2019 Novel Coronavirus Covid-19 Discussion

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204 posts

Master Geek

#3051411 18-Mar-2023 05:20

Batman:

one of the 2 antivirals is NZ is "useless" and "could fuel virus mutations"

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/131447503/health-officials-decided-a-covid19-antiviral-should-no-longer-be-used-why-didnt-prescribers-know

Had a quick google and it seems Australia and the UK changed their position on Molnupiravir last year. Always seemed a bit dodgy it had high efficacy during the interim report for the trial and by the end it was down to 30% without explanation. And that was in the unvaccinated population so was always going to be marginal in the vaccinated and then Omicron. That drug's been a last resort from the beginning.

ezbee

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Uber Geek

#3051661 18-Mar-2023 19:18

New data links Covid-19’s origins to raccoon dogs at Wuhan market
Analysis of gene sequences by international team finds Covid-positive samples rich in raccoon dog DNA
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/mar/17/covid-19-origins-raccoon-dogs-wuhan-market-data

""
Swabs collected from stalls at the Huanan seafood market in the two months after it was shut down on 1 January 2020 were previously found to contain both Covid and human DNA. When the findings were published last year, Chinese researchers stated that the samples contained no animal DNA.

That conclusion has now been overturned by an international team of scientists. Their analysis of gene sequences posted by the Chinese team to the scientific database Gisaid found that some of the Covid-positive samples were rich in DNA from raccoon dogs. Traces of DNA belonging to other mammals, including civets, were also present in Covid-positive samples.
""

Confirmed to be sold and present in these markets in surveys prior to the outbreak.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41598-021-91470-2

Animal sales from Wuhan wet markets immediately prior to the COVID-19 pandemic | Scientific Reports (nature.com)

quickymart

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#3051675 18-Mar-2023 20:30

So not bats or pangolins now? Interesting.

Batman

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#3051687 18-Mar-2023 21:31

ezbee:

New data links Covid-19’s origins to raccoon dogs at Wuhan market
Analysis of gene sequences by international team finds Covid-positive samples rich in raccoon dog DNA
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/mar/17/covid-19-origins-raccoon-dogs-wuhan-market-data

""

from the article

"The latest genetic data does not prove raccoon dogs or other mammals were infected with Covid and spread it at the market. If the animals were infected, they may have contracted the virus from infected humans."

ezbee

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Uber Geek

#3051689 18-Mar-2023 21:40

Well depends on what you mean by origin how far back in distance and time you go.

Apparently after a short halt for SARS 1, the exotic animal trade quickly picked up speed.
It was even promoted as a way for farmers to catch up with rising income of city folk.
With rising wealth in cities it became bigger than ever.

Animals taken from the bush and mixed with other animals smuggled from distant places.
Farming of more animals that are common faire in rural China amongst these, with further mixing.
The intersection with bats may have happened anywhere in the chain.

Racoon dogs etc are omnivores, so your bats die, or you have excess offal from butchering them,
its food for the other animals. win/win.
Mink are mentioned as well and it was found out in European Mink farms SARS-Cov-2 moved very well in Mink.

Over decades it probably stewed in this mix of operations.
Mix of animals, maybe more than one got involved, as it skipped around hosts picking up changes?.

If Lab had close ancestor samples, it would have come from their sampling in the field.
So even Lab leak is in my view a moot point, as it would have got to the lab from the environment.

A focus on testing and moving up these chains rather than cleaning and eradication may have filled out the picture,
but its not the way things are done there.

If lab leak is such an annoyance to China its their own fault for destroying the chance to find a trail.

Batman

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#3051730 19-Mar-2023 08:50

ezbee:

If lab leak is such an annoyance to China its their own fault for destroying the chance to find a trail.

exactly

though i don't blame them. have some european friends who said look if this happened in mexico or spain their govt would have done exactly the same. cover up cover up cover up. it's normal practice for most governments.

but as far as facts are concerned, as far as we know today, it could have come from the lab, it could have come from elsewhere. it may or may not have, but nobody outside of china knows.

the important thing is, we all have survived the pandemic, and i've moved on since i survived the series of artificial and then the live vaccine. box ticked.

freitasm

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#3051735 19-Mar-2023 09:22

Batman:
the important thing is, we all have survived the pandemic, and i've moved on since i survived the series of artificial and then the live vaccine. box ticked.

Except for the millions who died.

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Batman

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#3051747 19-Mar-2023 10:44

could well be my turn next week but i have made my peace long ago

also that reminded me to look at our stats.

4000 deaths out of 5 million, that's (so far) about under 0.1% a pretty significant number

*22 deaths in the last week

500 unvaccinated, 500 had 2 doses, 3000 had booster - someone can crunch some numbers on pfizer vaccine effectiveness here if we know the denominators

https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-current-cases#daily-cases

https://www.health.govt.nz/covid-19-novel-coronavirus/covid-19-data-and-statistics/covid-19-case-demographics#deaths

heavenlywild

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#3051807 19-Mar-2023 11:49

Thanks for the links @batman.

I'm actually very surprised by those death stats.

If I'm reading it right, are the numbers saying the vaccinated and boosted folks are dying in higher numbers?

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Batman

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#3051811 19-Mar-2023 12:06

heavenlywild: Thanks for the links @batman.

I'm actually very surprised by those death stats.

If I'm reading it right, are the numbers saying the vaccinated and boosted folks are dying in higher numbers?

If 100% vaccinated, then 100% of deaths are vaccinated.

So the denominator is important.

We are highly vaccinated so our vaccinated deaths are going to be very high.

Rikkitic

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#3051812 19-Mar-2023 12:06

heavenlywild: Thanks for the links @batman.

I'm actually very surprised by those death stats.

If I'm reading it right, are the numbers saying the vaccinated and boosted folks are dying in higher numbers?

This is how dangerous rumours start. If you read the chart, it says 'This contribution can range from death not related, for instance someone with COVID-19 who dies in a car accident; to COVID-19 being a contributing cause'

In other words, these are total death figures, which are about in the range of what they would be anyway. People die all the time. The question is if more than the usual number would have died during this period, and whether that relates to vaccination status. Since more people were vaccinated than not, more vaccinated people would have died from whatever cause.

Plesse igmore amd axxept applogies in adbance fir anu typos

tdgeek

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#3051813 19-Mar-2023 12:08

heavenlywild: Thanks for the links @batman.

I'm actually very surprised by those death stats.

If I'm reading it right, are the numbers saying the vaccinated and boosted folks are dying in higher numbers?

Higher numbers of vaccinated and boosted people exist. So even though they are given great protection, its not 100% protection. Stats can be twisted.

heavenlywild

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#3051818 19-Mar-2023 12:09

I think the stats can be displayed in a better manner because I'm not trying to start rumours or anything but having a quick squiz without digging deeper.

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ezbee

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#3051827 19-Mar-2023 12:38

Um, well,
When most of the population are vaccinated and boosted, and that goes double for aged and aged care.
Considering 90% to >95%, even one age bracket near 100% vaccinated.
Survivor bias, the other more vulnerable unvaccinated aged culled out earlier?

The indications from USA are that the aged rate has reduced to a certain level and then stops still a bit higher than normal prior pandemic rate.

Being old being a key measure of vulnerability and co-morbidities.
Immune system, especially T-Cell activity to new threats seems to be significantly slower in aged.
T-Cell system may start to slow down re learning new threats as early as 45 apparently.

Way back someone also noted that Australia doing better with the aged SARS survival may be down to better medical care available generally.

Knowing a couple of cases where Hospital care was under constant threat of being terminated and tossed into aged care facility.
( To be independent or live with care from partner rehab is critical )
I'm not surprised if this is so.

Everyone wants tax cuts, so don't expect any 'tax and spend' on Healthcare.
There is a new superhighway over there that needs building, sports stadia, earthquakes, floods etc.

trig42

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#3052624 21-Mar-2023 08:54

For the first time since March of 2020, worldwide daily deaths have gone below 1000 per day.

Mentioned in this article:

Covid Deaths Hurt UK, US More than Singapore or New Zealand (bloomberg.com)

Backed up by WHO graphs (graph show weekly deaths):

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