strategies are only good until they butt up against human nature. This is obvious from the continuing spread of the virus around Auckland. If everyone had stuck strictly to the requirements then it likely would have been suppressed and eliminated, but that is not how humans work. They cheat and they lie. And if their life revolves around criminal activity then some extra ‘rules’ mean nothing.

Its a numbers game. 99% of people in Auckland can do their best, but the other 1% is still 15000 people.

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

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#2796726 17-Oct-2021 14:07

We have proven than if the best country in the world at containing covid cannot contain 1 delta case, there is no chance that whoever in charge of NSW can contain delta in NSW.

It's easy to blame ms gladys but we have shown that it is not about who's in charge.

tdgeek

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#2796732 17-Oct-2021 14:23

Batman: We have proven than if the best country in the world at containing covid cannot contain 1 delta case, there is no chance that whoever in charge of NSW can contain delta in NSW.

It's easy to blame ms gladys but we have shown that it is not about who's in charge.

If we get to circa 2000 cases a day, I'll agree with you. NSW and VIC are broadly our population, a bit higher, so a reasonable comparison.

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TeaLeaf

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#2796734 17-Oct-2021 14:29

sbiddle:

It does however show that we need to be trying very different approaches such as this to get more people vaccinated, because the approach of trying to scare them like we've been trying for the past 10 days or so hasn't been particularly effective. There are still a lot of people who need to get first doses into.

Yep, we are all saying it, why does the Govt not see it....

The data is available for all, the demographics in need are available for all. Both in who is creating the mass cases due to just cultural differences and persons per house situations, and then the demographic in need for actual first doses.

The first group needs education, its easy to say all people should know, but clearly they don't know 'why' for all things pandemic but most of all why large gatherings, especially without vaccination and masks is a no go.

The 2nd group I think is a case of accessing them rather than them driving to a medical centre, especially in rural areas, clearly highlighted on the map.

It is really like drawing teeth watching how they (sick of saying who) are handling the above situations, or more to the point, not handling it. Much like in lvl4, hoping people would get vaxxd and adhere to the rules, once they figured out who and why they were inflating the numbers, instead of doing something about 'it', they decided to throw the hands in the air and announce all of Auckland should do exactly the same, totally bizarre and lazy politics.

Of course there are cultural divides, but that shouldnt be the reason for doing nothing and for leaving anybody who is willing to listen, to be left behind in this final bid to reach 90-100% of current eligible people. It just wont do captain, it just wont do :-)

I still think aside from the V from the Pilot yesterday, the single most pleasing thing was seeing a massive change in the 'Maori' vax rate. Have to commend those people and now we need to do more to reach their Whanau and friends who "want" to be reached. As you say, relying soley on scare tactics as a political policy to solve this problem is simply ineffective and outright silly. Im pretty confident we can and will do better, with a little bit of public pressure.

sbiddle

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#2796735 17-Oct-2021 14:35

Has anybody seen any data online that shows any additional details of MIQ cases? I'm really curious over the past 2 months as an example how many MIQ cases were detected beyond the day 0/1 or day 3 tests. This is shown in the daily press releases but doesn't seem to be shown in any other easy to access location.

It's pretty clear now the business case for MIQ is slowly beginning to fade when we now have 363 cases this week of CT this week and 9 in MIQ with every one of those cases being pickup up during day 0/1 or day 3 testing. Looking back in recent weeks with the exception of a few close contacts who have become infectious later in their stay, virtually everybody is testing positive on day 0/1 or day 3. We're not collection vaccination status of arrivals so don't have a way to know what percentage of those who are testing positive are fully vaccinated, but you would have to assume the mast majority of people these days would be.

TeaLeaf

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#2796737 17-Oct-2021 14:44

Fred99: mRNA vaccines induce durable immune memory to SARS-CoV-2 and variants of concern

(IOW - there's no urgent need to roll out boosters for most immunocompetent people)

Probably better to use the term "effectiveness" rather than "efficacy" when reporting on these studies. "Efficacy" should be reserved for results of controlled clinical trials with double-blind placebo group.

Yes I agree, most people will be fine for 6 months (given the wane against alpha according to the Prof on ABC's coronacast is 20% per month and stick at approx 36%, it is very close to the full efficacy mayo clinic study claims of 42% anyway), double dosed and wearing a mask (to reduce potential break through viral load infection). Of course there will still be some deaths, but Id expect in NZ it will be relatively low for those recently fully vaxxd and wearing a mask and not comorbid. For front line staff who had shots a fair while ago now, Id expect the booster is coming, along with us immuno suppressed comorbid jobbies.

Although the differences in complete immune efficacy of Moderna and Pfizer, is the main sticking point. Most seem to think its simply the dose being the difference between 76% and 42% in the mayo clinic study of the applicable US states. So a third booster in theory should raise pfizer doses and hopefully full immune efficacy.

As per web md "The differences could be explained by the higher amount of active ingredient in the Moderna vaccine, the researchers wrote. The Moderna vaccine has 100 micrograms of active ingredient, as compared with 30 micrograms in the Pfizer vaccine."

Its going to be fascinating to see what a 3rd Moderna booster does.

I can't recall where I read it, but what I read suggested natural immunity via a low viral load infection has approx the same efficacy as a double dose of Pfizer. Will search for it a bit later.

I have a question based on that, lets say somebody in the US has partial immunity due to a low viral load infection, can they extend that immune response via a vaccine (Moderna in this case)?

Likewise, if somebody catches a low viral load break through infection on top of pfizers said "42%" full efficacy, will that extend their full efficacy potential? not sure if any data on these situations has been studied as of yet, but is an interesting point.

TeaLeaf

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#2796739 17-Oct-2021 14:48

sbiddle:

Has anybody seen any data online that shows any additional details of MIQ cases? I'm really curious over the past 2 months as an example how many MIQ cases were detected beyond the day 0/1 or day 3 tests. This is shown in the daily press releases but doesn't seem to be shown in any other easy to access location.

Good question, given we know it has occured, but how many/often.......

Perhaps the reason for it not being available, much like why the police didnt hand out consequences of $4000 or 6 months jail to the flouters yesterday is simply political. ie are the holding onto a failed concept (not suggesting they are, but the question itself and the lack of data, does put the suspicion radar up a little)

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