2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

Forums › Health and fitness › 2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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366 posts

Ultimate Geek

#2838821 26-Dec-2021 23:18

Eva888: @Sup Put away the crystal ball and give it a break and enjoy what good times we have over the holidays and summer. The time to deal with the problem is if and when it arrives.

No one can live and enjoy a life in limbo with a constant 'what if,' cloud over their heads. Predictions are always wrong. Take sensible precautions and Que sera sera.

Good advice.
I have been watching what is happening in NSW, probably need to block that out too.

Professional habit to prepare for health crises. I need to remind myself I am retired and this is not the serious type thread more chat stuff which is fine. People like positive narratives not early warning mentality.

Just keep swimming...

Eva888

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#2838930 27-Dec-2021 09:36

Sup:
Eva888: @Sup Put away the crystal ball and give it a break and enjoy what good times we have over the holidays and summer. The time to deal with the problem is if and when it arrives.

No one can live and enjoy a life in limbo with a constant 'what if,' cloud over their heads. Predictions are always wrong. Take sensible precautions and Que sera sera.

Good advice.
I have been watching what is happening in NSW, probably need to block that out too.

Professional habit to prepare for health crises. I need to remind myself I am retired and this is not the serious type thread more chat stuff which is fine. People like positive narratives not early warning mentality.

I wasn’t being disrespectful. Naturally, you were involved in health and have now retired so I’m sure you can’t help worrying and your points may be valid and well thought out and appreciated, but it’s Summer and you’re vaccinated and deserve a decent holiday rather than juggling covid numbers in your head. I'm sounding like a digital wife now :)

I just think most people are relieved to still be safe. We have had Covid in the news, in the street, in our face for two years and have become so weary and just want to get on with our lives. Life filled with fear is not living and I’m a committed Prepper.

I sneezed from pollen when we sat outside eating my delicious leftovers with friends yesterday. One of them is very fearful wrapped his arms around his head to protect himself while shouting 'Omicron.' He wasn’t joking either and is a super intelligent person but shrouded in fears. It’s people like that who can be mentally affected by too much negative future modelling.

I’m at the point where I see Michael Baker's glasses come on TV and mutter, mutter unladylike short words and switch channels because I know he’s going to gloooooom. I guess his .gov job depends entirely on keeping the doom alive and his paleness belies the fact that the most light he sees emanates from his screen. I feel like yelling at him to go outside in the sun and BBQ some steaks. (Apologies to the Vegetarians).

Anyway...people rarely change and I’m sure my digital nagging won’t make a scrap of difference to your concerns. Spoke to daughter in NSW, she's obviously taken after her mother and I got, 'it is what it is.'

Let’s just hope for the best.

antonknee

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#2838964 27-Dec-2021 11:10

Eva888: 'it is what it is.'

Nailed it really. No amount of worrying or stressing on an individual level is going to change a thing. Individuals are at the mercy of other people's actions, the government's response, and global society's response. Take sensible personal precautions according to your risk profile, follow the health advice as given, and hope for the best.

Nothing wrong with at home care if it's managed appropriately, particularly given our highly vaccinated population (reduced severity of illness) and the relatively low incidence of acute illness with Covid. The vast majority of cases will be fine to recover at home while being appropriately monitored so that beds can go to those who actually need them.

@Sup remember our delta lockdown (the only Western to lockdown at one case as you say) came amidst an understanding of our health system's weaknesses yes, but also at a time when we had very low vaccination rates, and importantly at a time when our strategy was elimination. We had historically locked down for single cases multiple times before so there was absolutely nothing untoward or unexpected about and no deeper meaning behind doing that for delta.

MaxineN

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#2839161 27-Dec-2021 16:41

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/destiny-churchs-brian-tamaki-allegedly-threatens-to-have-future-mobile-vaccination-clinics-blown-up-police-investigating/PTPTYKN7YSZO3EUEGXIHUB2UPU/

There are so many FUG breaking words I have right now. Just put him in prison already.

Ramblings from a mysterious lady who's into tech. Warning I may often create zingers.

freitasm

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#2839196 27-Dec-2021 17:37

MaxineN:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/destiny-churchs-brian-tamaki-allegedly-threatens-to-have-future-mobile-vaccination-clinics-blown-up-police-investigating/PTPTYKN7YSZO3EUEGXIHUB2UPU/

There are so many FUG breaking words I have right now. Just put him in prison already.

Anyone following this idiot should drop their head in shame. Shame. Shame on you.

MikeB4

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#2839198 27-Dec-2021 17:48

Tamaki is a posturing coward and a charlatan. The media should ignore him and not help his BS.

quickymart

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#2839203 27-Dec-2021 18:10

I hope this time he does actually go to prison. Of course, his legions of followers would protest to the hilt to get him out, as well as paying his bail, etc.

Sad thing is, most of the people who follow him can't afford it. But (even more sad thing is), he doesn't care.

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freitasm

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#2839232 27-Dec-2021 20:03

Look at this idiot... "You are refusing service to me! It's my human right!"

Idiot.

Covid 19 Delta outbreak: Mitre 10 employee praised for trespassing anti-masker shopper - NZ Herald

vexxxboy

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#2839250 27-Dec-2021 20:45

my son has just got pamphlet ,or more a large fridge magnet, from the government he has to deliver saying get prepared for covid 19, it is now the time to plan so your family can be safe through Covid 19, i would have thought it is 2 years to late to start planning what to do when Covid 19 comes .Helpful suggestions , prepare an isolation room and shop for food . can any one help me understand why these were made , they must have cost a fortune and tell you nothing unless you were living under a rock for the past two years.

Common sense is not as common as you think.

freitasm

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#2839310 27-Dec-2021 21:11

@vexxxboy:

Helpful suggestions , prepare an isolation room and shop for food . can any one help me understand why these were made , they must have cost a fortune and tell you nothing unless you were living under a rock for the past two years.

I wouldn't be surprised if most of New Zealand didn't have this in mind. We were not as badly affected as the rest of the world and people are not prepared.

The more people are made aware, the better.

Oblivian

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#2839311 27-Dec-2021 21:21

Part of the summer campaign. Basically the new direction for home isolation. People are still in denial. Or will think they are bulletproof with jabs so won't think of locking themselves up. And yes, have been disconnected since it's basically been BAU outside akl.

Eg

In Auckland, health and welfare providers are now supporting 1495 people who are isolating at home. Of them, 418 have tested positive.

gzt

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#2839317 27-Dec-2021 21:55

NZHerald: In the sermon, Tamaki referenced the upcoming vaccination rollout for 5-to-11-year-olds, set to begin in January, saying, "they want to touch our children, they're coming after our kids"

Basically wrong. As everyone knows, kids cannot be vaccinated without parental consent. Unfortunately this is the kind of thing repeated to scare people. I don't know why.

Later, Tamaki said he would "go to the school" and "fight for them". "I'll stand down there and I'll take that school apart. If you go in there with your wagon, I'll tow your wagon away and I'll get the boys to blow it up and all your syringes, we'll run you out of town."

unfortunately this kind of talk is going to encourage threats and disruption for medical staff on the basis of bad information.

Sup

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Ultimate Geek

#2839319 27-Dec-2021 22:01

According to John Campbell's latest video, he makes a claim that provisional data gathered on omicron shows it is 11% less virulent than Delta when it infects a virgin immune system (not peer reviewed, if you are reading this you are entitled to disregard and go with the South African anecdotes of mild disease...then you could extrapolate this South African population to an Antipodean population that is older and has no real baseline immunity from disease in the unvaccinated) sorry for the long explainers but I do not want to be labelled alarmist here. But anyway according to Doctor Campbell (Doctor of philosophy, Nursing health care sciences, researcher, educator, published author on Human anatomy, Physiology, and pathophysiology)...this non peer reviewed provisional look at omicron shows it could be quite impactful on unvaccinated populations in 'immune naive' countries.

I guess we will see this very clearly in Australia because like New Zealand, they have a core of unvaccinated who have never been infected, and they have children who were intelligible who have never been infected. These cohorts in Australia are numbers in the millions....so we will really really spice girls really know...what is install for us if we watch NSW (or not, we could just imagine their 94% first jab rate has a different context to what will happen here if their situation seems too difficult to process...it maybe that our crises response is a variable that separates us).

In New Zealand we are talking just over one million citizens who will be exposed to a 11% less virulent virus than Delta if the numbers are correct.

The most protective factor in this group is that the bulk are children, who have better outcomes and are much lower risk.

Leaving a few hundred thousand adults, who also tend to be younger in the unvaccinated. Therefore a protective factor applies to that population.

On the risk side, if we are talking 89% of Delta threat....the vaccinated in the older cohort would still suffer significant harms. We know Delta was a threat to this group, so ideally the omicron wave would not be almost the same as Delta .

What I do not understand is what happens with omicron, when you have hundreds of thousands of active cases in an Antipodean system.

NSW had four hundred false negatives over Christmas....given we meet together at this time....it is likely the R naught is at least at 5 from the 23rd till boxing day.

Which gives you two thousand infected minimum and some of the 2000 infectious (I am talking about a mistake before the warning and apology was issued three days later)...lets assume the R naught settled into the twos and threes, lets imagine 2000 people went home from extended family gatherings and spread settled to the known R naught....so potentially four to six thousand more cases in a Christmas super spreader context.

Omicron has broken the NSW world class gold standard systems.

Wait times for testing at major centers are four and a half to five hours...meaning tens of thousands of people have just walked away or not shown up. They have taken on board the NSW minister of health's advice to not get tested unless they are symptomatic...no exceptions....forget if you were from a Covid home.

Turn around times of those tests is up to five days....meaning the last three days of cases at six thousand are more likely well over twenty thousand and therefore today's figures which show the outbreak in NSW is shrinking, might be a little off.

When Omicron hits New Zealand's streets perhaps it will not Tsunami our contact tracing and testing, perhaps we will keep up with 100, 200, 400, 800, 1600, 3200. 6400. 12400, 24800. 49600. and circa 100k in under a month....perhaps we will be fine and the 2.4 day doubling time in a vaccinated system will not happen to us....and the tens of thousands of cases will all be mild in South Auckland and Northland and Timbuktu.

If you got this far thanks for reading...at this juncture, we talk about a NZ system that keeps out omicron till boosters reach the vast majority of the population and kids Vax covers the rest...in which case...all this alarming Aussie data no longer matters.

Our unvaccinated first doses are creeping up. By my calculation, if we can hold off omicron for two months, we will yet again win this thing.

Which is why I probably should not be watching NSW and should go out and enjoy the festive season and forget about all this crystal ball gazing because as I said at the top of the post....this is only provisional analysis and early speculation in this thing is so often proved wrong.

Much healthier to imagine none of this Aussie stuff will happen here.

In Australia the potential 2000 unaware infected people I mentioned, and the ones they infected at R Naught two *4000 un tagged spreaders...some would have got on planes, some would have showed their vaccine passes at airports, some would have showed them at state borders...and hopefully not...some would have showed their clear tests as they landed in Islands in the Pacific and countries all over the world.

As such, when Omicron is here, I will be forgiving of Govt short comings, because this is the most infectious disease in the last 3 billion years so it will have some curve balls, and we are watching living history unfold just now.

As a follower of science, there is a guilty pleasure part of me that is absolutely fascinated by Covid 19, even though I hope we kill it.

Just keep swimming...

gzt

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#2839320 27-Dec-2021 22:03

@vexxxboy: Helpful suggestions , prepare an isolation room and shop for food . can any one help me understand why these were made ,

This sounds a little unusual to me. Are you in an area where there are a high number of people with covid isolating? Do the pamphlets and fridge magnets have any 'authorised by' info? Can you post some pictures? I'm thinking this is a local dhb or iwi initiative of some kind.

Batman

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#2839324 27-Dec-2021 22:21

MaxineN:

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/destiny-churchs-brian-tamaki-allegedly-threatens-to-have-future-mobile-vaccination-clinics-blown-up-police-investigating/PTPTYKN7YSZO3EUEGXIHUB2UPU/

There are so many FUG breaking words I have right now. Just put him in prison already.

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