2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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17125 posts

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#2838566 26-Dec-2021 13:33

wellygary: Giving a very strong indicator that Omicron is going to seriously screw up NZ if it gets in... We should be using every day we have without it to boost as many people as possible.

I expect that is happening in practice. At the same time it's a good time for everyone to have a break if they can over the christmas period. This is going to be a long road.

gzt

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#2838568 26-Dec-2021 13:34

Until the rest of the world makes some inroads the history shows there is another variant coming.

I really wish governments and aid agencies were doing smart things like vaccinating long haul transport routes and other corridors. If that's smart. Unfortunately I don't hear of anything like that.

ezbee

2405 posts

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#2838585 26-Dec-2021 14:19

https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/25/covid-live-news-christmas-day-coronavirus-latest-updates-omicron

""
The NSW health minister has urged residents to reconsider whether they need to call an ambulance or go to hospital due to staff furloughs, warning everyone in the state was likely to be infected with Omicron.
""

Managing something like > 40K of active cases in home isolation must be tricky ?
https://covidlive.com.au/

Not a good sign.

It would be crap if everyone is assuming you have Omicron and you actually got Delta.
Well if unvaccinated or weak prior infection more than a year ago, vs being vaccinated where you are mostly Ok.
Hopefully.

Its not clear how much or long Omicron infection would give immunity to other variants given its differences.
Never mind our genomic sampling is uneven, may focus on areas of interest, travel, and limited by resource.
Omicron itself did not come from a progression of delta, rather earlier almost extinct branch ?.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2838719 26-Dec-2021 19:09

ezbee:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/25/covid-live-news-christmas-day-coronavirus-latest-updates-omicron

""
The NSW health minister has urged residents to reconsider whether they need to call an ambulance or go to hospital due to staff furloughs, warning everyone in the state was likely to be infected with Omicron.
""

Managing something like > 40K of active cases in home isolation must be tricky ?
https://covidlive.com.au/

Not a good sign.

It would be crap if everyone is assuming you have Omicron and you actually got Delta.
Well if unvaccinated or weak prior infection more than a year ago, vs being vaccinated where you are mostly Ok.
Hopefully.

Its not clear how much or long Omicron infection would give immunity to other variants given its differences.
Never mind our genomic sampling is uneven, may focus on areas of interest, travel, and limited by resource.
Omicron itself did not come from a progression of delta, rather earlier almost extinct branch ?.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global

Yeah I saw an American MSM broadcast where they claimed the attribution of omicron was through a Delta lineage. This is inexcusable since we know it is from the another branch of the Covid tree.

The sudden jump in bed numbers in NSW is being blamed on Delta.

I would say that is the price of the politicking around loosening restrictions once omicron was discovered, you may see I.C.U.s with very sick Delta cases and no wriggle room because of general lower acuity pressure from mega omicron influx.

Bottom line, never turn your back on Delta.

I expect our numbers to climb in the coming days as a function of waning immunity over time means little holes or thinner layers in your vaccine wall.
However Bossters an paediatric doses will have a profound impact on the Delta rebound....provided it is not drowned out by omicron.

Just keep swimming...

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2838723 26-Dec-2021 19:17

ezbee:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2021/dec/25/covid-live-news-christmas-day-coronavirus-latest-updates-omicron

""
The NSW health minister has urged residents to reconsider whether they need to call an ambulance or go to hospital due to staff furloughs, warning everyone in the state was likely to be infected with Omicron.
""

Managing something like > 40K of active cases in home isolation must be tricky ?
https://covidlive.com.au/

Not a good sign.

It would be crap if everyone is assuming you have Omicron and you actually got Delta.
Well if unvaccinated or weak prior infection more than a year ago, vs being vaccinated where you are mostly Ok.
Hopefully.

Its not clear how much or long Omicron infection would give immunity to other variants given its differences.
Never mind our genomic sampling is uneven, may focus on areas of interest, travel, and limited by resource.
Omicron itself did not come from a progression of delta, rather earlier almost extinct branch ?.
https://nextstrain.org/ncov/gisaid/global

dont call an ambulance means Australia got this very wrong.

We will not have to issue similar warnings because our system is geared to keep the sick at home, make or break, do it at home.

This is the reality of capacity, in this country, there is only one fifth of the Australian pie to begin with. So we are like...and have been compared to Mexico within the 1st world metrics.

Now before people get on my back, please remember we are talking hundreds of beds, and a variant that will work it's way through five million people, which is why, we have a Pandemic look after you at home plan to guaranty that no matter the variant or the virulence our healthcare will never crash.

Just keep swimming...

gzt

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#2838731 26-Dec-2021 19:40

Sup: our system is geared to keep the sick at home, make or break, do it at home.

I don't think that's the case at all for us in NZ. The system is designed to ensure people who need hospital care are treated in hospital.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2838753 26-Dec-2021 21:33

gzt:
Sup: our system is geared to keep the sick at home, make or break, do it at home.

I don't think that's the case at all for us in NZ. The system is designed to ensure people who need hospital care are treated in hospital.

If existing services in Australia cannot process Ambulance calls, prompting the minister of health in NSW go issue a plase don't call message unless critical (people already know this mantra) then Kiwis need to understand the reasons we have this new system where other first world countries do not.
Why do you think we invented a new service overnight for this one pathogen?

During the Delta phase the home care system has exposed gaps where for example a Papakura GP picked up 20 patients because of the lag in being picked up by in home care.

New Zealand is likely facing ten thousand plus daily cases of Omicron approaching peak.

A daily email system with magnitudes of tens of thousands of cases in a South Auclkand context, with 10% health staff self isolating could be a problem, I will not say how big of a problem because doomsaying is not my intent at all, I see massive challenge for our systems inequities when we get population scale infection like what is unfolding in Aus except they have 5x our capacity to cope.

Just keep swimming...

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Handle9

11391 posts

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#2838754 26-Dec-2021 21:37

Sup: If existing services in Australia cannot process Ambulance calls, prompting the minister of health in NSW go issue a plase don't call message unless critical (people already know this mantra) then Kiwis need to understand the reasons we have this new system where other first world countries do not.

Every country in the world has home based care for Covid. It’s far from unique.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2838756 26-Dec-2021 21:54

Handle9:
Sup: If existing services in Australia cannot process Ambulance calls, prompting the minister of health in NSW go issue a plase don't call message unless critical (people already know this mantra) then Kiwis need to understand the reasons we have this new system where other first world countries do not.

Every country in the world has home based care for Covid. It’s far from unique.

They do.

And ours is proportionate to our hospital capacity which is ranked alongside Mexico.

How do we think Auckland will deal with 80 admissions in a day?

They would reach capacity in less than 7 days which means you have nothing other than in home care where other countries have actual staffed beds.

I do not know why this is hard for people to understand.

Just keep swimming...

Buster

297 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2838807 26-Dec-2021 22:00

Handle9:Every country in the world has home based care for Covid. It’s far from unique.

Certainly Singapore formalised "Get well at home" before NZ.

Handle9

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#2838808 26-Dec-2021 22:04

Buster:
Handle9:Every country in the world has home based care for Covid. It’s far from unique.

Certainly Singapore formalised "Get well at home" before NZ.

Everywhere in the world does it, more or less the same as NZ. Stay home while you are not too sick, go to hospital if you get very unwell.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2838810 26-Dec-2021 22:07

Right so the reason we are the only country in the west who locked down after one Delta case is our capacity which dictates the level of acuity of your sick at home is the same as other countries.

Just keep swimming...

Handle9

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#2838811 26-Dec-2021 22:11

Sup: Right so the reason we are the only country in the west who locked down after one Delta case is our capacity which dictates the level of acuity of your sick at home is the same as other countries.I must have slept through my Nursing career and misread this pandemic.

Sure, if you say so.

Sup

366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2838813 26-Dec-2021 22:21

Handle9:
Sup: Right so the reason we are the only country in the west who locked down after one Delta case is our capacity which dictates the level of acuity of your sick at home is the same as other countries.I must have slept through my Nursing career and misread this pandemic.

Sure, if you say so.

happy to discuss the issues. We disagree on the robustness of the home care system. That is ok.
I am more concerned about it than critical of it, I agree there is no alternative.

However, hospital bed numbers dictate acuity. I.e acuity rises along with case numbers in a small health care system...what happens to acuity in your in home care set up? It rises.

Omicron is no great threat to the vaccinated, it is a threat to systems and the unprotected.

If we are looking at tens of thousands of activee cases or higher, there will be people at home who should not be.

We have already had a preventable death and the apology to the family, that was in the context of less pressure on that system than the factors of thousands that is omicron.

I said at the start we will deal with what comes and most of it will be in peoples homes for good or bad

Just keep swimming...

Eva888

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#2838814 26-Dec-2021 22:49

@Sup Put away the crystal ball and give it a break and enjoy what good times we have over the holidays and summer. The time to deal with the problem is if and when it arrives.

No one can live and enjoy a life in limbo with a constant 'what if,' cloud over their heads. Predictions are always wrong. Take sensible precautions and Que sera sera.

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