2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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#2863806 9-Feb-2022 09:41

Jas777:

We are currently looking at 7 months behind Australia but due to our market and capacity of planes etc I would think 12 to 18 months before any semblance of tourist levels back to what the operators would like.

The other added factor is that airfares to NZ and from NZ are going to be much higher.

They said the open up dates (any one from allowed countries and then other countries) are liable to be sooner than their quoted timelines. When Omicron is everwhere in NZ, restricting who can come here and who will bring it in becomes moot

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#2863855 9-Feb-2022 10:51

Jas777:

Based on the numbers they are predicting in the new NZ model what is the point of Red Traffic light? as the numbers look like what has happened overseas with less restrictions than here.

I think you will find the aim is to slow, spread and lower the peak of the outbreak to help protect the health system.
I believe the average doubling time of cases reported in other places without restriction was 2-3 days.
We are at 4-5 days doubling time.

With no gatherings of 100+ people super spreader events are limited in size.

Yes after Covid becomes endemic things will/should change - but until then....

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#2863865 9-Feb-2022 11:12

tdgeek:

They said the open up dates (any one from allowed countries and then other countries) are liable to be sooner than their quoted timelines. When Omicron is everwhere in NZ, restricting who can come here and who will bring it in becomes moot

Yes, but even if the dates do come forward the constraints to the NZ market are not going away time soon.

tdgeek

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#2863891 9-Feb-2022 11:56

Jas777:

Yes, but even if the dates do come forward the constraints to the NZ market are not going away time soon.

Solution? I guess we could have been the forerunner to opening up to allow tourism to flourish. We can do the vaccinations and boosters later, etc. Others have done that, and it wasnt that long ago there were tents outside a Melbourne hospital, and thats super mild compared to most other countries.

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#2863954 9-Feb-2022 12:27

PolicyGuy:
chatterbox:
It’s possible to come up with a plan if more details given (but I wouldn’t on a public forum). But having no plan isn’t fair on the travellers either. Unless you tell them up front they’ll have to sort themselves out. I personally would expect some options/suggestions for accommodation and transport to be provided by the tour operator but I’d also have my own back up plans.

If the plans aren’t reasonable I wouldn’t actually run the tour 🤷‍♀️

A tour operator that I have used emailed to say that they had decided they couldn't operate under Red Traffic Light.
They have cancelled all tours and are 'hibernating' until further notice.

I guess that means all their tour guides are out of work :(

Yes that’s the unfortunate outcome until the guidance around contacts change or there’s sufficient availability of rapid antigen tests to shift to a test to stay type strategy or some other alternative.

chatterbox

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#2863965 9-Feb-2022 12:34

Ge0rge:
chatterbox: Geektastic Hotels/airlines have been offering free cancellations for a long time. It gave people confidence to book. That should be clarified in advance of the tour.

I think Geektastic could tell you just how well those claims of "free cancellations" are working out here

Weird. I haven’t had any issues with cancellations when they’ve been advertised.

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#2864045 9-Feb-2022 14:17

tdgeek:

Solution? I guess we could have been the forerunner to opening up to allow tourism to flourish. We can do the vaccinations and boosters later, etc. Others have done that, and it wasnt that long ago there were tents outside a Melbourne hospital, and thats super mild compared to most other countries.

Did I say open earlier? There is no solution, I was just pointing out it will be 12 to 18 months due to constraints, which will affect NZ more so than other countries.

We are small fry so we will have to wait for lots of things longer than others do.

Going to be interesting to see what happens next year, from younger people I talk to there could be a mass exodus of 20 - 25 year old coming in 2023.

ezbee

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#2864131 9-Feb-2022 14:58

Well those that came for refuge may not want to pay NZ taxes for too long
and go back to their lives overseas once its stable in other countries.

We have 100's k extra come in its no surprise if many return.
Young people have always travelled, so no surprise they will when employment returns to popular OE spots.

I've known of a few migrants who could not put up with the low incomes in NZ and returned to high paid jobs offshore.
Once they had citizenship then NZ remained a retirement option once they built up savings overseas.
If that was attractive, though attitude on leaving maybe not.

It was certainly a thing for overseas visitors I had to show around, very interested in the lifestyle, a bit appalled by incomes.

Of course if something else pops up it will be cries for rescue flights and such again :-)

Snakes and Ladders, Swings and Roundabouts.

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#2864137 9-Feb-2022 15:04

Jas777:

The other added factor is that airfares to NZ and from NZ are going to be much higher.

I think this is an important point.

It seems to me that a huge chunk of the NZ international tourist industry are suffering from a severe attack of the nostalgias.
The think that if The Government would just make testing and isolating go away, then things would almost instantly go back to the way they were in the Good Old Days (i.e. 2019) and all their problems would be over.

I think they're wrong

Airlines have lost billions of dollars, got rid of hundreds of older airliners, and sacked tens of thousands of highly skilled staff in the last two years. They now need to make more profit and they haven't got the aircraft, pilots, cabin crew or ground engineers to fly as many flights as they used to. Oh, and fuel prices are way, waaay up.
Air fares aren't going to be as cheap as they used to be. This will reduce the number of 'backpacker' budget tourists we are likely to see in NZ.

Then there's the fear factor. How many of these almost entirely young people and their families are going to feel happy about any sort of travel to a place where they could at a moment's notice be 'stuck' indefinitely and uninsurably? My guess, not nearly so many.

Any business that's betting on a return of "2019 business" in 2022 or even 2023 is IMO heading for a very unpleasant time.

The implications for the NZ hospo & horticultural industries of vastly reduced numbers of backpackers and of south- and east-asian tertiary students - cheap amenable / exploitable labour - are also a bit worrying for them.

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#2864146 9-Feb-2022 15:43

Jas777:

Going to be interesting to see what happens next year, from younger people I talk to there could be a mass exodus of 20 - 25 year old coming in 2023.

I wouldn't be surprised if we see it much earlier than that. Young people can leave in the next few months and go to Australia/Europe/UK/USA etc with no quarantine. For younger ones think of how inflation is affecting them now and how many hundreds of thousand dollars housing has increased in the last 24 months in their home towns.

It happened before and I can easily see it happening again, with no ideas on immigration it could start to ease some house values in the short to medium term.

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#2864148 9-Feb-2022 15:53

PolicyGuy:

Jas777:

The other added factor is that airfares to NZ and from NZ are going to be much higher.

I think this is an important point.

True, but the NZ tourism sector have been trying for a long time to find ways of getting out from the low end of the Value chain (Backpackers, short stay etc, )

IF they play it right this might be the easiest way to focus on the top end of the Value chain...

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PolicyGuy

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#2864159 9-Feb-2022 16:05

wellygary:

PolicyGuy:

Jas777: "The other added factor is that airfares to NZ and from NZ are going to be much higher. "

I think this is an important point.

True, but the NZ tourism sector have been trying for a long time to find ways of getting out from the low end of the Value chain (Backpackers, short stay etc, )

They've been saying that relatively recently, but their service delivery model appears to depend on using backpackers on working holiday visas and tertiary students with (and without) work-allowed visas. These unfortunates are paid minimum wages and required to work exploitative rosters.

frankv

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#2864167 9-Feb-2022 16:25

Jas777:

Going to be interesting to see what happens next year, from younger people I talk to there could be a mass exodus of 20 - 25 year old coming in 2023.

And presumably less demand for housing, perhaps even a surplus? And locals will have the opportunity to spend their money on overseas holidays again, so less cash slopping about looking for investment opportunities. So a (somewhat overdue) correction of the housing market.

frankv

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#2864169 9-Feb-2022 16:33

PolicyGuy:

This will reduce the number of 'backpacker' budget tourists we are likely to see in NZ.

But I guess the ones who do come will stay for longer and do more... having spent (say) $5K to get here, they won't be planning to come back, and, relatively speaking, the Kawarau bungee won't be quite so financially daunting.

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#2864170 9-Feb-2022 16:34

wellygary:

True, but the NZ tourism sector have been trying for a long time to find ways of getting out from the low end of the Value chain (Backpackers, short stay etc, )

IF they play it right this might be the easiest way to focus on the top end of the Value chain...

this is so easy to do. they have found all sorts of ways to tax everybody from head to toe.

tax.

proportionately, the same tax amount will be of little consequence to high spenders and a big chunk to low spenders

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