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Fred99
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  #2773436 7-Sep-2021 10:34
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MikeB4:

 

Citation?

 

 

Rate of hospitalisation by age band gives a pretty good proxy as to severity of disease by age band.

 

Chart below gives data from NSW.  Unfortunately the columns on the right don't give much of a guide as to how much worse delta is, as rather than "then and now" it's "total and now".  I think someone with an agenda may have influenced how that data is presented.

 

Anyway, in an immunologically naive population with a large outbreak but still with a high probability that most cases are being picked up by PCR, only 2-4% of age bands under 17 are being hospitalised.

 

I did read a news article about a higher ratio (~25%) of the young children who are hospitalised end up being admitted to ICU than other age groups (IIRC this was public data from US CDC) but that's not showing what it may seem to be at first glance.  A higher % of the low number of children admitted to hospital have co-morbidities, so as well as being far more likely to get sick enough to need hospital care, when those with co-morbidities do get sick, they're much more likely to get very sick - when most kids without comorbidities don't get very sick - if at all.  (Hope that makes sense).

 

The stated 11% of all cases being admitted for hospital care in NSW is very frightening.

 

 

 




freitasm
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  #2773466 7-Sep-2021 11:35
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Please discuss the vaccine as per topic - other discussion about covid should go into its own thread.





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Scott3
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  #2773893 7-Sep-2021 20:10
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Batman:

 

Scott3:

 

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/jcvi-issues-updated-advic
e-on-covid-19-vaccination-of-children-aged-12-to-15

 

They note that the benefits of the vaccine exceed the risk for children in this age group, but say the margin in not enough to enough to justify a recommendation.

 

Oddly they only seem to consider the individual, not wider benefits of reduced transmission.

 

 

"For the vast majority of children, SARS-CoV-2 infection is asymptomatic or mildly symptomatic and will resolve without treatment."

 

Is that still true for delta?

 

Re transmission, i thought vaccination doesn't affect transmission of delta?

 

 

That press release was only published on Saturday, so it would be fair to assume it delta is considered.

 

Obviously the UK regulators view is at odds with the opinion of Medsafe who has approved the vaccine for general use in ages 12+

 

 

 

Based on the NSW data from Fred99, 3% of 12-17 year olds with detected covid-19 get hospitalized. Which while a small percentage, would still be plenty to overload a hospital system. Perhaps due to the UK's wide exposure to covid-19 over the last 18 months there is a lot more natural immunity their, which impacts the regulators view.

 

 

 

Regarding the vaccine reducing transmission of the delta strain, consensus seems to be that it substantially does, but the science is still being done on exactly how much. Somewhere between a 40% and 70% reduction in transmission seems likely.

 

 




Handle9
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  #2773916 7-Sep-2021 20:31
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Fred99:

 

MikeB4:

 

Citation?

 

 

Rate of hospitalisation by age band gives a pretty good proxy as to severity of disease by age band.

 

Chart below gives data from NSW.  Unfortunately the columns on the right don't give much of a guide as to how much worse delta is, as rather than "then and now" it's "total and now".  I think someone with an agenda may have influenced how that data is presented.

 

Anyway, in an immunologically naive population with a large outbreak but still with a high probability that most cases are being picked up by PCR, only 2-4% of age bands under 17 are being hospitalised.

 

I did read a news article about a higher ratio (~25%) of the young children who are hospitalised end up being admitted to ICU than other age groups (IIRC this was public data from US CDC) but that's not showing what it may seem to be at first glance.  A higher % of the low number of children admitted to hospital have co-morbidities, so as well as being far more likely to get sick enough to need hospital care, when those with co-morbidities do get sick, they're much more likely to get very sick - when most kids without comorbidities don't get very sick - if at all.  (Hope that makes sense).

 

The stated 11% of all cases being admitted for hospital care in NSW is very frightening.

 

 

 

Sorry @freitasm just closing this off.

 

The UK hospitalisation stats from January and now are much the same for kids even though Delta is far more infectious. 

 

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/hospitals#hospital-admissions-by-age

 

 

 

 


floydbloke
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  #2774183 8-Sep-2021 08:14
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Good to see the Employment Relations Authority being responsible and sensible:

 

https://www.stuff.co.nz/business/opinion-analysis/300401535/could-the-no-jab-no-job-rule-become-legal

 

 

In finding that the dismissal was justified, the authority rejected the applicant’s argument that their stance on vaccination “does not impact any other person in the workplace”.

 

The authority held that this was unsustainable given that every employee has an obligation under the Health and Safety at Work Act to take “reasonable care that his or her acts, or omissions do not adversely affect the health and safety of others”.

 

The authority further found that Customs had every right to determine that the position could only be undertaken by a vaccinated worker.

 

In fact, the authority went even further stating: “I commend Customs for the work they undertook that persuaded an overwhelming majority of its employees to access the vaccine when society is bedevilled by various contentious sources of information on this subject”.

 





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freitasm
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  #2776062 10-Sep-2021 14:37
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Sorry, couldn't resist sharing:

 





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Eva888
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  #2776302 11-Sep-2021 10:28
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This article rather deflating in light of NZ following a similar course with Pfizer. Worth reading the entire article. I wish we were given a choice of vaccines as in other countries so that those that prefer a different type could have this option even if it meant paying for them ourselves. I recall Novavax is being considered as a booster shot in NZ.


https://www.science.org/content/article/grim-warning-israel-vaccination-blunts-does-not-defeat-delt

*What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,” says Uri Shalit, a bioinformatician at the Israel Institute of Technology (Technion) who has consulted on COVID-19 for the government. “One of the big stories from Israel [is]: ‘Vaccines work, but not well enough.’”*



Edit fixed url


ezbee
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  #2776339 11-Sep-2021 12:12
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Israel has something more going on, seeing differences between them and other countries. 
When Israel removed covid restrictions in June, vaccination rate had stalled at about 5.1M fully vaccinated of about 8.8M Population.
Something like 1 million eligible unvaccinated were reported , and groups that gather for religious/family events
About 58% of total population fully double vaccinated at 1st June.

 

Once the outbreak came back, there was a spike in vaccination, but too late to be very effective for those people in that outbreak mostly.
87% of Hospital admissions over 60 dominating numbers, so talk of 3rd dose prioritized for over 60 and vulnerable.
Age corrected is still very good for population overall, and some studies elsewhere. Antivax call foul on age correction.

 

Israel rate is still however about 60% USA rate, highly vaccinated Portugal most vaccinated in EU lowest Hospitalizations.
Germany seems to have done very well compared with other EU nations but lower vaccination than some paradoxically.

 

We are really buying time to vaccinate as much as we can, when rate tails off then 'hard' decisions come, hopefully then we have data from rest of world.
On on Novavax, we do have that coming early 2022,
Its just that Novavax have been delayed by problems getting sufficient in demand production capacity. Not being big Pharma.

 

To save taking up too much space positing a pic here is the link to chart I was looking at.
https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-hospital-admissions-covid-per-million?country=GBR~USA~ISR~DEU~FRA~ITA~ESP~PRT~DNK


Fred99
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  #2776393 11-Sep-2021 14:50
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Eva888:  “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,”

 

Meaningless comment on it's own - as if everyone was vaccinated, then all of the hospitalised covid patients will be vaccinated.


freitasm
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  #2781059 20-Sep-2021 12:23
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"I asked him to please prescribe me Ivermectin as a prophylactic for Covid-19."

 

The vaccine is prophylactic, not a horse dewormer.

 

Why have you restricted Ivermectin? - a Official Information Act request to Pharmaceutical Management Agency - FYI





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Rikkitic
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  #2781066 20-Sep-2021 12:31
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Does this mean that anti-vaxers who use prophylactics are worm-free?

 

 





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frankv
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  #2781182 20-Sep-2021 15:15
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freitasm:

 

Why have you restricted Ivermectin? - a Official Information Act request to Pharmaceutical Management Agency - FYI

 

 

Reading through the documents, especially the last from MedSafe, a doctor in NZ can legally prescribe ivermectin for covid, even though it's not approved for that. But I expect it would be a very brave (or foolish) doctor who would do that, given the lack of evidence of its efficacy.

 

 


Batman

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  #2781430 21-Sep-2021 07:51
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so i read from the main thread that pfizer to using 1/3 dose in 5-11 year old and maybe 1/10 dose in even smaller people/

 

does anyone know the dose for 12-15 year old?

 

you'd think they'd use 1/2 adult dose not full dose


Fred99
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  #2781457 21-Sep-2021 09:08
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Batman:

 

so i read from the main thread that pfizer to using 1/3 dose in 5-11 year old and maybe 1/10 dose in even smaller people/

 

does anyone know the dose for 12-15 year old?

 

you'd think they'd use 1/2 adult dose not full dose

 

 

It's full dose.


djtOtago
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  #2781505 21-Sep-2021 09:20
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Most medications consider you to be an adult at the age of 12 years and over.


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