How many Covid-19 cases by the end of March 2022?

Forums › Health and fitness › How many Covid-19 cases by the end of March 2022?

1 | 2 | 3

5288 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2159

#2818980 25-Nov-2021 08:39

UK which is highly vaccinated has been averaging around 40,000 cases a day, 115 deaths a day.

Pro-rata, NZ could expect 2900 cases a day, 8 deaths per day.

But...

The UK is very much open which NZ is not.

The UK has been through many waves of covid, NZ has not.

We're going to have a lot of covid cases, the more we vaccinate the better. Treatments are a lot better now. There is reason for optimism.

Unfortunately, there are pockets of New Zealand with low vaccination rates... they will be hit hard, sadly and unnecessarily.

It is important to be aware of the possibilities and scenarios so we don't become complacent too early.

Geektastic

18009 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8465

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2818984 25-Nov-2021 08:46

kobiak:
sbiddle:

I'll take a totally different view.

Why do you think case numbers are important and why do you think they will still be important by the end of March? Will we even care about the number of cases? What is this going to tell or or what does it mean? Do you think everybody who tests positive at home using a RAT (which the govt will hopefully legalise by then because Hipkins said they're key going forward) will even report their positive test or will they just self isolate and get on with life which is what is happening overseas?

The only thing that is really relevant going forward is the number of people who are in ICU/hospital and whether our health system is being overwhelmed.

Personally I see case numbers staying pretty low and really don't pick the sort of numbers that people are talking about being reality.

+1. This.

That's my view too. and according to all government actions - that's how they see it too.

Numbers are important but proved to be irrelevant in the current outbreak, especially in the past 6-8 weeks, once high level of vaccination is achieved, once most vulnerable (+ hesitant antivaxers) are taken care of - we as NZ, should be at the sweet spot. "traffic light" system is designed for that very reason.

I'm also glad that government does not rush opening up the borders as Aussies did again. Is not that how their Delta outbreak started?

Well ours must have started by someone crossing the border too.

surfisup1000

5288 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2159

#2818985 25-Nov-2021 08:48

sbiddle:

I'll take a totally different view.

Why do you think case numbers are important and why do you think they will still be important by the end of March?

Daily numbers can be used to predict future hospitalisations and identify hotspots.

The traffic light system is also based on DHB covid prevalence, so daily numbers are used to determine traffic light settings.

MikeB4

MikeB4
18775 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 12766

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2818986 25-Nov-2021 08:50

These are lives lost, families devastated. It's not some heartless game.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

kobiak

1615 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 551

Trusted

#2818996 25-Nov-2021 09:19

Geektastic:

Well ours must have started by someone crossing the border too.

and unfortunately from the Aus :(

helping others at evgenyk.nz

compound

89 posts

Master Geek
+1 received by user: 43

#2819002 25-Nov-2021 09:36

At least the Covid numbers are pushed in our face every day. Who realised how many people died from flu every season until the medical experts claimed we had next to no deaths related to flu this last season.

Apple TV

Stream your favourite shows now on Apple TV (affiliate link).

surfisup1000

5288 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2159

#2819003 25-Nov-2021 09:38

MikeB4: These are lives lost, families devastated. It's not some heartless game.

Don't be so dramatic. It is perfectly reasonable to talk about future scenarios.

MikeB4

MikeB4
18775 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 12766

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2819010 25-Nov-2021 09:49

networkn:

MikeB4: These are lives lost, families devastated. It's not some heartless game.

I wish you would stop characterising peoples need to balance the economic realities with the health realities as them playing a heartless game. *Many* people have lost their livelihoods, lifetime of savings, financial security, homes, which is exceptionally devastating as well. There is a need for balance, we cannot remain locked in rooms forever to avoid deaths. I know of two people by association who have lost everything and then taken their own lives in the past few months.

I am not responsible for your lack of comprehension skills but I will clear a point for you in simple terms. I have made NO mention in this thread about economics of lockdowns or the financial losses many folks have suffered. My point was clear I find making a childish heart competition and running a virtual sweepstake on tragedy to be heartless and lacking any empathy at all.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

surfisup1000

5288 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2159

#2819016 25-Nov-2021 09:58

MikeB4:

I am not responsible for your lack of comprehension skills but I will clear a point for you in simple terms. I have made NO mention in this thread about economics of lockdowns or the financial losses many folks have suffered. My point was clear I find making a childish heart competition and running a virtual sweepstake on tragedy to be heartless and lacking any empathy at all.

So if you are offended then don't read it.

networkn

Networkn
32862 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 15453

ID Verified

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2819032 25-Nov-2021 10:38

MikeB4:

I am not responsible for your lack of comprehension skills but I will clear a point for you in simple terms. I have made NO mention in this thread about economics of lockdowns or the financial losses many folks have suffered. My point was clear I find making a childish heart competition and running a virtual sweepstake on tragedy to be heartless and lacking any empathy at all.

You are correct, I did misunderstand your point. I apologise.

MikeB4

MikeB4
18775 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 12766

ID Verified

Trusted

Subscriber

#2819043 25-Nov-2021 11:01

@networkn no probs. I apologise for being harsh as well. I guess we are all feeling triggered and stressed right now.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

New World

Shop on-line at New World now for your groceries (affiliate link).

Geektastic

18009 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 8465

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2819316 25-Nov-2021 17:26

kobiak:
Geektastic:

Well ours must have started by someone crossing the border too.

and unfortunately from the Aus :(

We should sue them for damages.

mattwnz

20515 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 4795

#2819322 25-Nov-2021 17:56

NZ agreed to the two way transtasman bubble so NZ took that risk. We ended up paying a pretty high price for it. Not sure if any other cases have leaked through the border from other countries since then. Or if all cases can still be Epidemiologically linked back to that case returning from Oz

SJB

2945 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 2287
Inactive user

#2819324 25-Nov-2021 18:17

mattwnz:
NZ agreed to the two way transtasman bubble so NZ took that risk. We ended up paying a pretty high price for it. Not sure if any other cases have leaked through the border from other countries since then. Or if all cases can still be Epidemiologically linked back to that case returning from Oz

A very expensive mistake. The bubble should have waited until 90% plus vaxed and there might very well have been no Auckland shutdown.

tdgeek

30048 posts

Uber Geek
+1 received by user: 9455

Trusted

Lifetime subscriber

#2819329 25-Nov-2021 19:01

SJB:

mattwnz:
NZ agreed to the two way transtasman bubble so NZ took that risk. We ended up paying a pretty high price for it. Not sure if any other cases have leaked through the border from other countries since then. Or if all cases can still be Epidemiologically linked back to that case returning from Oz

A very expensive mistake. The bubble should have waited until 90% plus vaxed and there might very well have been no Auckland shutdown.

Yep, and while I agree, when we eventually got there, all hell to pay for waiting. As we could have waited for nothing. At the end of all this, we can look at real data not hindsight data and evaluate it. For next time. Everyone bags the Govt and MoH, or they bag the Opposition. But no one knew the end game. To our benefit, we had less deaths, and consequently less hospital patients. The economy bounced back. Yes, Auckland has suffered hugely, but Google Covid [insert country here] and we are better off. Ive lost count how many third ad fourth waves there are, for some first world countries its like June 2020 all over again

1 | 2 | 3