How many Covid-19 cases by the end of March 2022?

Forums › Health and fitness › How many Covid-19 cases by the end of March 2022?

SJB

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#290639 24-Nov-2021 19:32

How about some estimates of case numbers now that we know when restrictions will ease. It will be interesting to look back at the end of March and see how accurate or not our estimates were.

My estimate is 1500 per day.

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Mad Scientist
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#2818781 24-Nov-2021 19:45

how many covid cases - end of march 2022 ...

200

scuwp

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#2818784 24-Nov-2021 19:50

100 - 120 per day.

Lazy is such an ugly word, I prefer to call it selective participation

compound

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#2818787 24-Nov-2021 19:58

600/day and we wont be looking forward to winter.

Dingbatt

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#2818792 24-Nov-2021 20:20

Te Pūnaha Matatini resorting to asking Geekzone now?

“We’ve arranged a society based on science and technology, in which nobody understands anything about science technology. Carl Sagan 1996

Geektastic

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#2818795 24-Nov-2021 20:25

3000

eracode

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#2818800 24-Nov-2021 20:38

Is there really a need for yet another COVID thread? Can’t see the point of this. What will it prove? One poster can put up their guess then later gets to say ”told ya!”?

Sometimes I just sit and think. Other times I just sit.

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Geektastic

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#2818899 24-Nov-2021 22:48

eracode:

Is there really a need for yet another COVID thread? Can’t see the point of this. What will it prove? One poster can put up their guess then later gets to say ”told ya!”?

It's a post-apocalyptic version of "Guess The Weight of the Cake" at the church fete.

openmedia

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#2818935 25-Nov-2021 00:10

Between 4000 and 5000 a day based on UK modes

Probably 10-15 deaths/day

Stabilise around July when the older population and at risk and vaccinated have all been impacted or died.

Then we prosecute the Govt for genocide, or at-least manslaughter.

And yes... I'm serious. Every MP, All of them...

And this is be being positive.... Honest...

Generally known online as OpenMedia, now working for Red Hat APAC as a Technology Evangelist and Portfolio Architect. Still playing with MythTV and digital media on the side.

mattwnz

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#2818937 25-Nov-2021 00:34

IMO it will worsen as we head into winter . But depends on how quickly children are vaccinated as they will be a major source of the spread if they aren't.

It also depends on how much testing is done, and how many people won't bother getting tested. Also whether the government will continue to do free testing for everyone, or change the way testing is done. Guessing 500 a day will be normal with 10 deaths a day.

MikeB4

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#2818952 25-Nov-2021 06:53

Good grief, this is one of the most uncaring and frankly callous threads if have seen here in over a decade of being a member.

Let's try and have at least some empathy and thought for others instead playing stupid number games. This disgusts me.

Here is a crazy notion, lets give peace a chance.

tdgeek

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#2818955 25-Nov-2021 07:18

If we are fully vaccinated and hopefully 5-11 kids are included and the vulnerable have their third doses and the rest of us who have reached 6 months have had our third dose, then case numbers are not that relevant. It's about hospital beds and ICU. I assume the traffic lights will ramp up as beds ramp up, and vice versa

Two of our ethnic communities are well down on vaccinations, and IIRC they are about 75% of cases. So, of the rest, the majority, the incidence is relatively low. When those groups catch up, thats quite a good gain. My concern is the older group that have health issues and rest homes.

I hope they publish the vax and non vax incidence of the dailies, to reassure the vaccinated and give a nudge to the anti vaxxers

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tdgeek

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#2818956 25-Nov-2021 07:20

MikeB4: Good grief, this is one of the most uncaring and frankly callous threads if have seen here in over a decade of being a member.

Let's try and have at least some empathy and thought for others instead playing stupid number games. This disgusts me.

You wonder how many are genuine thoughts and how many are "I told you so, New Zealand" thoughts

sbiddle

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#2818958 25-Nov-2021 07:21

SJB:

How about some estimates of case numbers now that we know when restrictions will ease. It will be interesting to look back at the end of March and see how accurate or not our estimates were.

My estimate is 1500 per day.

I'll take a totally different view.

Why do you think case numbers are important and why do you think they will still be important by the end of March? Will we even care about the number of cases? What is this going to tell or or what does it mean? Do you think everybody who tests positive at home using a RAT (which the govt will hopefully legalise by then because Hipkins said they're key going forward) will even report their positive test or will they just self isolate and get on with life which is what is happening overseas?

The only thing that is really relevant going forward is the number of people who are in ICU/hospital and whether our health system is being overwhelmed.

Personally I see case numbers staying pretty low and really don't pick the sort of numbers that people are talking about being reality.

SJB

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#2818975 25-Nov-2021 08:22

I agree the hospitalization number is the most important metric but you could probably create an equation that includes the daily cases and vaccination numbers to estimate hospitalizations so the daily cases might be useful. Of course the number is only from those tested so you would need to up it to include the untested.

I don't think it's callous to think about a number. We are all armchair experts so let's see how 'expert' we really are. And epidemiologists and government modelers are doing it all the time. It's also an indication of how well or not we think the government measures to control it are going to work out.

I'm not sure other countries experiences can be used as guidelines. We are two separate islands with a lot of rural communities and only a few large conurbations so physically isolated much of the time. That's not the same as many other countries. We are probably akin to a well vaccinated, sparsely populated US state, if there is such a thing.

kobiak

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#2818979 25-Nov-2021 08:35

sbiddle:

I'll take a totally different view.

Why do you think case numbers are important and why do you think they will still be important by the end of March? Will we even care about the number of cases? What is this going to tell or or what does it mean? Do you think everybody who tests positive at home using a RAT (which the govt will hopefully legalise by then because Hipkins said they're key going forward) will even report their positive test or will they just self isolate and get on with life which is what is happening overseas?

The only thing that is really relevant going forward is the number of people who are in ICU/hospital and whether our health system is being overwhelmed.

Personally I see case numbers staying pretty low and really don't pick the sort of numbers that people are talking about being reality.

+1. This.

That's my view too. and according to all government actions - that's how they see it too.

Numbers are important but proved to be irrelevant in the current outbreak, especially in the past 6-8 weeks, once high level of vaccination is achieved, once most vulnerable (+ hesitant antivaxers) are taken care of - we as NZ, should be at the sweet spot. "traffic light" system is designed for that very reason.

I'm also glad that government does not rush opening up the borders as Aussies did again. Is not that how their Delta outbreak started?

helping others at evgenyk.nz

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