2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2830365 11-Dec-2021 12:48

Hi guys, If you are interested in early analysis of Omicron, Doctor John Campbell's latest video called 'International Omcron doubling is a good watch on youtube, posted in the last few hours.

Someone might be able to post the link.

Cases in hospital in South Africa are now rising sharply. The trend so far (early days) still reflects a less virulent infection (based off per capita and key indicators like Oxygen therapy, and I.CU. beds).

What we need to look out for here, is the Tsunami effect I guess, where even a less virulent disease, creates massive waves too big and too rappidly to prevent poor outcomes.

This is mainly an immediate issue for the unvaccinated, however it has down stream affects in terms of health care access for the rest of us.

Omicron is still a mixed picture in other words. Some positive signs, some worrying signs.

Just keep swimming...

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2830411 11-Dec-2021 14:19

With a low count of 63 cases today, you could see a path from here to eradication.

However this would seem pointless somewhat in the context of what is coming with Omicron from an eradication pov. For its own sake though, 63 cases is some brilliant outbreak control, which is what you want to see with a coming variant that has vaccine escape qualities to its profile.

It seems counterintuitive to be loosening internal borders now, with eradication being possible, purely off a reducing R naught which is the path to zero cases with any disease.

Maths will win out if we stayed the course.

But we have to basically abandon that thinking and stay in a present and realistic model of controlling curves and focusing on elimination and not eradication.

Just keep swimming...

Batman

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#2830416 11-Dec-2021 14:58

I'm not sure about eradication but fresh pfizer... I'm loving the 5g over here

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2830418 11-Dec-2021 15:20

Batman: I'm not sure about eradication but fresh pfizer... I'm loving the 5g over here

You could never be sure of anything with Delta.

However based off trends and mathematics the present R naught is headed to zero cases. You cannot maintain spread if the R naught is below one, it is mathematically impossible.

Just keep swimming...

FineWine

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#2830446 11-Dec-2021 16:41

I received an interesting letter from my DHB Rheumatologist yesterday. In essence it stated:

Because I am on a rheumatological medication, Methotrexate, I am required to have a 3rd vaccine dose. Apparently because I am on Methotrexate I am at a greater risk of a more severe COVID-19. This 3rd dose is the same as my previous 2 doses but different from my booster dose and I should of had this 3rd dose a minimum of 2 moths after my 2nd dose. Upon receiving my 3rd dose the 6 month countdown would start for my booster dose.

For all of this is to occur

1 - Make an appointment with my GP
2 - I and my GP are to sign a consent form as apparently the vaccine is not formally registered for 3 doses.
3 - My GP will provide a prescription for the third dose.
4 - Once I receive the prescription I can then go and get my 3rd dose. My GP in this case as he is set up to provide COVID-19 vaccines.
5 - Once I receive my 3rd dose I am to skip the next dose of my Methotrexate medication.

Apparently this is all meant to be free.

Methotrexate and Rituximab are implicated in this 3rd dose regime. Both these medications are immune-system suppressants and anti-inflammatory medications so I suppose it stands to reason that they will have an effect on the efficacy of the COVID vaccine.

Have booked my GP appointment for Monday.

Whilst the difficult we can do immediately, the impossible takes a bit longer. However, miracles you will have to wait for.

Batman

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#2830449 11-Dec-2021 17:14

Sup:
Batman: I'm not sure about eradication but fresh pfizer... I'm loving the 5g over here

You could never be sure of anything with Delta.

However based off trends and mathematics the present R naught is headed to zero cases. You cannot maintain spread if the R naught is below one, it is mathematically impossible.

It's statistically impossible to win powerball yet someone wins it every month.

vexxxboy

4243 posts

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#2830455 11-Dec-2021 17:35

Sup:

Hi guys, If you are interested in early analysis of Omicron, Doctor John Campbell's latest video called 'International Omicron doubling is a good watch on youtube, posted in the last few hours.

Someone might be able to post the link.

Cases in hospital in South Africa are now rising sharply. The trend so far (early days) still reflects a less virulent infection (based off per capita and key indicators like Oxygen therapy, and I.CU. beds).

What we need to look out for here, is the Tsunami effect I guess, where even a less virulent disease, creates massive waves too big and too rappidly to prevent poor outcomes.

This is mainly an immediate issue for the unvaccinated, however it has down stream affects in terms of health care access for the rest of us.

Omicron is still a mixed picture in other words. Some positive signs, some worrying signs.

I'm not sure South Africa with only 26% of its population double vaccinated should be the country where we learn about what happens with Omicron

Common sense is not as common as you think.

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tdgeek

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#2830463 11-Dec-2021 17:50

Batman:

It's statistically impossible to win powerball yet someone wins it every month.

Seems like a self oxymoron?

KrazyKid

1238 posts

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#2830482 11-Dec-2021 18:04

FineWine:
I received an interesting letter from my DHB Rheumatologist yesterday. In essence it stated:

Because I am on a rheumatological medication, Methotrexate, I am required to have a 3rd vaccine dose. Apparently because I am on Methotrexate I am at a greater risk of a more severe COVID-19. This 3rd dose is the same as my previous 2 doses but different from my booster dose and I should of had this 3rd dose a minimum of 2 moths after my 2nd dose.

I had this third dose a few weeks ago. Also taking arthritis medication.
Talk to your doctor about pausing the medication or the timing of the vaccination. The recommendation is to take this third dose at a nadir so your have the least amount of immune suppression in your body.
I decided to pause for a period before and then 2 weeks affer my third dose. Well when I say pause I still took some medicine, but a different, less suppressive one.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2830484 11-Dec-2021 18:17

vexxxboy:

Sup:

Hi guys, If you are interested in early analysis of Omicron, Doctor John Campbell's latest video called 'International Omicron doubling is a good watch on youtube, posted in the last few hours.

Someone might be able to post the link.

Cases in hospital in South Africa are now rising sharply. The trend so far (early days) still reflects a less virulent infection (based off per capita and key indicators like Oxygen therapy, and I.CU. beds).

What we need to look out for here, is the Tsunami effect I guess, where even a less virulent disease, creates massive waves too big and too rappidly to prevent poor outcomes.

This is mainly an immediate issue for the unvaccinated, however it has down stream affects in terms of health care access for the rest of us.

Omicron is still a mixed picture in other words. Some positive signs, some worrying signs.

I'm not sure South Africa with only 26% of its population double vaccinated should be the country where we learn about what happens with Omicron

Sure there are differences, and lots of them.

The channel does acknowledge this. You can extrapolate some things with some certainty,. The speed of spread was the first indicator.

The mirroring curves appearing in other countries now reinforces South African data is transferable so far.

The low vaccinations are not really the only story here. The fact that South Africa's Gauteng region has been exposed to large Beta then Delta outbreaks, and that Omicron is replacing Delta, should tell you a lot.

All data has a use, some data is best understood in a local context.

With high rates of local infection generated immunity, the hospital rates are compelling.

The thousands of people in this country who have not had a vaccine, who are relying on their 'natural' immunity, really could learn a lot watching South Africa right now.

As should people who are vaccinated, keep an eye on the break through rate of South Africans who are fully vaccinated.

If you are due a booster, videos like this should help reinforce your decision not to dilly dally.

Most of all people who plan on not getting vaccinated, and relying on their immune system forever and ever, really need to watch videos like this and review their freedom of choice settings....to understand....there is no choice if the virus is going to keep reinfecting you like you have never had it before.

It is always a good idea to watch material from all over the world and understand the nuances it is what our scientific advisors are doing.

Just keep swimming...

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2830513 11-Dec-2021 21:23

Batman: It's statistically impossible to win powerball yet someone wins it every month.

Check out a video that explains the R Naught.

It helps to make sense of outbreaks.

A poster in this thread, sorry I forget the name, the fellow who posts the amazing graphs regularly, posited that the R naught of Auckland was below one.

That caught my attention.

Numbers were bouncing around a little but generally trending down.

We can now see, that the poster I am referring to, was forecasting with accurate foresight. The R naught of Auckland is indeed below one.

The fundamentals are simple. Above one the R Naught is revealing a growing outbreak. At one the R Naught is static, the outbreak is flat....neither growing nor shrinking.

Below one, you are watching an outbreak go into decline. If every person who is infected, is spreading the virus to less than one person per infected case.... then mathematically you are talking about a reducing sequence of numbers.

If you maintain that R naught, the only figure you can reach is zero.

Anyway, the Auckland outbreak going below one makes a lot of sense, that region is following the trend seen in Australia when the large waves in NSW crashed.

From here it really comes down to human behavior. If Covid infects only the 'right people' you will see contact tracing, support them to end this thing.

Behind these cases is a massive vaccine wall, it is more like millions of vaccine bubbles, which are stopping in some cases, one idiot from finding another idiot.

We really are, and always have been, in the hands of the people in this.

And we always will be in the hands of the unvaccinated, therefore all means should be taken to get that group over the line and end this thing.

Just keep swimming...

quickymart

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#2830518 11-Dec-2021 21:33

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-family-lived-with-positive-case-for-two-weeks-and-didnt-catch-it/4TV5BTA42TILA5PISGSSCHGQDU/

Paywalled, but a positive story - goes to prove that the vaccine frikken' works, so stop protesting you morons who are doing it every. single. weekend. and just get vaccinated!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-anti-mandate-protest-under-way-heads-to-government-house/5MJJGAG3GEFLR6UXKVM5KOQU44/ - 2000 last weekend, 80-100 this weekend. I hope they get sick of it (or maybe just get sick and realise how bad coronavirus is!) and move on to something else to complain about soon. Really, are they going to keep doing this forever and ever? Also, Leo Molloy labelling himself the "incoming mayor", lol.

Handle9

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#2830520 11-Dec-2021 21:39

quickymart:Also, Leo Molloy labelling himself the "incoming mayor", lol.

He's never been known for humility or having much of a clue.

Batman

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#2830521 11-Dec-2021 21:40

Sup:

Batman: It's statistically impossible to win powerball yet someone wins it every month.

Check out a video that explains the R Naught.

...

Numbers were bouncing around a little but generally trending down.

...

that was a bit tongue in cheek. i'm not disputing mathematics. of course in a mathematical function with R0 below 1, you will get to zero.

but reality is not a mathematical function ... so time will tell.

i seriously doubt we will eradicate covid.

happy to be proven wrong though as usual.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2830529 11-Dec-2021 23:52

quickymart:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-family-lived-with-positive-case-for-two-weeks-and-didnt-catch-it/4TV5BTA42TILA5PISGSSCHGQDU/

Paywalled, but a positive story - goes to prove that the vaccine frikken' works, so stop protesting you morons who are doing it every. single. weekend. and just get vaccinated!

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-anti-mandate-protest-under-way-heads-to-government-house/5MJJGAG3GEFLR6UXKVM5KOQU44/ - 2000 last weekend, 80-100 this weekend. I hope they get sick of it (or maybe just get sick and realise how bad coronavirus is!) and move on to something else to complain about soon. Really, are they going to keep doing this forever and ever? Also, Leo Molloy labelling himself the "incoming mayor", lol.

You know you are from a backward banana republic when pub owner is a celebrity.

Just keep swimming...

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