What is your new normal

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#2455900 6-Apr-2020 15:21

quickymart:

I also think this virus may cost Trump his re-election chances, although Biden isn't exactly the best option either, IMO - but anyone would be better than Trump.

There is loose talk of the Democrats drafting in the NY State Governor Andrew Cuomo, based on his performance in the COVID crisis. The one thing the Democrats can't afford to do is put up another candidate as uninspiring as Hillary Clinton was, but I suspect Joe Biden might be.

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#2455902 6-Apr-2020 15:23

sbiddle:

The new normal is the financial implications, something so many people don't seem to understand or realise yet.

We've never had 20% unemployment in NZ in modern times, and yet that is a very real probability. Many businesses aren't going to survive this, and our way of life and many things we took for granted will change.

We have learnt a lot over time how to deal with this. Our last peak was circa 1990-96 at around 10.5%. That was during the restructuring that saw the demise of the automobile assembly and related industries, the demise of many or our primary industry processing plants and associated industries. This dumped large groups onto unemployment and at the same time. This decimated towns, cities and regions in a very short period of time with the only assistance available was unemployment benefit and largely ineffective job creation schemes.

The government is using reserves and borrowing to cushion the blow and we have much better debt management processes that will allow businesses to essentially recess. There is a very good chance that many of these will be able to resume and rebuild. There will be casualties but I feel many of the failures were already lame ducks before Covid-19.

I am not saying that we will not see much higher unemployment figures but my gut feeling is 10% to 12%. That is very bad but manageable.

I also believe we are in a better position than the Northern Hemisphere. We are still primary industry dependant and we mostly had our food harvest in before before Covid-19. When we are coming out it will be our summer and the northern winter. The Northern Hemisphere is going need our primary products and this will bring much needed revenue and help the recovery.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2455961 6-Apr-2020 15:41

Everybody keeps saying the tourism sector will struggle through OK because domestic tourism will flourish.

They seem to be forgetting that with 20% unemployment (which right now looks like it might be a best case scenario), and then significant numbers of families struggling on single incomes and big mortgages that there simply won't be money around for people to just decide to go to Queenstown for the weekend.

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#2455982 6-Apr-2020 16:08

sbiddle:
Everybody keeps saying the tourism sector will struggle through OK because domestic tourism will flourish.

They seem to be forgetting that with 20% unemployment (which right now looks like it might be a best case scenario), and then significant numbers of families struggling on single incomes and big mortgages that there simply won't be money around for people to just decide to go to Queenstown for the weekend.

I think we will see a big rise in the use of campsites and motorcamps. Freedom camping will gain more followers as will staycations. Instead of offshore tourists travelling here we will see more Kiwis travelling New Zealand. That is a good thing. If air travel stays low post Covid-19 that will be good for the environment.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

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#2455987 6-Apr-2020 16:14

sbiddle:

Everybody keeps saying the tourism sector will struggle through OK because domestic tourism will flourish.

They seem to be forgetting that with 20% unemployment (which right now looks like it might be a best case scenario), and then significant numbers of families struggling on single incomes and big mortgages that there simply won't be money around for people to just decide to go to Queenstown for the weekend.

Most people who say that have no idea how NZ tourism actually worked. They just say that operators can charge less for Kiwis to do it instead. Sadly, that won't work for any but the most simple of activities. For example, running your helicopter/jetboat/hotel/ship/gondola/luxury lodge/etc will not suddenly get cheaper. You still need the same revenue to cover fixed costs.

International tourism brought $25 million of spend EVERY DAY into the economy....

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#2456087 6-Apr-2020 17:22

I wonder if we escape the worst of the virus , if nz will be seen as a safe place, isolated from the worries of the world which then encourage relative tourism.

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#2456092 6-Apr-2020 17:31

As someone whose livelihood depends on large crowds of people and artists domestic/international travel, it would be amiss of me to not be a little worried about the future, just hoping I can atleast get back to making (children's entertainment) television soon, otherwise I'll be looking for work with the rest of NZ... grateful for the government's response and working for a relatively small company when it comes to full time staff.

Glad I chose not to pursue working on cruise ships long term though...

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#2456103 6-Apr-2020 17:40

As part of the new normal, I'm thinking domestic tourism will be reasonably priced.. however I'm definately going to explore local places more often.

Professionally, I think WFH will be easier and wanted more than before. I also think companies will ask for all staff WFH once a month or once every 2 months, so they can practice it and test their systems etc. Business strategy will be slightly different.

At home, I'll better prepare myself, wheather is by having extra money in the bank, sypply of masks, disposable gloves, etc.

+1 @kobiak: Big wait lines in bars/cafes/takeaways for first 2 weeks after lockdown

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#2456109 6-Apr-2020 17:51

Is it time for a remake of LOTR yet?

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#2456110 6-Apr-2020 17:52

afe66: I wonder if we escape the worst of the virus , if nz will be seen as a safe place, isolated from the worries of the world which then encourage relative tourism.

We may have to build a wall to keep out Trump supporters.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

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#2456131 6-Apr-2020 18:30

Geektastic:

Is it time for a remake of LOTR yet?

https://www.indiewire.com/gallery/amazons-lord-of-the-rings-explained-plot-cast/

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#2456135 6-Apr-2020 18:32

Geektastic:

sbiddle:

Everybody keeps saying the tourism sector will struggle through OK because domestic tourism will flourish.

They seem to be forgetting that with 20% unemployment (which right now looks like it might be a best case scenario), and then significant numbers of families struggling on single incomes and big mortgages that there simply won't be money around for people to just decide to go to Queenstown for the weekend.

Most people who say that have no idea how NZ tourism actually worked. They just say that operators can charge less for Kiwis to do it instead. Sadly, that won't work for any but the most simple of activities. For example, running your helicopter/jetboat/hotel/ship/gondola/luxury lodge/etc will not suddenly get cheaper. You still need the same revenue to cover fixed costs.

International tourism brought $25 million of spend EVERY DAY into the economy....

I think domestic tourism may grow a bit but the companies are very likely to be radically different and offering different activities. A ton of tourism companies will simply go to the wall, as unfortunately you well aware.

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#2456145 6-Apr-2020 18:56

Handle9:
Geektastic:

Is it time for a remake of LOTR yet?

https://www.indiewire.com/gallery/amazons-lord-of-the-rings-explained-plot-cast/

I was more thinking a PJ style 3 movie grand advert for NZ tourism!

MikeB4

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#2456153 6-Apr-2020 19:05

Geektastic:
Is it time for a remake of LOTR yet?

Oh dear God noooooooooooooooooo

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

everettpsycho

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#2456156 6-Apr-2020 19:17

Geektastic:
sbiddle:

Everybody keeps saying the tourism sector will struggle through OK because domestic tourism will flourish.

They seem to be forgetting that with 20% unemployment (which right now looks like it might be a best case scenario), and then significant numbers of families struggling on single incomes and big mortgages that there simply won't be money around for people to just decide to go to Queenstown for the weekend.

Most people who say that have no idea how NZ tourism actually worked. They just say that operators can charge less for Kiwis to do it instead. Sadly, that won't work for any but the most simple of activities. For example, running your helicopter/jetboat/hotel/ship/gondola/luxury lodge/etc will not suddenly get cheaper. You still need the same revenue to cover fixed costs.

International tourism brought $25 million of spend EVERY DAY into the economy....

I'm still a member of backpacker Facebook groups and there is some very cheap campervans going up for sale by the Germans catching the mercy flights desperate to get some money back. I'm really tempted to get one so we can use it over the coming years. My partner works in high end overseas travel and I keep telling her to survive their company has to offer some premium local packages while their demographic can't go overseas. They seemingly have no interest in offering this and it seems bizarre, surely selling some local packages is better than selling nothing at all, with no travel there's no product and as a result no money.

Personally we are all working from home and I do quite like doing it, every day is a bit much and the VC meetings is excessive and reaching hours a day off catch ups, but once a week would be fine to avoid distractions if the office and get some focusing based jobs done. Now it's been proven to be constructive I don't think my bosses would have any objections to everyone doing it more regularly.

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